The 2020 Formula One season has yet to start, but we already have big news: Sebastian Vettel is leaving Ferrari at the end of the season. So what does Vettel’s departure mean for Ferrari and Vettel?
Implications for Ferrari
Let’s begin by saying that Ferrari won’t have ‘the pick of the litter” because the top two drivers are unavailable. Max Verstappen has signed a long term contract at Red Bull, and (despite plenty of rumours to the contrary) Lewis Hamilton is most likely to sign a new deal at Mercedes.
So, where does that leave The Prancing Horse?
Lando Norris (l) & Carlos Sainz pose at 2020 McClaren debut (photo, F1.com)
The consensus favourite to replace Vettel is current McLaren driver Carlos Sainz. Sainz enjoyed a fantastic first year with McLaren in 2019 following his move from Renault. He finished 6th in the Drivers Championship and helped McLaren to a much-improved 4th place in the Constructors Championship. His 2019 season also included a first-ever podium visit when he finished 3rd in the Brazilian Grand Prix.
At 25, Sainz has his best years ahead of him–even though he is already a veteran, having competed in 102 Grand Prix races. And he has proven that he can make an impact when joining a team, having gone from Torro Rosso to Renault and then to McLaren. The challenge this time would be driving for a team that’s angling for a championship. That’s a tall order for a driver who has yet to win an F1 race.
Renault’s Nico Hulkenberg (left) & Daniel Ricciardo (photo, Phnom Penh Post)
Daniel Ricciardo is another option for Ferrari. ‘Danny Ric’ won seven races in his time with Red Bull and, in so doing, proved that he is capable of beating the best.
The problem is that Ricciardo’s 2019 move to Renault hasn’t paid off–at least not so far. Hit by poor performance and reliability issues, Renault finished behind McLaren in the Constructor standings. At 30, Ricciardo’s contract will expire at season’s end. That means his future depends on immediate improvement.
But what Ferrari will undoubtedly get with Ricciardo is better team harmony. Widely thought of as ‘the happiest driver on the grid,” he’d offer a welcome change to a Ferrari team that suffered through a rocky 2019 with the public fall-out between Vettel and partner Charles Leclerc. That said, Ricciardo didn’t have the best of experiences at Red Bull with Verstappen–and an equally fast and challenging teammate at Ferrari awaits in Leclerc.
Does Ferrari have other options? Yes. One is Antonio Giovinazzi, and another is Mick Schumacher, the son of seven-time world champion Michael. Each driver has drawbacks. Going to Ferrari would be a considerable jump for Giovinazzi, and Schumacher doesn’t have F1 experience. Worst yet, is that he has had only moderate success in F2.
Implications for Vettel
Red Bull have already ruled out a return of their former 4-time world champion. Max Verstappen is very much their #1 driver. But if Ferrari do sign either Sainz or Ricciardo, Vettel could move into a vacated seat.
Vettel wins! (photo, Daily Express)
Let’s keep in mind that Vettel has won four world titles when Renault were the Red Bull engine partner. That means he has a good relationship with the company. However, if Ricciardo leaves a team where he sees no immediate signs of improvement, would Vettel want to join a team that isn’t likely to challenge for a title?
McLaren could be a better option for at least two reasons. First, the team seems to be improving, and, second, the company will launch a Mercedes engine partnership in 2021. Having a proven driver like Vettel could be just what McClaren needs to power its way into the championship mix.
The questions are whether McLaren would want Vettel (a difficult sort) after the team experienced an unhappy time with Kiko Alonso? And would Vettel suit Lando Norris as a teammate? The issue there is that Vettel underperformed when challenged by a young, fast teammate like Leclerc, and Norris has the ability and speed to do the same.
What does it all mean? If nothing comes up to his liking, Vettel could leave F1. If that happens, he will leave with head held high–a four-time world champion and with the 3rd most wins (53) of any driver in FI history. Vettel could try his hand at the Indy 500 or Le Mans, just like Alonso and others who have left F1. Vettel could move to the growing Formula E series.
Formula E is seen as the future of motor racing, but it’s still in its early days. That said, Vettel might see it as the perfect time to take a sport to a new level and become its headliner, much the way David Beckham did with America’s Major League Soccer.
Speculation aside, we know one thing for sure. The media, fans, and F1 will track what’s in store for Ferrari and Vettel–two of the sport’s biggest names.
