Last week, I pulled off a 10-5 record to bring my year-to-date slate to 113-77-1 (60%).
NOTE: Published initially on Monday, Dec. 7. All games will be played on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Baltimore 27, Dallas 19 (Tuesday night): As far as lifetime franchise resumes are concerned, Dallas’ list of accomplishments outshines Baltimore’s. However, teams from Charm City have sometimes proven to be a big obstacle for the Cowboys. The first time Dallas played in a Super Bowl (5), it lost to… Baltimore. The last team in the NFL to beat the Ravens for the first time was… Dallas, finally winning in 2016 after losing the first four meetings. On top of that, the Cowboys have never won at M&T Bank Stadium in three previous tries; the Ravens have outscored them by 88-39 in those games, including a shutout in 2000. A goose egg won’t happen this time. Still, for all the Ravens’ inconsistencies and problems this year, their overall talent level and necessary depth in the wake of the COVID crisis are decidedly higher than those of the Cowboys.
Los Angeles Rams 27, New England 17 (Thursday night): Not only are the Patriots playing back-to-back road games against the Los Angeles teams, but they are also doing so within five days. I have to believe they stayed out west in between and didn’t fly back home. Playing the hard-luck Chargers is one thing, but it’s quite another to take on the Rams, a much-more-talented team from football’s toughest division. It won’t completely serve as revenge for Super Bowl 53 – or 36, for that matter, when the team was in St. Louis – but the Patriots’ time is done, their blowout over the Chargers last week notwithstanding. The Rams, tied with Seattle for the NFC West lead, are much closer to elite status.
Dallas 30, Cincinnati 16: This would be perfect for one of those sappy Hallmark Channel movies, “Andy Dalton Goes Home.” However, it’s ironic that while Dalton played in Cincinnati all those years, he’s actually from Texas. Plus, the new face of the Bengals’ franchise, quarterback and Ohio native Joe Burrow, is the one who is truly home here. But the bottom line is that Burrow won’t be playing, and Dalton will. The Cowboys are far from the great team they envisioned themselves to be, but they’re better than Cincinnati right now.
Tennessee 40, Jacksonville 9: Remember when former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher used to brag that Jacksonville was his team’s second home? These days, the northeast Florida city serves as a comfort zone for every team in the league. It’s an AFC South Division game between teams that know each other well, but it’s clear to see which one is contending for the playoffs and which has lost 11 straight to put itself in the running for the top overall draft pick. The Jags fought gamely at Minnesota last week before falling in overtime, while the Titans nearly dug out of a big hole against Cleveland.
Carolina 19, Denver 13: The Panthers are coming off their rather-late bye week and heading right into this Super Bowl 50 rematch. They won’t have Cam Newton, but they have the home field and a decidedly much better quarterback situation than the Broncos, who have had a very chaotic year in that department. A truly uninspiring matchup, to be sure.
Houston 23, Chicago 17: The Texans might be experiencing that new-coach bounce, the sensation of having a 500-pound gorilla being taken off their backs and playing like they have nothing to lose. They’ll be in the Windy City for this one, playing a team that started strong at 5-1 but looked like a paper tiger all the while. Meanwhile, things have gotten so bad for the Bears – losers of six straight – they blew a lead against Detroit last week.
Kansas City 24, Miami 20: Baltimore fans have seen the long-ago Colts and Ravens each take part in double-overtime playoff games, but it was these two teams that took part in the longest game in NFL history. On Christmas Day, 1971, the Dolphins outlasted the host Chiefs on their way to Super Bowl 6, where they lost to Dallas. This one is in Miami – the Dolphins are in the midst of a three-game homestand – and while Miami should be commended for its sound coaching and smart rebuild (it has won seven of eight, and its 12-game record is the best the club has had since 2003), the Chiefs should be able to win what could be an entertaining game. Kansas City already has a playoff berth clinched, but it would like to win its division as soon as possible.
New York Giants 26, Arizona 23: It’s my hunch play of the week, considering Arizona comes from football’s best division, and the Giants are part of the worst. But New York has put together a fine run of play late in the season with four straight wins, what with a possible division title by attrition right in front of them. Not only that, the west-to-east travel bug, which hasn’t been as lethal lately, will be jumping up and biting the Cardinals.
Tampa Bay 31, Minnesota 25: The Buccaneers are coming off their bye, which followed a gutty, high-profile loss to Kansas City on their home field. They’re back home again, this time to face a Minnesota squad that is trying to shift into higher gear even though it may be too late (witness the fact they had to struggle to beat a bad Jacksonville team in overtime last week). Say what you will about Tom Brady, the six-time Super Bowl winner is a fierce competitor, and he probably used the bye week to get in his teammates’ faces and remind them of the opportunity their team has. Meanwhile, former Dallas kicker Dan Bailey has struggled for the Vikings this year.
San Francisco 20, Washington 17: These two once met in a playoff game that saw Washington kicker Mark Moseley miss four field goals… and his side WON! It might be that kind of game between these two struggling clubs, who have shown some signs of life lately. That’s especially true of the host 49ers, who notched a recent win over the Rams that could prove large in division and conference tiebreakers down the line.
Las Vegas 27, Indianapolis 24: A very underrated matchup with conference-tiebreaker implications in a crowded AFC field. Las Vegas won’t win its division, but the Colts still might take theirs, and they need a crucial road win here to keep pace with Tennessee. Vegas raised its profile through the midseason period before getting mystifyingly blown out at Atlanta. Last week’s last-gasp win over the Jets was the perfect tonic, and that should carry over into this tough game. The Colts defense continues to shine; it has recorded three safeties this year.
Seattle 43, New York Jets 10: Uh… it’s the Jets… moving on…
Atlanta 34, Los Angeles Chargers 19: In the Houston-Chicago capsule above, I spoke of “new-coach bounce.” Atlanta definitely has a spring in its step under Raheem Morris and should be able to overcome some jet lag and win out west. It is rather discouraging for Chargers fans to see rookie quarterback Justin Herbert have the kind of year he is having. Yet, he probably won’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors because of all the losses piling up. Last week’s 45-0 home loss to New England was the worst in the Chargers’ 61-year history.
New Orleans 29, Philadelphia 13: The Eagles, a usually-tough team from a perennially-tough city, aren’t displaying their trademark peskiness this year, as injuries have decimated is actually a very talented roster. This is one team that should be glad that few fans are on hand to see it in person, for their trademark boos would ring long and loud up and down Broad Street. If the Phillies were playing next door, they might think the noise was all directed at them. Meanwhile, the Saints (my preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl) have clinched a playoff berth for a fourth straight year.
Green Bay 33, Detroit 15: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the seventh in history to reach 400 touchdown passes (and the fastest to reach that mark), looks and sounds like someone who doesn’t want to give up his job anytime soon, despite his team’s drafting of Stanford quarterback Jordan Love. I personally thought Green Bay would take a step back this year, but instead, it has stepped up big-time into a position where it could get a high playoff seed and a slightly-easier road to Tampa. There will be potholes, to be sure, but nothing like the ones facing the perennially-awful Lions; admittedly, Detroit, under interim coach Darrell Bevell, deserves credit for last week’s come-from-behind win over the Bears.
Buffalo 30, Pittsburgh 27 (Sunday night): By far, it’s the week’s best game and what looked to be the best and final opportunity for someone to knock off the undefeated Steelers (before Washington came along, that is). Buffalo is in the midst of a stretch of four straight non-Sunday afternoon games, three of them on the road and this home game against Pittsburgh. Both teams have good defenses but with linebackers Devin Bush and Bud Dupree out with season-ending injuries and unavailable to spy on Josh Allen or chase down ball carriers, that might make the difference in what should be an amazing Sunday-night showcase in western New York. It’s also rather amazing that a franchise with backfield standouts like Jerome Bettis, Rocky Bleier, Franco Harris, and others can’t seem to run the ball very well these days.
Baltimore 31, Cleveland 13 (Monday night): The Ravens’ COVID outbreak was so widespread and pronounced that Cleveland’s problems with the virus have flown under the radar; its facility has had to be closed several times last few weeks. Despite that, I’m sure Browns fans must be thinking that decades’ worth of bad breaks is finally turning their way – quarterback Baker Mayfield threw four touchdowns in the first half last week, the first Brown to do that since 1951, and the team has one of the league’s best rush attacks – but this team has performed very poorly most of the time when facing elite clubs. The Ravens are a division foe that is entirely comfortable playing there (15-6 in Cleveland), and their backs are against the wall as far as running down a playoff spot is concerned. This game will serve as part of the Ravens’ inevitable rush towards second place and a wild-card berth.
