B1G is topsy-turvy! Every weekend the bottom line is SUSPENSE! What will happen this week?
Handicapping isn’t for the faint of heart. Last week’s dismal 1-4 performance puts us at 45% for the year. That isn’t good by any standard. But just like in golf–where the next hole beckons–we’re standing at the tee ready to give it another swing.
First, though, an autopsy is in order.
Our Thanksgiving Weekend analysis revealed that we went with the ‘wrong’ upset teams. We never thought Rutgers would win at Purdue or that Michigan State would top Northwestern. But they both did. On the other hand, we went out on a limb picking Maryland over Indiana (wrong) and Michigan over Penn State (wrong again). Only pick Iowa emerged against Nebraska–and that game could have easily gone the other way.
The typically predictable Big Ten isn’t at all predictable this year. One reason is mid-season turnarounds–from can’t win to win. Illinois is an example, and Iowa is, too. With Rutgers and Michigan State, you’re not sure what you’ll see on the field from one week to the next.
While Ohio State and Northwestern are still the good bets to make the B1G Championship games, each team has questions to answer. To qualify, OSU needs to play. On the other hand, NU has to figure out how a team that controlled both sides of the line against rugged Wisconsin could control neither side against Michigan State. Yes, the ‘Cats reeled off 20-straight points against the Spartans after MSU got out to a 17-0 lead, but NU couldn’t close. Championship teams do.
Ranking the Conference After Week 6
1-Ohio State (Questions linger from second-half struggles against IU. OSU needs to quell doubters.)
2-Iowa (Steady on offense and defense has Hawkeyes on a four-game winning streak.)
3-Indiana (There are red eyes in Bloomington after Penix, Jr. suffered a season-ending injury. Does IU have enough to continue flying high?)
4-Wisconsin (Really needs to play and show that the NU loss was a one-off.)
5-Northwestern (Stunning! Incredible! Are you kidding me? Three ways to describe NU’s loss to the Spartans. And, now, the ‘Cats have two weeks before they play.)
6-Rutgers (Knights won at Purdue last week, could have easily won at home against Michigan the week before and should have won at home v. Illinois three weeks ago. Yes, fans, this previously downtrodden team could be 4-2.)
7-Purdue (It’s clear this team is long on potential and short on performance. A good team still, the Boilers need to show it on the field.)
8-Penn State (Lions won! Now 1-5. 2-5 is next. It’s one step at a time.)
9-Maryland (We think this team is better than #9. Terps need to prove it.)
10-Illinois (A COVID-related off-week stalled consecutive road wins. The Illini are a team to keep an eye on.)
11-Michigan State (The Spartans are the Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde of the Big Ten–a team that can go from very good (Michigan, Northwestern) to very bad (Iowa, Indiana), and back again.)
12-Michigan (“It couldn’t happen in Ann Arbor, could it?” It did. UM can’t get out of its own way.)
13-Nebraska (The shared storyline in Big Ten 2020 is how the mighty have fallen—Michigan, Penn State, and Nebraska. Can NU get off the mat?)
14-Minnesota (The Gophers are playing out the string. Minnesota’s plight is one of the most surprising, if not the most disappointing, storylines in college football this year.)
Week 7 Games
Maryland at Michigan (opened Michigan -4, Wed., -4.5 ): Michigan has been plagued on both defense and offense this year–a defense that can’t get stops at key times and an offense that isn’t getting consistent QB play. While UM’s defensive woes continue, QB play seemed to be resolved when Cade McNamara replaced Joe Milton during the Rutgers game and rallied his team to a victory. But McNamara’s play against PSU last week was a different story. He completed fewer than 50% of his passes and ended up with a QBR of 30.7. Ouch! Meanwhile, Maryland showed the effects of not playing for 21 days in its road loss to UI. Still, we love Terps’ QB Taulia Tagovailoa–even though the Hoosiers picked off three of his passes. With yet another one of our ‘Pick and Pray’ selections, we say … Turtles win.
Ohio State at Michigan State (opened OSU -22, Wed., -23.5: The Spartans win over NU last week has to go down as the biggest upset in the Big Ten this year. MSU’s Rocky Lombardi, who seemed destined for the bench in light of his dismal play, came out swinging against the Wildcats. The same player who had a 15.8 QBR against the Hawkeyes and (get this) a 0.4 QBR v. the Hoosiers ended up with an 84 QBR against the ‘Cats–the top-ten ranked ‘Cats, we’ll add. But Lombardi didn’t do it alone. The Michigan State rushing attack, which was hardly an attack going in at < 100 yards a game, one of the lowest-ranked running teams in the country, nearly hit 200 yards against NU–the same defense that stymied Wisconsin. And the Spartans only turned over the ball once against NU (seven v. Rutgers), while the “Cats lost two fumbles and threw two interceptions. So give the Spartans credit for coming off the mat after the team had scored only seven points in its previous two games. But the bar is raised even higher this week. Ohio State is on the horizon in a game that the Bucks NEED to play to get into the Big Ten Championship game (minimum number of games required). We already know that HC Brad Day won’t be in East Lansing (COVID-related), but his Buckeyes will be there unless the conference steps in. While our hearts are with the Spartans, we don’t think they can perform magic on consecutive weekends against top-ten ranked teams. This is Ohio State, after all. (Did we say that?) We think Ohio State rolls on.
Nebraska at Purdue (opened PURDUE -2, Wed., -2): Both of these teams lost last week, but Nebraska looked better in a losing role. The Huskers gave Iowa all it could handle. NU was driving, down by six, and had a chance to win, when Adrian Martinez fumbled at the UI 39-yard line. On the other hand, Purdue blew a 10-point halftime lead at home to Rutgers, getting blitzed in the second half (outscored 24-7) in losing, 37-30. What’s more, RU did it without the services of their starting QB, Noah Vendral, who was out with an injury. What’s the bottom line? Both teams are looking for consistency, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But we think that offense will be the difference this week. Purdue has been more productive this year, while NU is still searching for a starting QB. Purdue
Penn State at Rutgers (opened PSU -11.5, Wed., -11.5): Hurray for the Lions! QB Sean Clifford put his team in the win column for the first time this year, beating Michigan on the road, 27-17. Clifford threw for 163 yards and ran for 73, and many of those yards came at pivotal times. When Michigan’s defense looked like it would get a big third-down stop, Clifford would scamper for a first down. Now the Lions face the Fighting Schiano’s, a team that has transitioned from the Big Ten’s longest losing streak to 2-4 this season. And Rutgers is doing it with big plays and multiple players. Last week, third-string QB Johnny Langan threw a 62-yard TD pass and, a few minutes later, Aron Cruickshank had a 100-yard kickoff return. Wow! But while we know RU is better–much better–than it has been, we also know that beating Penn State represents a tall order–even during this chaotic year. Besides, RU hasn’t won at home. In what we believe will be an interesting game, we’ll pick Penn State.
Indiana at Wisconsin (opened WISC -13.5, Wed., -14): Indiana’s win last Saturday against the Terps came with a devastating loss: dynamic QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season. Meanwhile, Wisconsin was in practice mode, it’s game canceled against Minnesota (COVID). But even though the Badgers didn’t take the field, they won big last weekend when the Spartans upset Northwestern. Yes, the ‘Cats own the tie-breaker in the Big Ten West, but the good news for UW fans is that both teams now have 1-loss on the year. So there’s much at stake for the home team this week. IU, on the other hand, has to regroup without its leader. IU may eventually do just that, but we doubt it will be this Saturday in Madison. Wisconsin
Iowa at Illinois (opened IOWA -13, Wed., -13.5): Iowa went into last Friday’s game -13 against the Cornhuskers, but the game didn’t turn out that way. Tied at the half, it took two 4th quarter field goals and a late fumble recovery to seal Iowa’s win. Now, UI travels east to play an Illinois team that ran and passed its way to a big win against those same Huskers two weeks ago. Yes, the Illini on the road did to the Huskers what Iowa couldn’t do to NU at home. And Illinois has had two weeks to prepare for the Hawkeyes (last week’s game v. OSU was a COVID causality). Illinois has emerged offensively, racking up nearly 1000 yards in its last two games–and those yards were divided almost equally between rushing and passing. We think Illinois will be able to move against the Hawkeyes. But what about the Hawkeyes’ offense? That’s the question. Iowa has won four in a row. Illinois has found new life and confidence. In a crazy year, when up is down and down is up, we’re going with the home dog. (Gulp!) Illinois.
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Stats courtesy ESPN and wagering odds courtesy Vegas Insider.
