Sunday’s game offers a fascinating dual of tough defenses and differing offensive styles. Baltimore’s 17-7 post-bye record and current four-game win streak in such games have me leaning towards the home team.
WHAT: Week Eight, Game Seven vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, November 1
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (70,745)
RECORDS: Steelers, 6-0; Ravens, 5-1
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Steelers lead, 25-23, but the Ravens have won three of the last four overall meetings; in Baltimore, the Ravens lead, 13-11 the Steelers have won two of their last three games in Baltimore.
LOCAL TV/RADIO: WJZ-TV, Channel 13, WIYY-FM, 97.9
REFEREE: Brad Allen
About the Steelers
—This game is one of many games that had to be rescheduled in the wake of COVID-19 outbreaks around the league, primarily among the Tennessee Titans. The Ravens were supposed to have their bye this week but observed it last week while the Steelers–who had to take an early bye, as the Ravens did in 2008 thanks to Hurricane Ike–made up their game against Tennessee. As a result, the Ravens had two weeks to prepare for Pittsburgh.
–The Steelers have expressed dissatisfaction with having to take their bye in Week Four and play Baltimore with the Ravens coming out of their bye week. The Ravens are 17-7 (.708) in post-bye games, slightly behind Denver (23-9, .718) and Philadelphia (22-9, .709) for the league’s best win-rate in that category. The Ravens have also won their last four consecutive post-bye games, three of them at home, including a 21-14 win over Pittsburgh in 2016. The adjusted schedule also has Pittsburgh playing consecutive road games at Tennessee, Baltimore, and Dallas.
—Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are the opponents the Ravens have played more than any other in Baltimore’s 25-season history. This Sunday’s game will mark the 49th regular-season game and 53rd overall lifetime meeting between the teams (including postseason). The Ravens have played Cincinnati 49 times and Cleveland on 43 occasions.
—Since the AFC North was formed after the 2002 realignment, the Steelers have the most division titles with eight–the most recent in 2017. But with Baltimore having won the division in each of the last two years, its total is now six. Cincinnati has four AFC North titles, the last coming in 2015, and Cleveland hasn’t won a division title since taking the old AFC Central in 1989.
—When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they met the Steelers 11 times (including postseason). Pittsburgh won eight, including a 4-2 record in Baltimore and a 4-1 mark in Pittsburgh.
—Historically, the Steelers franchise has had a contrasting dual identity. From 1933-1971, Pittsburgh had only eight winning seasons out of its first 39 with only one playoff appearance. But since then, it has added 30 playoff appearances (the total of 31 is the league’s third-most, one of only five teams with 30 or more), with eight wild-card berths, and a staggering 23 division crowns, which is tied with the New York Giants and Chicago for the league’s third-most behind Green Bay (27) and Dallas (24).
—Pittsburgh’s eight Super Bowl appearances are tied for the second-most all-time with Dallas and Denver, and three behind record-holder New England. The Steelers’ six Super Bowl championships are tied with New England for the most crowns and one better than the five won by Dallas and San Francisco. Pittsburgh has made 16 appearances in the conference title game, tied with New England and Dallas for third-most all-time behind the New York Giants (19) and Green Bay (17).
—The return match in this rivalry is scheduled for Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving evening (November 26), the second time these teams will have met on the holiday. They tangled in Baltimore in 2013, with the Ravens winning, 22-20. This year, the Ravens play all three intra-division return games on the road with games at Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati taking place within the season’s final six weeks. As for Pittsburgh, its return matches with the Browns and Bengals will take place on the road.
—A total of 17 of the teams’ 48 regular-season meetings have been shown in Prime Time. The Ravens have registered four two-game season sweeps of Pittsburgh (’06, ’11, ’15, ‘19), while the Steelers have five sweeps (’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ‘17). There have been 15 splits, including in 2018, when each team won on the other’s home field. Pittsburgh has won three of four postseason meetings, including the 2008 AFC Championship Game. Had the Ravens won the 2008 game, they would have played in Super Bowl 43 in Tampa, site of Baltimore’s Super Bowl 35 win (this year’s title game, Super Bowl 55, will also be in Tampa).
—The history of this rivalry has been enriched by the number of close games that have resulted. The Ravens and Steelers have played to one-score margins in 18 of their last 24 regular-season meetings, dating back to December 2007. Fourteen of the last 24 regular-season meetings between these two teams have been decided by three or fewer points–the most by any pair of teams, outdistancing Dallas-Washington and San Francisco-Rams (eight each). Since 2008, Ravens-Steelers’ games have had an average margin of 7.3 points, closer than any other team pair. In the last 30 meetings before this season, the Ravens hold a 16-14 edge, with Baltimore holding a slim 36-point advantage (642-606).
–Despite many successful seasons in the past, this year’s Steelers got off to a 6-0 start for the first time since 1978, a season that saw them win Super Bowl 13 over Dallas. They are the last remaining undefeated team in the league, but, thanks to the pandemic, four of the first five games have come at home with two on each side of an adjusted bye week. The aforementioned three straight tough road games follow that, part of a stretch that will see Pittsburgh play four of five games away from Heinz Field. The season also ends on the road with another three-in-four stretch.
-The Steelers are undefeated, but five of those victories have been by ten or fewer points. In this stretch, the only lopsided game was a 38-7 home blasting of Cleveland in the season’s fifth game. The team has run the ball 184 times and passed it 223 (including a mere eight sacks allowed), a fairly-good run-pass ratio of minus-39.
–Defensively, the Steelers’ 26 sacks lead the league by one over Tampa Bay. They are currently on a streak of 63 straight games with a sack, six short of the league record set by Tampa Bay from 1999-2003, a team on which head coach Mike Tomlin played. Pittsburgh also has 64 quarterback hits, tied with Baltimore for the league-high. But Pittsburgh has allowed 11 passing touchdowns and 14 first downs via penalties, one of the league’s highest totals. Pittsburgh has outscored its foes in the first quarter, 37-17, and in the first halves of its games by 115-62.
–The Steelers are in the middle of the league pack with 37 accepted penalties committed–the same number as Baltimore and the New York Giants. In fact, Pittsburgh’s penalties have gone for 324 yards, just five more than the Ravens’ total. The Steelers have been flagged for offensive holding seven times and for defensive pass interference on six occasions. They are one of seven teams to have not drawn a defensive offsides flag all year (the Ravens have five). Individually, tight end Eric Ebron and cornerback Joe Haden have been flagged four times each; Ebron has two false starts, and Haden has three pass-interference calls.
–The Steelers are known for having a playmaking defense. But the team’s turnover ratio is a rather modest plus-2 despite eight straight games with a takeaway–the league’s third-longest active streak (Baltimore leads with 19). The team has recovered just one opponents’ fumble out of the four those teams have put on the ground, but the Steelers’ eight interceptions (from seven different players) are tied with Seattle for the league’s third-most. The offense has lost three fumbles and thrown four interceptions. Pittsburgh has been charged with six dropped passes (STATS, Inc.), three behind league leader Dallas.
–Through six games, the Steelers are ranked 21st in total offense (11th rushing, 23rd passing, sixth scoring at 30.5 points per game). Pittsburgh is one of just seven teams averaging 30 or more points per game. Also, the Steelers lead the NFL in average possession time (33:55), and their 85.7 percent fourth-down conversion rate is tied for third-best. Defensively, Pittsburgh is ranked first overall, allowing 286 yards per game (second vs. rush by allowing 68.8 yards per game, sixth vs. pass, sixth scoring by allowing 19.7 points per game). Pittsburgh allows fourth-down conversions at a 12.5 percent pace, the league’s second-best, and is allowing just over 17 first downs per game, also second-best.
—William & Mary graduate and Hampton, Virginia native Mike Tomlin is in his 14th season at the Steelers’ helm. Still relatively young at 48, he is the 16th head coach in Steelers’ franchise history–but only the third since 1969 (Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher). Tomlin has a regular-season record of 139-74-1 (.652), the second-best winning percentage among active coaches (Bill Belichick). But he has a mediocre playoff mark of 8-7. Tomlin has never posted a losing season in his time coaching the Steelers. The worst he has done is 8-8, which has happened three times (2012, 2013, 2019). Against Baltimore, Tomlin is 12-14 in regular-season play and 2-1 in postseason games.
–Tomlin has won six division titles, reached the playoffs four times in his first five seasons (eight in 13 years overall). He became the youngest head coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl (36) when his team beat Arizona in Super Bowl 43 in Tampa. Tomlin’s teams have made three AFC Championship Game appearances and played in two Super Bowls, losing to Green Bay in Super Bowl 45 at Dallas. After several collegiate coaching stops, Tomlin coached defensive backs in the NFL at Cincinnati and Tampa Bay before becoming Minnesota’s defensive coordinator, then moving on to Pittsburgh after Cowher retired after the 2006 season.
–Starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, a six-time Pro Bowl pick and two-time Super Bowl champion, is now in his 17th season. He made his NFL debut off the bench in Baltimore in 2004, when he replaced Tommy Maddox in the only game the 15-1 Steelers lost that year. He is 13-10 lifetime against the Ravens, but he did not face Baltimore last year due to injury (elbow). Roethlisberger has completed just over 60% of his passes lifetime against the Ravens with 37 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, and a passer rating of just over 85. The Ravens have sacked him 58 times. Roethlisberger has hit on 68.2% of his passes this season with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions, playing to a passer rating of 99.6. He has been sacked only eight times. Roethlisberger is backed up by Mason Rudolph, a 6-foot-5, 235-pound South Carolina native taken in the third round of the 2018 draft (76th overall from Oklahoma State).
–University of Pittsburgh product James Conner has seemingly overcome a few early-career fumbling problems to take over the main ball-carrying role on a team deep in rushing threats. Conner has had the lion’s share of the carries, averaging 4.7 yards on his 95 carries with four touchdowns–half the team’s rushing total. Conner is backed up by second-year back Benny Snell, a 2019 fourth-round pick (122nd overall) from Kentucky, who has two scores. Jaylen Samuels, a 2018 fifth-round pick (165th overall) from North Carolina State, already has an impressive resume, having played in 14 games (three starts) in 2018 and was the Pepsi Rookie of the Week in Week 15. This year, the Steelers drafted former Maryland back Anthony McFarland in the fourth round (124th overall). He has just 13 carries so far.
–The Steelers’ uncanny ability to draft top-flight wide receivers has continued in recent years with 2019 third-rounder (66th overall) Diontae Johnson, who also chips in on punt returns. Johnson has 24 catches, second on the team to Juju Smith-Schuster’s 32. Both players have scored three times. Smith-Schuster set season highs last week against Tennessee with nine grabs for 85 yards. Another gem came in the form of 2020 second-round pick Chase Claypool (49th overall), who has scored four times (tops among rookies). He is averaging over 18 yards per catch and has an 84-yard touchdown to his credit. James Washington, the team’s 2018 second-round pick (60th overall), has 17 receptions for a 10.9-yard average and two scores. In all, four of the Steelers’ top five pass-catchers are wideouts–the exception being veteran tight end and former Colt’s and Lion’s starter, Eric Ebron. Ebron has 22 catches, third on the team, for a 9.8-yard average and one touchdown. Conner has 15 receptions out of the backfield.
–The Steelers’ offensive line has allowed only eight quarterback sacks through the season’s first six games. That’s tied for the league’s second-fewest behind Indianapolis (six). Left guard Matt Feiler was the only new face last year on a cohesive line, and he can also play right tackle, where he started ten games in 2018. Right guard David DeCastro, the team’s 2012 first-round pick, has made the last four Pro Bowls and is a two-time All-Pro. DeCastro plays next to right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, a 2018 third-round pick (92nd overall) from Western Michigan. Center Maurkice Pouncey hasn’t missed a game since 2015, and left tackle Alejandro Villanueva is a United States Army veteran who is tough and dependable.
–The Steelers’ defensive line trio is responsible for 6.5 of the team’s league-leading 26 quarterback sacks (ten different players with a sack, five with at least three). Leading the way is defensive end Stephon Tuitt (four sacks, nine tackles, forced fumble), playing on a lucrative contract extension. Nose tackle Tyson Alualu was originally a 2010 first-round pick by Jacksonville (tenth overall), and he has nine solo tackles. Defensive end Cameron Heyward, who is playing on an extended deal, is one of the best pass-rushing down linemen in the league. He had 12 sacks in 2017 and, in his last six games against the Ravens, has three sacks, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. He has 12 tackles and an interception this year.
–The outside linebacker tandem of TJ Watt (team-high 5.5 sacks, brother of Houston defensive end JJ Watt) and former 2015 first-round pick Bud Dupree (five sacks) is one of the most feared pass-rush duos in the league. Watt, a 2017 first-rounder (30th overall) who usually lines up on the weak side, has 17 tackles and an interception, while strong-sider Bud Dupree (2015, first round, 22nd overall) can boast a total of nine tackles and a forced fumble. Watt is looking for a third straight game against the Ravens with a sack.
–One of the more unheralded members of the second level is 2013 sixth-round pick (206th overall) Vince Williams, who has 25 tackles and three sacks. He has had at least seven tackle in his last two games against the Ravens. With Devin Bush’s season-ending knee injury, Williams’s new inside partner is second-year reserve Robert Spillane, entrusted with the ‘green dot’ microphone in his first start last week against Tennessee.
–In recent years, Pittsburgh has tried desperately to revamp a leaky secondary. It hit the free-agent market to bring in former Kansas City cornerback Steven Nelson, who starts opposite Joe Haden. In his 11th year in the league, Haden has an interception, six pass breakups, and 20 tackles. Nelson’s acquisition bumped 2016 first-rounder Artie Burns to a backup role, and he was eventually released. Nelson has a pair of pickoffs, two pass breakups, and 17 tackles.
–In the safety spots, the team’s 2018 first-round pick, Virginia Tech’s Terrell Edmunds (21 tackles, five pass breakups), is the starter at strong safety. Pittsburgh made an in-season trade at free safety last year to bring in disgruntled Miami Dolphins draftee Minkah Fitzpatrick, who has 17 tackles and a pickoff this year–one that he ran back for a 33-yard touchdown. One of the backup safeties is special-teamer Jordan Dangerfield, a Towson University grad who is the Steelers’ special-teams captain.
–The Steelers’ special-teams unit is turning to former Clemson wideout Ray-Ray McCloud to handle their primary kick and punt return duties. Wideout Diontae Johnson also contributes. McCloud is averaging a robust 18.1 yards per punt return, including a 57-yarder, and 26.3 on kickoffs (sixth-best). Johnson has averaged 7.1 on seven punt returns. The team average of 13 yards per punt return is the NFL’s third-best. The coverage teams are quite excellent, allowing 6.9 yards per punt return and just 18 yards per kick runback, which is tied for the league’s fifth-best.
–Because the Steelers have finished off drives well with 22 touchdowns, veteran placekicker Chris Boswell has attempted just nine kicks. He has converted them all, but none beyond 50 yards. Boswell has missed one of 21 extra-point attempts. Opposing teams have missed three of seven field-goal tries.
–The Steelers brought back punter Jordan Berry, who kicked from 2015-19. Berry was replaced for a time by Dustin Colquitt, son of former Steelers’ punter Craig Colquitt. In his first stint with the team, Berry grossed 44.2 yards per punt and netted 39.9 with 131 coffin-corner kicks, 15 touchbacks, and one punt block. This year, he has kicked two punts for the Steelers, grossing 50 yards per kick and netting 47.5. Both punts landed in the coffin corner.
Prediction
The Steelers and Ravens are outstanding teams, and that characterization adds another layer of intrigue to this intense rivalry. It’s a good bet that their annual meetings’ outcomes will decide the AFC North Division winner.
Both defenses are among the league’s best with plenty of pass-rush options and good run-stuffing ability, but the Ravens rate a slight edge on Special Teams. On offense, Pittsburgh relies on spectacular plays, while Baltimore prefers a run-first approach.
Sunday’s game offers a fascinating dual of tough defenses and differing offensive styles–and a tough pick to make. If the Ravens can grind-it-out and control the clock, that sets up Justin Tucker’s leg magic. Besides, Baltimore’s 17-7 post-bye record and current four-game win streak in such games have me leaning towards the home team.
Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20
