The Big Ten will qualify for the college football playoff only if Ohio State beats Northwestern on Saturday.
Rules are made to be broken, some say. Others prefer using gentler words, “Be flexible!” Well, choose one. Either way, the Big Ten decided to revise its guideline that a team needed to participate in six games to qualify for the Big Ten Championship game. The Buckeyes didn’t meet the original standard, and so the conference pivoted.
OSU is in, the Hoosiers aren’t, and B1G (via the Buckeyes) has a chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff. That’s because the East champ Buckeyes are ranked #4 in the most recent CFP standings. Northwestern (the West Division champ) is #14.
But another big proposition this weekend–at least as some see it–is how its new concept, “Championship Weekend,” will work out. There, again, the conference shifted course–from declaring that companion games would be East vs. West to settling on a mix of games that will include games that were scheduled but postponed by COVID earlier in the season.
So here’s how the weekend games shape up. Nebraska (West) v. Rutgers (East) is true to the original form, as is Illinois (West) v. Penn State (East). Rescheduled games include Wisconsin v. Minnesota (all-West affair) and Michigan State v. Maryland (all-East game).
In addition to the five games on tap, two Championship Week games have been canceled because of COVID-19, including the rescheduled Purdue-Indiana game and the proposed East-West Michigan v. Iowa match-up. At press time, it looks like the season is over at Purdue and Michigan, while Iowa is looking for a replacement game. The scuttlebutt is that it might be Georgia because the Bulldogs game with Vanderbilt was also canceled. Indiana awaits a bowl bid.
Media ratings will go a long way toward determining whether Championship Week becomes standard fare or ends up to be a one-off, COVID-prompted exception.
Ranking the Conference after Week 8
The Best
1-Ohio State (Buckeyes have been #1 all year. Let’s see if they end up there.)
2-Iowa (It could have been bully v. bully last weekend, Iowa v. Wisconsin, but it ended up being just another game dominated by the Hawkeyes. UI’s win streak extended to six.)
3-Indiana (While most people thought Minnesota would make plenty of noise this year, few thought the same for the Hoosiers. As we wrote last week, IU’s body of work in 2020 proclaims, “This team is for real!”)
4-Northwestern (The ‘Cats bounced back against the Illini, Now they can make up for stumbling in East Lansing by knocking off the mighty Bucks.)
5-Penn State (Give the Lions credit. Plenty of it, too. It’s easy to throw in the towel after dropping five straight games. Instead, PSU has persevered, winning three games in a row–with one and, perhaps, two games left on the schedule. Kudos, Franklin et al.)
The Rest
6-Wisconsin (In late October, the Badgers were ranked #10 nationally going into the Northwestern game, which they were favored to win (-7.5). Well, they lost that game, and it has been downhill since. Few thought UW would be heading into Championship Week with a losing record. That said, this underperforming team has loads of talent, and that’s why we rank UW ‘The Best of the Rest.’)
7-Rutgers (Picking the Knights #7 says more about the Big Ten than it says about RU. Yes, this team beat Maryland over the weekend, but anybody who saw the game knows that Maryland did everything it could (at the end) to lose. Still, Rutgers did what it had to do to pick up the W. Credit Schiano for culture change in New Brunswick. That’s worth more than a little.)
8-Minnesota (The Minnesota-Nebraska game was much like the Rutgers-Maryland game. The Gophers won, but the Huskers (like the Terrapins) looked incapable of winning. And even if UM beats Wisconsin on Saturday to finish the season 3-3, don’t expect champagne to pop in Minneapolis.)
9-Maryland (The Terps beat themselves last Saturday by way of over 100 penalty yards in the second half through OT v. Rutgers–at home, no less. Also mystifying was Taulia Tagovailoa’s absence last week (specific reason unknown) and his possible absence this Saturday against MSU. Taulia is the straw that stirs the Terps’ drink. Without him, Maryland struggles.)
10-Illinois (Lovie is out, which puts a somewhat surprising cap on a season that showed promise–two wins, a sometimes impressive offense, and a rising defense. Now what?)
11-Purdue (By ranking the Boilers at #11, we’re probably giving this team more credit than is due. Starting 2-0 and then losing four straight is the reason. As we wrote last week, PU is stronger on paper than it is on the field. We’re not sure why, but we suspect (‘speculate’ is probably a better word) that the answer has something to do with team culture. No matter what, things aren’t adding up in West Lafayette.)
12-Michigan State (Payton Thorne looked like a world-beater last Saturday in Happy Valley … in the first half, at least. He was 11-13 with over 200 yards and three TDs. The second half was a very different story. The Lions played a defensive scheme that frustrated Thorne and MSU’s OC Jay Johnson. The Spartans mustered only a field goal in half two while the host Lions put 29 points on the board. Thorne will get another chance (to start) this weekend. The Spartans need to win this Saturday at Maryland to avoid finishing in the East cellar.)
13-Nebraska (As we’ve written on these pages over the course of the season, ‘push has come to shove’ in Lincoln. Like a dicey company trading on a stock exchange, UNL trades up a few days but eventually (and possibly inevitably) trends down. Yes, these Huskers need to beat Rutgers to avoid finishing in the West basement, but the larger question is whether this team can ever regain national footing.
14-Michigan (Can things get any worse for the Wolverines? While the answer is debatable, one thing isn’t: the mighty have fallen in Ann Arbor. And with one year left on Jim Harbaugh’s contract, insiders predict that the UM will stick with Jim for 2021 before deciding on a possible coaching change. We think that makes sense, but it doesn’t auger well for Wolverine’s prospects in the short-term … a team that, well, ‘has issues.’
Championship Week Games
Nebraska at Rutgers (opened NU -6, Wed., -6.5): Rutgers got the ‘W’ last week with the help of a generous opponent, Maryland–a team that had the game won–but lost it–because it was so offensive (penalties, that is). The story was different in Nebraska. The Huskers lost to a Minnesota team that looked like it was playing with players from another team. Even though UM hasn’t had a solid year, the Gophers put together a nearly perfect effort with zero turnovers and just three penalties. That was sufficient to vanquish the Nebraskans, 24-17. But what about this week? Nebraska has better players who need to execute the game plan. Sounds simple. It’s not. Can they? We think so. Nebraska
Minnesota at Wisconsin (opened UW -14, Wed, -12): Minnesota used a classic football blueprint to beat Nebraska. It’s the one that coaches have preached about forever, that is, having a balanced offense. The Gophers passed for 181 yards, rushed for 206, and beat Nebraska in the all-important TOP (time-of-possession) battle. On the other hand, Wisconsin ran into what has become the insurmountable Hawkeyes. Iowa took control from the opening kick and cruised to a 28-7 win. While some think that the Badgers have thrown in the towel, we think they’ll win Saturday and return to .500 on the year. Besides, we don’t believe that the ‘Fers have it in them to put together solid back-to-back outings. Wisconsin
Illinois at Penn State (opened PSU -15, Wed., -15): Penn State flipped the script last Saturday against Michigan State. The Lions trailed by 11 at halftime and won the game by 15. With the win, PSU went to 3-5 and–more importantly–continued its late-season turnaround. These Lions have figured out a way to turn lemons into lemonade. How sweet? The answer is yet to come. The first step is beating UI on Saturday and, then, winning a bowl game. The goal? Finish 5-5 after starting 0-5. Now, that’s mighty sweet! The road to that outcome starts at quarterback. But while the Sean Clifford (passing)-Will Levis (running) combo is a key to the Lions’ turnaround, so, too, is PSU’s defense. The Lions pulled off a second-half trifecta against MSU–stopping the run, pressuring the QB, and holding MSU to a single score (a field goal). Nobody wants PSU on its schedule these days! Besides, the Illini are playing this game only a few days after the school fired head coach Lovie Smith. Penn State
Michigan State at Maryland (opened UM -5, Wed., -2.5): If you liken football to figuring out The New York Times Sunday puzzle, then Maryland is your team. It will take you a long time to get anywhere–either figuring out the Times or understanding what’s going on with the Terps. But if you like to link football to literature, then Michigan State is your team: the Spartans are a ‘Tale of Two Cities’–outstanding one game and not good the next. Last Saturday, both teams (and their proclivities) were on display. Maryland found ways, repeatedly, to give Rutgers the win. The Spartans played like gangbusters in the first half against PSU and, then, were gang-busted in the second. So this is a pick-’em game–either go with the mystery team or the squad with two faces. Where did we settle? We like MSU’s fight and the effort it’s showing under first-year coach Mel Tucker. Payton Thorne will start again, and he has potential. Besides, at press time, we don’t know whether the Terrapins’ dynamic Taulia Tagovailoa will play. Michigan State
GAME OF THE WEEK: Northwestern v. Ohio State (opened OSU -20.5, Wed., -20.5): Northwestern has made a tremendous comeback this year, nabbing a division championship after finishing 3-9 in 2019. Credit Pat Fitzgerald and company for achieving a remarkable feat at a small, private university with high standards. Besides, NU plays in a league populated by very large public schools. Compare what the ‘Cats are doing in the Big Ten to similarly situated private Power 5 schools, namely, to 0-9 Vanderbilt in the SEC and 1-9 Duke in the ACC. That said, this isn’t ‘another league game.” It’s for all the marbles against the league’s best team. And the ‘Cats don’t match-up well. OSU scores, on average, almost twice as many points per game as does NU. And even though Northwestern’s defense is taut against most teams, we don’t think the ‘Cats will have what it takes to corral Ohio State. We might give an inch or two on that assessment if what NU had done against Wisconsin held up when the Badgers played other teams. It didn’t. What Indiana and, then, Iowa did in December to UW is how Northwestern handled the Badgers in October. Believe us when we say, “Our hearts are with the ‘Cats,” but “Our bucks are on the Bucks.” Ohio State
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Stats courtesy ESPN and wagering odds courtesy Vegas Insider.
