When people refer to the ‘holiday season,’ they usually mean New Year’s and Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa. But not for me. My ‘holiday season’ is Thanksgiving and my birthday, which follows shortly thereafter. So Happy Holidays to one and all!
NOTE: All games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted)
Thursday Games
Detroit 29, Houston 17: In the early 1930s of the NFL, the league was growing its brand. Officials asked all the teams about hosting a Thanksgiving game, and Detroit was the only one who volunteered. Since then, the Lions have had up-and-down fortunes on the holiday, posting a 37-41-2 record. Still, while I haven’t picked them to win much lately–and they looked anemic in getting shut out by Carolina last week–they should take this one over a beaten-down Texans squad.
Dallas 30, Washington 13: These teams from the incredibly-subpar NFC East Division. But Dallas, which broke a four-game losing streak last week with a newly-healthy Andy Dalton, is at home. Usually good on the holiday (31-20-1), it’s also 8-1 against Washington on Thanksgiving. Besides, the Cowboys don’t get swept by Washington that often (it has only happened five times, most recently in 2012) in the 60 years they’ve played each other twice. Each team has a productive running back (Antonio Gibson, Ezekiel Elliott), so this game should fly by fast.
Baltimore 26, Pittsburgh 23: This incredible AFC North Division rivalry has seen many splits (to be exact, 15 over the 24 seasons the Ravens have existed). On six occasions, the teams split by winning at each other’s stadium (1999, 2000, 2001, 2010, 2012, 2018). I think that pattern will repeat itself this time. Pittsburgh, going for its sixth-lifetime sweep of the Ravens, won a four-point decision at Baltimore just four weeks ago. Still, though, the Ravens (despite costly turnovers, a lack of offensive identity, and overall inconsistency) did a lot of good things in that game, and they were in a good position to win late in the fourth quarter. On top of that, the Ravens are 2-0 on Thanksgiving (with one of those wins coming against the Steelers) and have won in each of the last two games in Pittsburgh. But Baltimore has to get a lead, hold on to it, and show more stamina down the stretch. Put more bluntly: the Ravens need to finish.
Sunday Games
New York Giants 24, Cincinnati 23: Quarterback Daniel Jones has started to cut down on the turnovers a bit, and there seems to be hope for a Big Blue revival. On the other side, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was heading for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors before being injured in Washington. With Burrow gone and Joe Mixon still out and on temporary IR, NYG has the edge in what I think will be a tight game in the Queen City.
Jacksonville 20, Cleveland 17: Jake Luton is a little-known rookie quarterback taken in the sixth round of this year’s draft. He has played well for the host Jaguars except for his four interceptions against league kingpin Pittsburgh. And with Cleveland having had to do without ace pass-rusher Myles Garrett (COVID) in recent weeks, Luton may not have to face him. It smells like an upset to me.
Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 20: These two AFC South Division rivals are meeting for the second time in a three-week span–a scheduling quirk that is more common in the Canadian Football League. And the game couldn’t be happening at a worse time for the banged-up Titans. That said, the Colts’ defense will be tested by Derrick Henry, who has six 100-yard games this year and has compiled over 1000 yards for a third straight season.
Buffalo 33, Los Angeles Chargers 23: The Bills return home after an off-week to play the hard-luck Chargers. While anything can happen in the fickle, parity-ridden NFL, the difference here (I think) is at quarterback–Justin Herbert v. Josh Allen. The Bills’ signal-called is a bit more advanced and has more of a team around him. On defense, Buffalo must figure out ways to cover Keenan Allen, who has six career games of 13 or more receptions (an NFL record) and a franchise-record 16 last week.
Miami 31, New York Jets 9: For those who love history, here’s one for you. In an experiment back in the early 1980s, these two teams played a Saturday-afternoon game on NBC with no television announcers. It might be a good idea for CBS to replicate that option. Why? NYJ, a team that can’t get it right and is now 0-10 for the first time. Meanwhile, the visiting Dolphins were on a heck of a roll (until they lost at Denver), and getting the Jets this Sunday is just the right tonic for regaining their health.
Arizona 24, New England 23: The Patriots aren’t what they used to be (this is the first time in 11 years that the Pats will finish with six or more losses), but…. This team is in playoff-position once again. That’s one reason why I think they’ll give Arizona a tough battle. In the end, though, I see the Cardinals–a better team from a better division–pulling out a close win in what should be one of the better games of the week.
Las Vegas 26, Atlanta 17: With both teams using black as one of their primary colors, maybe this game would be best seen on black-and-white television. But to be fair, the Raiders have risen to contender status and should re-b0und from last week’s home loss to KC.
Minnesota 30, Carolina 20: Despite losing to Dallas last week, Minnesota has looked quite good lately. If Green Bay slips even a little bit, the Vikings could be knocking at the door.
New Orleans 26, Denver 13: New Orleans is certainly hoping Taysom Hill can do for them what Teddy Bridgewater did last year, that is, reel off a few wins in relief of Drew Brees. If he can’t, I still think that Jameis Winston could win this game against the fast-fading Broncos. New Orleans has won eight in a row, and its defense is coming off an eight-sack, two-interception game against Atlanta.
Los Angeles Rams 27, San Francisco 16: San Francisco comes off its bye and takes a short trip down the coast to play the Rams. But I don’t think the rest will help the ‘Niners much, if at all. Any team that falls behind in a tough division like the NFC West is at a decided disadvantage, and it’s time for San Francisco to start thinking about next year.
Kansas City 38, Tampa Bay 34: The Chiefs gutted out a big win in Las Vegas last week, and now they meet Tampa Bay in what should be a classic showdown. But while eyes will be on Mahomes vs. Brady, there’s more to this game. ‘Defense’ is the key. KC’s defense has improved just enough to win last year’s Super Bowl, while the Bucs’ unit is one reason many picked that team to unseat New Orleans in the NFC South. In another national-TV roadie for the Chiefs, I pick the Chiefs to pull out another tough one.
Green Bay 40, Chicago 22 (Sunday night): Chicago is coming off a bye to travel to Lambeau Field to play in what is the NFL’s best, most intense, and longest-enduing archrivalry. But having time to rest is perhaps the only advantage for these Bears.
Monday Game
Seattle 27, Philadelphia 15: The Seahawks’ defense seems to be improving, making this a complete team as a result. Not only that, they got the usual mini-bye after a Thursday night game, plus an extra day of rest before this cross-country Monday-nighter in Philadelphia. The Seahawks didn’t let the west-to-east travel bug hamper them last time they went to Philly, and they won’t this time, either.
