I’m neither BB King nor Buddy Guy, but right now I could sing a song called ‘Midseason Blues.’ I’m coming off an 8-6 performance that leaves my year-to-date record at 60%. A couple of finishes didn’t break my way, but it’s another week–and an opportunity to write a different song.
NOTE: All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Carolina 23, Atlanta 10 (Thursday night): This NFC South Division clash features a Falcons squad making a short trip on a short week to play a confounding Panthers team. But there are times this year when Carolina has at least shown signs of life against quality opposition. That, plus the home field, makes the Panthers the pick. Atlanta has been consistent in blowing leads, as it did against the Lions last week.
Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20: The Ravens are coming off their adjusted bye week to play a home game against their most bitter AFC North Division rival. The league tries to avoid having a team take an off-week before such a game but COVID-19 is running – and ruining – things for everyone. Still, the Ravens haven’t won three straight regular-season games against Pittsburgh since a 2015 sweep and the first 2016 meeting. A Baltimore win here would be three straight. After two straight seasons missing the playoffs, the Steelers are healthier and better than they’ve been–save for linebacker Devin Bush (knee, out for the year). But even as the league’s only undefeated team, I feel Pittsburgh falls a bit short of the Ravens’ level.
Tennessee 34, Cincinnati 20: To be blunt, Cincinnati should have beaten Cleveland last week (and in their first meeting, to boot). Now the Bengals are heading for their bye, which is always a good time for self-scouting and self-evaluation for any team. But before they do that, they must play host to one of the AFC’s best teams in Tennessee. Still, the Titans are one of those teams where 80% is better than 100% of many other squads.
Las Vegas 27, Cleveland 22: The Raiders must feel snake-bit by now; they’ve hung tough in a lot of games that they should have won. Now, they go on the road to face Cleveland–a team heading for a bye that leaves observers wondering. Just how good are these Browns? I still don’t think the Browns will finish with a winning record this year. They had to struggle to beat Cincinnati last week, and they haven’t beaten a quality team all season. Plus, with Odell Beckham, Jr. unavailable the question is: What now? Pick: Raiders.
Buffalo 30, New England 13: Until last week, the Patriots had not lost three straight regular-season games in 18 years. That’s right, nearly two decades. I figured the dynasty was over when Tom Brady left, and that suspicion has been confirmed. Cam Newton has not provided the jolt that this team needs. Meanwhile, Buffalo–a team that has had a dip in form–is at home. Four straight losses for the Pats? I think so.
Indianapolis 31, Detroit 19: Now is the time for the Colts to show just good its offensive line can be. If Philip Rivers could cut down on turnovers, this team could be in the Super Bowl conversation. Dominating the Lions–one week before going back to Indy to face Baltimore–would be a good way to do just that. Yes, Detroit can take solace in last week’s win at Atlanta. But the Lions are stepping up in class here.
Kansas City 51, New York Jets 3: I don’t pay a lick of attention to point spreads, but just about any big number won’t be big enough this week. This one is a mismatch to say the very least.
Green Bay 38, Minnesota 23: Since OT was introduced in 1974, the NFL has had 26 tie games, and these two teams have played to three ties–a record among any pair of clubs. And it could happen again this week. Minnesota desperately needs to shake off a slow start. The Packers, playing at their nearly-invincible Lambeau Field home, are two weeks removed from a perplexing blowout loss to Tampa Bay. Tie game? Naw. Packers win.
Los Angeles Rams 27, Miami 17: Miami is coming off an adjusted bye, while the Rams are heading to their regular off-week. The Dolphins should have the advantage, but… I have a feeling that they made their quarterback switch Tua Tagovailoa a bit too soon. LAR gets the win.
San Francisco 34, Seattle 31: Along with the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game, this is one of the best matchups of the week. The Seahawks are leading a tough division, but this team hadn’t played anyone of consequence until last week. The loss against Arizona exposed a leaky defense. Meanwhile, San Francisco is getting healthier (Deebo Samuel’s injury notwithstanding) and playing better, too. So we’ll take the ‘Niners, unbeaten on the road, to get another away victory.
New Orleans 26, Chicago 13: The Bears bring a tough defense to this home game, but that’s really about it. An anemic offense (especially on the ground) makes this team the most deceptive 5-2 squad I’ve seen in a very long time. And even though New Orleans’ offense is having to make do without Michael Thomas, it should still have enough left to win here.
Los Angeles Chargers 33, Denver 16: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has hit his stride a lot earlier than anyone thought he would (or could), while I’m mystified why any team (I’m talking about you, Denver) would put its faith in Tyrod Taylor. Denver will be at home, but with Drew Lock hurt again and the defense looking porous, I don’t give the Broncos much of a shot in this game.
Philadelphia 30, Dallas 17 (Sunday night): This game should have been flexed out of the prime-time slot. So what’s there to see? For starters, the Eagles are riding their best run of form this season–a good second half against Baltimore and a gutty win over the Giants. As for Dallas, it’s an opportunity to see Ben DiNucci play. Who’s he? Ben’s a rookie third-string quarterback. He’ll likely play because Andy Dalton will spend the week recovering from a concussion that got the perpetrator justifiably ejected.
Tampa Bay 27, New York Giants 13 (Monday night): These two teams hooked up in an entertaining, high-scoring game in Tampa last year. The scheduling formula got them together again–this time in New Jersey. But even with the home field, the Giants don’t stand much of a chance here. The Bucs are getting more consistent. TB and TB get a win.
