With the thrice-rescheduled Baltimore-Pittsburgh game now to be played on Wednesday, and with two other games getting reshuffled, I moved the Ravens-Steelers game to Week 13 for my purposes, turning a 15-game week into a 16-game venture. Going into December, my hit-rate for the season stands at 59%.
NOTE: All games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Baltimore 26, Pittsburgh 23 (Wednesday afternoon): Yes, there are serious COVID issues around both teams, but this incredible AFC North Division rivalry isn’t diminished. It has seen many splits (to be exact, 15 over the 24 seasons since the Ravens have existed). On six occasions, the teams split by winning at each other’s stadium (1999, 2000, 2001, 2010, 2012, 2018), and I think that pattern will repeat itself this time. Pittsburgh, going for its sixth-lifetime sweep of the Ravens, won a four-point decision at Baltimore just four weeks ago. Still, the Ravens – despite costly turnovers, a lack of offensive identity, and overall consistency – did a lot of things very well in that game and were in a good position to win late in the fourth quarter. On top of that, the Ravens have won in each of their last two games in Pittsburgh. But Baltimore has to get a lead, hold on to it and show more stamina down the stretches of games, which will be even tougher to do with so many players missing. A similarly-depleted Ravens team beat the Steelers in 2015 with Ryan Mallet at quarterback, so why not now?
Tennessee 31, Cleveland 24: I would never have figured that in early December, this game would be key to the AFC playoff race, but that’s 2020 for you. In what should be a fast-moving game between two terrific running attacks, I’ll take the host Titans and Derrick Henry’s relentless pounding – one that has produced three straight 100-yard games and eight consecutive century efforts on the road – over Nick Chubb and the Browns. Cleveland has an 8-3 record for the first time since 1994, but it again struggled mightily to beat a bad team in Jacksonville last week. Quarterback Baker Mayfield had gone three straight games without a touchdown pass until he saw the Jaguars.
Miami 30, Cincinnati 17: This could have been a mouth-watering battle between two of the league’s good young quarterbacks, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. But, we all know what happened to Burrow. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa and his teammates (or it could be Ryan Fitzpatrick) will be at home for the first of three straight weeks and should keep themselves in the AFC playoff mix with a comfortable win here.
Las Vegas 40, New York Jets 10: These were the two franchises that met in the infamous 1968 “Heidi Game” (kids, ask your parents), but that game was in Oakland. This one will be on the East Coast, and it features a strong playoff contender against the squad that is, by far, the worst team in the league; it was the first one in either conference to be eliminated from the playoff chase. It’s a game that, to be certain, won’t have enough drama for Heidi to even matter, even though the Raiders turned in a mystifyingly flat effort in Atlanta last week, their second straight loss.
Indianapolis 23, Houston 20: The Texans are home for this one and are coming off back-to-back solid road efforts at New England and Detroit. The latter was a Thanksgiving game, so the Texans have had a good bit of rest before this key AFC South Division clash. But the Colts have been more consistent and have more for which to play. In a scheduling quirk more characteristic of the Canadian Football League, these two teams play each other twice within three weeks. Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson hasn’t thrown an interception in his last six games. The Colts need this one badly, considering their loss to Tennessee last week.
Minnesota 26, Jacksonville 16: The Vikings have to be letter-perfect down the stretch to have a shot at an NFC playoff berth, but they nearly slipped against Carolina last week. They will be at home against the feckless Jaguars, a team that has a knack for playing teams tough but fading once the rubber meets the road. At least the Jags, an eliminated team that has lost a franchise-record ten straight, shows some initiative, switching to former NC State starter Mike Glennon at quarterback to jump-start things.
Chicago 19, Detroit 13: Offensively, the Lions are getting good production from Adrian Peterson and their running game. Overall, they can’t keep up with opponents, and it’s shown in a shutout loss to Carolina and getting subsequently worn down at home by Houston on Thanksgiving. The Bears are no great shakes, either (especially with Mitch Trubisky quarterbacking again), but I’ll take their defense and their Soldier Field comfort level; plus, at least the Bears still have their coach.
New Orleans 36, Atlanta 27: Since the Falcons hired Raheem Morris to replace the fired Dan Quinn. They have won four of their last six games, looking very impressive in a home blowout of Las Vegas last week. But the Saints, who definitely have more for which to play, should be able to stem that tide in the latest edition of one of the league’s newest and most underrated archrivalries. A few weeks ago, I said they needed Taysom Hill to do what Teddy Bridgewater did last year – win games while Drew Brees heals – and he’s done exactly that.
Green Bay 30, Philadelphia 17: When the Packers would play at their Lambeau Field home, that used to be as sure a bet as there was in the league. These days, they do have the occasional home hiccup. Yet, against a team like the Eagles, I don’t see Green Bay slipping up. It still has a chance to catch New Orleans for the top NFC playoff seed.
Seattle 34, New York Giants 20: If nothing else, the Giants’ win at Cincinnati last week, their third straight victory, proved they could win on the road. But that was the Bengals and, this week, it’s the Seahawks, who are comfortable at home whether their ultra-noisy fans are there or not. Both of these teams are involved in hot-and-heavy division races, the NFC East’s mediocrity notwithstanding. I’ll take the team that’s home and in the tougher division with a healthy quarterback, as the Giants’ Daniel Jones should miss significant time (hamstring). New York and Washington are tied for first in the East at 4-7.
Los Angeles Rams 27, Arizona 24: The Cardinals took a gut-punch loss at New England last week, blowing a ten-point lead and falling by three in the final seconds. The Rams have done a good job surprising people all year with their solid defense and improved play from quarterback Jared Goff–although they took their first home loss last week. Kyler Murray has been all the rage around the league this year but was held without a touchdown pass last week for the first time all season. He and his team look to be fading a bit, just enough to drop this close one at home.
New England 26, Los Angeles Chargers 20: The Chargers played tough and rallied late but dropped another close game against Buffalo last week (sound familiar?). Now, they go back home to face a New England team that is still in playoff contention but isn’t nearly as dominant as it has been for the past two decades. Still, the Patriots should be able to eke out a win.
Kansas City 33, Denver 15 (Sunday night): In most seasons, this would be a key AFC West Division clash, perfect for a national television audience. But while the Broncos will certainly hang tough against a team, it knows very well. It simply can’t play nearly as well as the Chiefs, who will be at home and hoping for Pittsburgh to stumble in the battle for the top AFC playoff seed. Kansas City has won six straight and clinched a seventh season of ten or more wins in the last eight years.
Pittsburgh 34, Washington 13 (Monday afternoon): I still don’t think the Steelers will go undefeated. But it’s getting harder and harder to find a team capable of being good enough to beat them or at least create enough fluky breaks to get an opening against them. If any team’s schedule says they’re at home against Washington, it should chalk it up as a win–even though a generous, mistake-prone Dallas team couldn’t on Thanksgiving. The Steelers won’t be charitable in a match-up that Baltimore fans should hate for obvious reasons on both sides.
Buffalo 27, San Francisco 24 (Monday night): For an endless number of consecutive years, ESPN’s Chris Berman would pick these two teams to meet in the Super Bowl. It wasn’t only because they were both really good at the time, it was also because they were his two favorite teams. These franchises’ are decidedly different these days with the ‘Niners struggling in a tough division and Buffalo rising to the top of its four-team loop. San Francisco has also found the going tough at ‘home’ (thanks to new protocols, that home is in Glendale, Arizona, the Cardinals’ home base) so I’ll take the ascending Bills over the fading ‘Niners, who had lost three straight before last week.
Baltimore 27, Dallas 19 (Tuesday night): As far as lifetime franchise resumes are concerned, Dallas’ list of accomplishments outshines Baltimore’s. However, teams from Charm City have sometimes proven to be an obstacle for the Cowboys. The first time Dallas played in a Super Bowl (5), it lost to … (yes) Baltimore. The last team in the NFL to beat the Ravens for the first time was … (yes) Dallas–finally winning in 2016 after losing the first four meetings. On top of that, the Cowboys have never won at M&T Bank Stadium in three previous tries. The Ravens have outscored them by 88-39 in those games, including a shutout in 2000. A goose egg won’t happen this time. Still, for all the Ravens’ inconsistencies and problems this year, their overall talent level and necessary depth in the wake of the COVID crisis are decidedly higher than those of the Cowboys.
