Big Ten Football, Week 6: Buckeyes, Wildcats Destined for Championship Clash?

With separation achieved, will anything keep these two from facing off for the B1G championship?

As noted in last week’s column, a huge benefit awaited Ohio State and Northwestern after last Saturday’s games–win or lose–especially if they won. Now, even if OSU and NU stumble along the way, each team still owns the tie-breaker against just-vanquished rivals, Indiana and Wisconsin, respectively. Then, relatively soft schedules beckon. OSU will face Illinois, MSU, and Michigan to close out the regular season, while NU goes against MSU, Minnesota, and Illinois. Note that both teams go through non-contenders Illinois and Michigan State.

That, Big Ten fans, is why we depicted last Saturday’s division clashes as B1G ‘Judgement Day.’

And while we correctly predicted that the Buckeyes and Wildcats would prevail in their big contests, we fared poorly in the undercard games. Only Michigan (our pick to beat home-standing Rutgers) emerged with a win. And it wasn’t easy, either. The Wolverines were down 17-0 by the 4-minute mark of the second quarter, scrambled back to take the lead with 5 minutes left, but then they were caught in regulation time when Noah Vedral engineered a spectacular 75-yard, 16-play drive, which culminated in a game-tying TD-plus-two sequence with 27 seconds left to play. Both teams looked inept in the OT periods until UM’s defense stepped up and intercepted Vedral’s end-zone pass to seal the Michigan win. But perhaps the bigger storyline for the visitors is that replacement QB sophomore Cade McNamara played well, going 27-36 for 360 yards and a whopping four TDs.

Michigan’s win was good news for us. The bad news is that we whiffed on Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa.

Of the three, the Illini were the biggest surprise. It’s not just that they won, but how they did it. Illinois had its way with Nebraska. QB Brandon Peters was terrific, going 18-25 for 205 yards and one rushing TD. But Peters didn’t do it alone. He was backed up by two 100+-yard rushers–Mike Epstein (113) and Chase Brown (110), who (as a tandem) averaged nearly 6 yards-a-carry and scored three TDs. Bottom line: Nebraska was outplayed and outclassed by a lower-tier Big Ten team. The head-scratching continues in Lincoln.

While Illinois was terrific, Minnesota was lucky to exit Friday with a home win against Purdue. With 6:10 left in the game, the Gophers mimicked their nickname (gopher it) on 4th down deep in their own territory. They failed, and Purdue took over at the UM 31-yard line. Purdue drove to the 16, where J.D. Dellinger couldn’t connect on a 33-yard FG attempt, his second miss of the night. Later (with 58 seconds left), the Boilers got hosed when officials charged TE Payne Durham with phantom offensive pass interference on an end-zone catch that would have been given Purdue the win. Minnesota intercepted Jack Plummer on the very next play.

Finally, in State College, Iowa dominated for the third consecutive week. Penn State’s early lead evaporated quickly and, by night’s end, the Hawkeyes had nearly doubled the score on the Lions. During its win streak, Iowa has outscored opponents, 125-35, while Penn State (now 0-5) continues in what has become an inexplicably lost season. Last year, PSU was an 11-2, Cotton Bowl-winning team and had 20 starters returning for 2020.

Ranking the Conference, After Week 5

1-Ohio State (still #1 after a defense that was exposed against IU)

2-Northwestern (replaces UW as #2, solid defense makes it so)

3-Indiana (impressive showing against OSU)

4-Iowa (3-2 now after opening 0-2)

5-Wisconsin (future boils down to how well Mertz plays)

6-Purdue (played well against NU, then the Gophers, but lost both games)

7-Illinois (consecutive wins–on the road, no less–make the Illini the ‘Lazerus of the Big Ten’)

8-Michigan (moved up a bit in the rankings–needed a win and got it…barely)

9-Maryland (hasn’t played two weekends straight–an unfortunate outcome for a team with an exciting QB)

10-Minnesota (yes, the Gophers won, but it was a Paper Mache win)

11-Rutgers (could have folded after last week’s poor showing against the Illini, but didn’t…and very easily could have beaten the Wolverines)

12-Nebraska (the Illini outplayed the Huskers in every aspect of the game)

13-Penn State (Lions can’t seem to muster enough on either side of the ball)

14-Michigan State (the division leaders play MSU over the next two weeks as Tucker searches for 22 starters)

Week 6 Games

FRIDAY NIGHT: Nebraska at Iowa (opened IOWA -12, Wed., -13.5): Nebraska took the field last week knowing a battle was in store. It would be the famed Blackshirts versus a healthy Brandon Peters. Peters won going away. Meanwhile, Iowa beat Penn State using the Hawkeye’s familiar, old-school MO–run the ball/stop the run. It worked. Iowa rushed for 175 rushing yards while limiting the Lions to 63 yards on the ground. In today’s game, where the spread offense prevails, it isn’t easy to prepare for a power running game. That makes the Hawks a tough opponent for most teams, and Nebraska is no exception. Iowa

Ohio State at Illinois: (opened OSU -30, Wed., -28.5: Last week, Brandon Peters showed why he was rated a 4-star recruit coming out of high school. The Michigan transfer ran and passed his team to a big win in Lincoln, utilizing a talented group of Illini receivers along the way. Ohio State, on the other hand, has three things to prove against UI: 1) that it can recover from its moribund second-half performance, 2) that it won’t be victimized in successive weeks by an agile and accurate passer; and 3) that Justin Fields won’t fall into the trap of throwing three interceptions again. That’s a mouthful for a team that’s contending for a College Playoff spot. But it also says just how good the Hoosiers really are. Can the Illini replicate what IU did last Saturday? The Illini are better, but they aren’t good enough to win this contest. Ohio State

Northwestern at Michigan State (opened NU -9, Wed., -13.5): Oh, those ‘Cats! Offense, defense, and special teams, all clicking. We especially like NU’s ‘D’ and QB Peyton Ramsey’s workmanlike style. Meanwhile, Michigan State didn’t play last week, which is something the Spartans needed to do–if for no other reason than to figure out who’s the starting QB. If only that were MSU’s only challenge. It isn’t. And with the ‘Cats pointing to the B1G championship game, don’t expect the boys from Evanston to take a week off. Northwestern

Penn State at Michigan (opened UM -4, Wed., -2): Yes, Penn State is 0-5, but the good news is that there’s another game to play and, with it, the possibility of getting a win. But will that happen? Before the second half of last week’s UM-Rutgers game, we might have said yes. But what happened later in the game changed our minds. That’s because the Wolverines’ offense had a dramatic turnaround once QB Cade McNamara came in the game. The question now is whether he can keep it going. He has to keep it going because … (drum roll). McNamara doesn’t play defense … and UM doesn’t seem to play much of that, either. Besides, he’ll need to battle what all second-stringers face when they are elevated to the first team–the psychology of being “the starter.” With a gulp, we pick Michigan.

Minnesota at Wisconsin (opened WISC -21, Wed., -21): As pundits often say, teams go the way their quarterbacks go. Well, if that’s true, then these two teams are question marks. The Gophers’ Tanner Morgan hasn’t shown this year what he did in 2019, and Wisconsin’s Freshman QB Graham Mertz experienced growing pains in last week’s loss in Evanston. Mertz was forced to throw when the Badgers were unable to gain much on the ground against a NU defense rated among the nation’s best against the run. Adding to Mertz’s problems is that he won’t have his top two receivers on the field this Saturday. What’s it all mean? Wisconsin will rely less on Mertz and more on the run. And that doesn’t seem such a tall order against that leaky Gophers’ D. Wisconsin

Rutgers at Purdue (opened PURDUE -13, Wed., -12): Despite not getting a win last week, Purdue left Minneapolis knowing it has a good team–on offense, especially, with the play of QB Jack Plummer and dynamic playmaker Rondale Moore. Rutgers, which just fell short against Michigan, doesn’t match up well against the Boilers. Purdue

GAME OF THE WEEK: Maryland at Indiana (opened IU -15, Wed., -10): What an intriguing game! Maryland is coming off a two-week bye courtesy of COVID-19, and Indiana gave the mighty Buckeyes a great game last week in Columbus. We see this game as a ‘Shaking Off the Rust vs. Avoiding a Letdown’ contest. While we love the Hoosiers, we also see a Terps’ team that’s on the rise, led by multi-talented Taulia Tagovailoa. Heck, we’d pay just to see Tagovailoa v. Penix. Going out on a (long) limb, we pick Maryland to spring a huge surprise.

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Stats courtesy ESPN and wagering odds courtesy Vegas Insider.

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