It’s time, fans! It’s opening week of another NFL season, the 101st in league history.
I’ve seen roughly half of the league’s history, and I’ve covered the game since 1996. And if you’ve followed me over the years, you know how I do things: no point spreads, plenty of stats and opinions, a few history lessons, and, well, I try to keep things light, even fun.
Last year, I had a nearly 65% win percentage–162 of the 256 games, which was seven wins shy of my record set in 2011. This year, I’m keen to have a record-breaking year.
NOTE: All games are to be played on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Kansas City 30, Houston 17 (Thursday night): This could have been a great opener–if only because of last year’s playoff, which saw the Texans run out to a 24-0 lead Chiefs only to be trailing at halftime. But Houston general manager/head coach Bill O’Brien engineered one of the most bumbling, incompetent off-seasons by any team in recent history. The Texans should take a couple of steps back this year, and this game will be the start.
Baltimore 41, Cleveland 13: Yes, the Browns won in Baltimore last year, but many other teams won on the road last year (straight-up at a .482 rate, the second-highest percentage since the 1970 merger and highest since a .492 mark in 1972). That said, Baltimore is loaded, motivated, and isn’t likely to lose to an overrated opponent like Cleveland–which, by the way, has an AFC worst .410 lifetime Week 1 win rate.
Miami 23, New England 20: When we last saw these two teams, Miami won in NE in Week 17 to drop the Patriots down a seed, denying them a bye, and setting them up for a home playoff loss to Tennessee. Now, these teams are going in opposite directions.
Philadelphia 33, Washington 16: Hail to The Football Team!? The Eagles aren’t part of the league’s elite, but they are good enough to win this one.
Seattle 17, Atlanta 13: Seattle goes east to open the season against an Atlanta team that improved over the latter part of 2019. The Seahawks are the Baltimore Ravens of the NFC, seemingly always in contention. But their offensive line needs to improve if they are to take the next step. For Atlanta, this year will be a referendum on how much players want to work for head coach Dan Quinn. I’ll go with the ‘Hawks in a squeaker.
Buffalo 27, New York Jets 17: The Buffalo Bills are the favorites to win the AFC East, but if they are to be part of the league’s elite, they must win games like this. General manager and ex-Ravens scout Joe Douglas is using a Baltimore-like template to re-build the Jets, and it might lead to success one day … just not this year.
Carolina 20, Las Vegas 12: The Raiders very well could have been a good landing spot for free-agent quarterback Cam Newton, but he opted for New England instead. So, now, Las Vegas takes on a Cam-less team with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. The Raiders will run the ball well against a perennially-tough defense, but I don’t see them winning this one. Plus, I don’t think LV has a chance of matching what the NHL’s Golden Knights did during its first year on The Strip.
Detroit 19, Chicago 13: Here’s the numbing truth: these are the two worst teams in the NFC North. They both have a long way to go, and their coaches and general managers have a short time to get there.
Indianapolis 31, Jacksonville 6: This game is somewhat similar to the Chicago-Detroit contest–two teams from a division that isn’t accustomed to making Super Bowl appearances. At least Indianapolis has some hope in 2020. The Jaguars are biding time ’til the Draft.
Minnesota 26, Green Bay 20: Don’t think I’ve lost my mind, but I see this as a must-win game for both teams. Yes, I expect these teams to put plenty of distance between themselves and their NFC North rivals, but the NFC is so stacked that the division winner might be the only team to make the playoffs–even with the new seventh seed on tap. I’m picking the Vikings to edge out the Pack for the division title. They’ll win at home this Sunday and–if Green Bay’s offense stagnates at the wrong time again–they’ll win the return match, too.
Cincinnati 27, Los Angeles Chargers 21: Why is THIS game the only CBS matchup in the late-afternoon timeslot? Well, it gives announcers plenty of time to talk about highly-drafted quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. The problem is that Herbert is likely to sit while Tyrod Taylor plays for the Chargers. Meanwhile, Burrow isn’t expected to prosper with a team that isn’t as talented as the one he just left (LSU). Still, I’m calling a bit of an upset here. I’ve never been a believer in Taylor. Besides, Burrow, who’s an Ohio native, will be starting his NFL career with a true homecoming game.
New Orleans 37, Tampa Bay 30: Not long ago, Tampa Bay won a Week 1 game in New Orleans, and now, they put Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski on the field, too. Yes, they’re both be going to Canton one day, but, for now, the NFC South is led by the Saints. New Orleans won’t look past these pewter-clad visitors.
Arizona 26, San Francisco 24: The NFC West is the NFL’s toughest division. If Kyler Murray and a Cardinals’ offense boosted by DeAndre Hopkins addition can make inroads against a solid 49er defense, then this game–and the entire division race–should be even more fun to watch. Yes, fans, I’m taking the Cardinals to pull off a road win.
Dallas 34, Los Angeles Rams 20 (Sunday night): With plenty of offensive weapons and a quarterback betting on himself, the Cowboys remind me of the Ravens’ 2012 team–the one that got otherworldly play from Joe Flacco to bring home a trophy. The Cowboys may be catching the reeling Rams at the right time, which is what the 2019 Ravens did in a blowout win.
Pittsburgh 27, New York Giants 19 (Monday night, early): ESPN landed a matchup of two of the league’s historically-great franchises. What will fans see? The Giants should be better than they’ve been in recent years. Pittsburgh should contend for a playoff spot. (The AFC, you see, isn’t nearly as deep as the NFC.)
Denver 23, Tennessee 17 (Monday night, late): To close out the weekend, a feisty match-up is on tap in the Mile High City. This game, via playoff tiebreakers, should go a long way towards determining the wild-card playoff order of the three bottom seeds. I don’t see either of these clubs finishing first, but I do believe they’ll be entertaining all year long and be in the hunt, too.
