Will Texas derail the Cowboys? And will the Buckeyes stumble in Happy Valley? Those are just two questions looming in Week 9 of college football 2020.
Memphis @ #7 Cincinnati
Spread: Cincinnati by 7
Cincinnati vanquished SMU last week and now faces another challenging opponent in Memphis. Cincy’s defense shut down SMU’s high-powered offense, and now they’ll have to contain the Tigers’ Brady White, who’s having a lights-out season (65% completion rate). But the Tigers will need more if they are to prevail.
Memphis will try to force inconsistent Desmond Ridder to beat them with his arm.
Still, Cincy hasn’t given up more than 13 points to FBS opponents this year, so it’s questionable whether the Memphis ‘O’ can put up enough points to win. While I think this game will be competitive (at least for a while), I don’t see the Tigers busting open that tough Bearcats’ defense. Cincy will pull away (it may take until the 4th) and win.
Cincinnati 34, Memphis 28
#17 Indiana @ Rutgers
Spread: Indiana by 11
Surprise! Surprise! Both teams were expected to go into this game 0-1, but they won’t. IU performed a miracle to top Penn State, and Rutgers broke a 20+-game conference losing streak to beat Michigan State–on the road, no less.
In retrospect, two names stand out. For IU, it’s QB Michael Penix who, even in the face of that stout PSU defense, made one clutch play after another. For Rutgers, it’s Greg Schiano. The second-timer has Rutgers playing football again.
On Saturday, I expect to see a battle of opportunistic defenses in a game that will likely come down to Penix v. Rutger’s QB Noah Vedral. Which QB will lead his team on that final, 4th Q drive? It could very well come down to that. If it does, then I’ll go with Penix. The Hoosiers will win a competitive game that should stay within the bounds of an 11-point spread.
Indiana 27, Rutgers 20
Texas @ #6 Oklahoma State
Spread: Oklahoma State by 3.5
The Cowboys passed a tough test against Iowa State last week. This Saturday, Texas presents another challenge for the conference’s lone undefeated team.
For OSU, Spencer Sanders’ return (while not perfect) showed that he can manage the Cowboys’ offense.
But for continuing success, Sanders needs to avoid mistakes and stick to the script. He doesn’t need to win games himself–not with a conference-leading defense on his side.
That said, Breece Hall ran the ball effectively against OSU last week. That’s an opening for Texas … except … the ‘Horns don’t have a Hall-like backfield. That means their hope to win rides on the arm of gunslinger Sam Ehlinger.
Will he be enough for the Longhorns to pull an upset? No. UT will stay close, but (in the end), my money is on the ‘Boys defense. OSU wins and covers.
Oklahoma State 31, Texas 27
Arkansas @ #8 Texas A&M
Spread: Texas A&M by 12
The Aggies have an outside shot of securing the #4 playoff spot. That means A&M can’t afford to overlook a getting-better-each-week Arkansas squad.
Defense is one reason for Arkansas’ improvement (e.g., held Ole Miss’ dangerous offense to only 21 points). Another reason is Feleipe Franks, who has thrown 7 TDs and completed nearly 70% of his passes over the last three weeks.
A&M needs to grind-it-out on Saturday with Isaiah Spiller and also bank on an improved offensive line to give Kellen Mond a chance to open up the field.
Yes, the Hogs are better, but TAM has too much firepower to drop this home game. Aggies will win but won’t cover.
Texas A&M 33, Arkansas 24
GAME OF THE WEEK
#3 Ohio State @ #18 Penn State
Spread: Ohio State by 12.5
Near perfection! That’s what Justin Fields was last week against the Huskers. Now, he has a chance for two-peat perfection against a somewhat depleted Penn State team.
But is there a fly in the ointment for the Buckeyes? Last week, not one running back gained over 50 yards. Against a PSU defense that gave up only 41 yards rushing total against IU, that’s a reason for concern.
But PSU has its own problems–especially on offense. The losses of Noah Cain and Journey Brown are showing, and that means the Lions’ offensive progress is up to Sean Clifford and his ability to find and hit receivers downfield.
That’s asking a lot, especially against OSU’s defense. And keeping pace with the Buckeyes’ offense is … well … asking too much. OSU will win and cover.
Ohio State 38, Penn State 24
