Week 3 saw my picks go 10-5-1 (63%), which means I’m 65% over the past two weeks and 60% for the year (due to an uncharacteristically down Week 1). In Week 4, we’ll see who’s the real deal.
NOTE: All games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Denver 17, New York Jets 6 (Thursday night): This is another subpar Thursday-night matchup. The Jets are involved because New York is the top media market in America, and that brings in viewers. But Denver is rather banged up. A Broncos win, while likely, isn’t guaranteed.
Baltimore 34, Washington 13: In both of Baltimore’s Super Bowl seasons, the team lost a regular-season game at Landover’s FedEx Field. Surprisingly, these teams have split their six-lifetime regular-season meetings with the road team having a lot of success. In this one, Baltimore has too much on the line to have a letdown.
Dallas 27, Cleveland 12: In 1994, these teams met in one of those late-season Saturday games at the old Texas Stadium. Browns’ safety Eric Turner, part of the Ravens’ first-ever Pro Bowl class two years later, stopped Cowboys tight end, Jay Novacek, at the goal line as the clock ran out. Cleveland won. That play is sure to be shown a few times, particularly in Cleveland. But the Cowboys, despite a leaky defense, will take this one at home. Yes, Cleveland does have a winning record (2-1) for the first time in six years, but that won’t last long.
Cincinnati 26, Jacksonville 13: These are two teams that need a win badly, and both teams have to rely on relatively inexperienced quarterbacks to get it. The so-called “Minshew Mania” phenomenon fizzled out last week against Miami. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow nearly engineered a win against Cleveland and should get a home victory here over the Jags–a team that is finally showing how bad it truly is, especially on defense.
Tennessee 24, Pittsburgh 23: This game is in doubt due to positive COVID-19 cases among the Titans. If played, it’s the first real test for Pittsburgh (after beating the Giants, Denver, and a struggling Houston team). It’s on the road against a Titans squad that put on a furious rally to beat the luckless Vikings. I expect this contest to be one of the better games of the week–and one that should have a lot to do with playoff seeding. I’m going with the host Titans in a close one.
Chicago 17, Indianapolis 13: These two teams met in Super Bowl 41–the only Super Bowl I can recall where it rained all the way through. No Super Bowl is at stake in this game at Soldier Field, but any win for the Bears lights up the Miracle Mile. Bears win.
Seattle 31, Miami 17: Back when Seattle was part of the AFC, it played in a conference championship game at Miami in what is still the longest road trip between any two NFL cities. But the west-to-east sojourn doesn’t hurt the truly good teams. Miami is coming off a good win and a mini-bye, but the Dolphins are not talented enough to win this home game.
Tampa Bay 24, Los Angeles Chargers 16: The Chargers are healthier now than they were at any time all last season, and they’ve upgraded to a better quarterback in Justin Herbert. Still, though, LAC is as much of a head-scratching riddle as they’ve always been. Now, they go east to Tampa Bay, a team coming off a solid road win at Denver and one that is finding footing on both sides of the ball.
Houston 30, Minnesota 27: This should be one of the week’s most interesting games–if only for the fact that both franchises are struggling mightily out of the gate at 0-3. Houston is home and was more competitive against Pittsburgh on the road than the Vikings were at home. I’ll go with the Texans here.
New Orleans 38, Detroit 21: The Lions are heading to the bye week on the heels of another slow start to a season, last week’s win at Arizona notwithstanding. New Orleans isn’t exactly firing on every cylinder, but they have deeper talent that knows how to execute. Saints take this one at Ford Field.
Arizona 27, Carolina 10: The Panthers should continue to stumble through their rebuild. Kyler Murray may be small, but he plays big and should leave Carolina in the dust. That loss to Detroit last week had to be a fluke. AZ wins a road game.
Los Angeles Rams 34, New York Giants 17: The Rams return home after a furious road rally at Buffalo was undone by a costly–and questionable–pass-interference penalty and subsequent loss. With Los Angeles playing in a much more rugged division–and still smarting from the defeat to the Bills–I like Sean McVay’s offense to run all over the Giants.
Kansas City 36, New England 23: The Patriots look too inconsistent to make a run to the postseason. The Chiefs are working on a short week, but they are at home. KC wins.
Buffalo 31, Las Vegas 19: Long ago, these two franchises met in the AFC title game, and Buffalo won 51-3. The Bills are scoring plenty of points these days, too. The Raiders got a much-desired opening win at their new stadium, but this is a slightly-below-average team. Bills get the W.
San Francisco 24, Philadelphia 20 (Sunday night): Early in the 1994 season, a dominant 49ers team got blown out at home by the Eagles, 40-8–a game that saw quarterback Steve Young yell at head coach George Seifert after he got benched. The ‘Niners never lost again and won the Super Bowl. Young’s pride was hurt, but not nearly as much as this year’s San Francisco roster. But despite the injuries, the ‘Niners are outclassing inferior teams, and the Eagles are that.
Green Bay 41, Atlanta 10 (Monday night): A long time ago, the Falcons became the first team to win a postseason game at Lambeau Field. But this Atlanta team is a far cry from that one. The Packers’ explosive offense should have an easy time as it heads for a bye week.
