The unpredictable became predictable this year.
‘Say what?!” isn’t just a Big Ten anthem. For example, it’s literally impossible to manufacture a scenario where visiting Rice—a 25 point dog—goes into Huntington and shuts out #21 and previously undefeated Marshall. But that’s exactly what happened last Saturday. What’s more, the Owls did it by gaining only 210 total yards on the day. They scored by way of a 1-yard TD run, two field goals, and a pick-6.
Now that’s what we call ‘efficient’ … especially when you think that Rice had hardly played this year. Rice had twice as many games canceled due to COVID-19 (six) than it had played going into the Marshall game (three). That’s right, SIX!
As we meander back to the Big Ten, at least our two winners last week—Ohio State and Penn State—were predictable. At kickoff, the Buckeyes were -22.5 v. Michigan State, the Lions were -11.5 against Rutgers, and the favorites won and covered.
We lost on our longshot pick of the week, Illinois over Iowa. The Illini started strong, taking a 14-0 lead, but then the Hawkeyes did what the Hawkeyes do—they keep coming after you. Iowa scored 35 straight points as the UI defense sputtered, and its defense faltered. By game’s end, Iowa had gained over 420 total yards while the defense suppressed the Illini’s pass-run attack.
But while we took a chance by picking Illinois to win, the unpredictable season happened again. We thought Purdue (at home) would be a lock against Nebraska and that Wisconsin (also at home) would handle Indiana. No locks were either.
UNL put up 17 points against the Boilers in the first 15 minutes of the opening stanza. And while the Boilers closed the gap to 10 points early in the 4th, the Huskers kept Purdue at bay with a balanced offensive and a bend-but-don’t-break defense. Purdue has gone from 2-0 to 2-4 on the year.
Wisconsin looked listless against IU. The Badgers’ offense lacked punch (only 140 yards on the ground), while its defense let QB replacement, Jack Tuttle, have his way (13-22 with two TDs and 85 QBR). With consecutive losses, the Badgers have gone from the pre-season consensus West Division favorite to a middle-of-the-pack team behind champion Northwestern and fast-closing Iowa.
Ranking the Conference after Week 7
This week we divide the conference into two divisions—The Best and The Rest
The Best
1-Ohio State (Questions answered. Bucks are B1Gs top dogs.)
2-Iowa (In a topsy-turvy year, Iowa has been steady, and has run its win streak to five games.)
3-Indiana (Give credit where credit is due. Winning big after losing Penix, Jr. is no small feat. IU is for real.)
4-Northwestern (The ‘Cats have clinched the West crown, but still have two tough games on the schedule—Illini this weekend before facing OSU in the Big Ten Championship.)
5-Penn State (The Lions came off the mat to win consecutive games. Now, they’re favored to win a third. ‘Bad start/good finish’ is the storyline in State College this year.)
6-Wisconsin (‘What could have been’ defines these Badgers. While we don’t mean to blame Graham Murtz, there’s no question that his steep learning curve was on display against both NU and IU.)
The Rest
7-Illinois (We’re not going to let three-quarters of one game against Iowa detract from what the downtrodden Illini did over 2¼ games. Lovie turned around what appeared to be a clueless 22, making them into a surprisingly good (and dangerous) foe. Illinois is our pick for the best of the rest.
8-Nebraska (The Huskers are getting better. While only 2-4 this year, they’ve been close multiple times, beat Penn State, and roughed up Purdue. That’s progress.)
9-Maryland (The Terps are another team that fits in the top tier of ‘The Rest’ division. They didn’t get a chance to play Michigan last week, and they didn’t look as good as we had hoped against Indiana the week before. But, still, they have a dynamic QB, a good defense, and are better than any of the teams that follow.)
10-Purdue (We don’t know what’s up in West Lafayette. This team is stronger on paper than on the field, and after opening with a big win v. Iowa, the Boilers have gone 1-4. It’s soul-searching time in Northern Indiana.)
11-Rutgers (The promising Knights have lost three of their last four games, which puts them in familiar territory, that is, in last place in the Big Ten East. RU is better than that, but inconsistency has been costly.)
12-Michigan State (Ugly losses with spectacular wins are words to describe 2020 football in East Lansing. The difference is a result of many factors, but the Spartans won’t get on the winning track until the QB position is settled. Last Saturday against OSU, Rocky Lombardi hardly registered a QBR (7.6). In earlier (and equally ugly losses), he was even worse against IU (0.4) and only slightly better (15.6) v. Iowa. But this is the same player who had QBRs close to, or above, 84 in big wins against UM and NU. We’re not saying Rocky shouldn’t be the starter, but we are saying that you can’t maintain a starting status without being consistently good. Right now, Rocky isn’t.
13-Michigan (The Wolverines are done for 2020 with a 2-4 record. And ‘Done for’ is a good way of describing this team. Inconsistent on offense and terrible on defense, UM gave up more points than it scored this year (Bo is pounding the table…somewhere). What this team needs is what a Matt Campbell is giving Iowa State.
14-Minnesota (If we were writing a newspaper headline about UM’s football season, it would be “The Gophers Messed Up 2020.” The offense fizzled (Tanner Morgan didn’t improve) and the defense looked like it was playing flag ball. This was supposed to be the year that P.J. Fleck brought Minneapolis a Big Ten title but, instead, 2020 put Fleck on the hot seat.
Week 8 Games
Illinois at Northwestern (opened NU -13.5, Th., -14): To compete in this game, Illinois will need a better performance from QB Brandon Peters, who went 10-18 for only 116 yards against Iowa. We don’t expect much improvement against a NU defense that’s ranked 15th nationally in total defense. Northwestern
Minnesota at Nebraska (opened UNL -9, Th., -11): Things are finally looking up for UNL QB Adrian Martinez, who lost his position earlier this year, but has bounced back since. Last week against Purdue, Martinez had his best performance of the season, going 23 for 30 with 242 yards (QBR rating, 82.2). He added 45 yards on the ground. Martinez should keep it going against a Gopher defense that has trouble playing defense. Nebraska
Rutgers at Maryland (opened MARYLAND -8.5, Th., -7.5): Rutgers ran into a rebounding PSU team last week. This week, the Knights suit up this week against a COVID-riddled Maryland squad that has played only four games this year. Despite not playing much, we think the Terrapins will handle the Knights this Saturday. Thinking that the spread is RU-friendly, we pick Maryland to win and cover easily.
Wisconsin at Iowa (opened IOWA -1.5, Th., WISCONSIN -1.5): Wisconsin needs to rebound against a team that makes rebounding a chore. What’s more, Saturday’s outcome will determine which streak remains intact–Iowa’s win streak (will end at 5 or extend to 6) or Wisconsin’s losing street (will end at 2 or extend to 3). We think the answer will depend on which QB shows up, and Petras has been workmanlike. Mertz has been shaky. We think we just answered the matter … Iowa.
Michigan State at Penn State (opened PSU -14.5, Th., -15): Penn State played solid defense against Rutgers , limiting the Knights to just over 200 total yards. On offense, PSU defied the old saying that “If you have two QBs, then you don’t have any QB.” Last week Penn State got passing production from QB Sean Clifford (15-22, 133 yards) and rushing production from QB Will Levis (17 carries, 65 yards). Meanwhile, in East Lansing, Michigan State came out without oomph against OSU and played that way, losing 52-12 to the Day-less Buckeyes. While there’s always the possibility that ‘the good’ MSU will show up in State College, a competitive outcome depends on whether dual-threat Payton Thorne plays the entire game–something he has yet to do this year. While we don’t know if Thorne will play or whether the Lions will cover the spread, we’ll still pick Penn State to beat the up-and-down Spartans.
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Stats courtesy ESPN and wagering odds courtesy Vegas Insider.
