Who and what will be the X-factor in this game? Read on to find out.
The last time we saw a 1-point spread in the Super Bowl was when the Seattle Seahawks failed to defend their title against the New England Patriots in the 2014 season. The Pats won 28-24 in one of the most equally matched and thrilling Super Bowls we’ve ever seen.
Courtesy: Sharp Football Analysis
I believe we are going to get a similar contest when the 49ers and Chiefs square off in Miami this Sunday.
Historically, the odds in the Super Bowl have had pretty big betting lines–considering the two supposed best teams in the league are playing in the final game of the season. In very recent Super Bowl matchups, the odds have been within a touchdown. However, looking back, there were plenty of times a team was favored by 7 points or more.
Two huge spreads come to mind as the 49ers were 18.5 points favored over the San Diego Chargers in 1994. San Francisco actually covered winning by a final of 49-26. The other is the famous ‘guarantee game’ by Joe Namath and the then-AFL New York Jets, who were 18 point underdogs but managed to pull off the outright upset over the Baltimore Colts.
We’ve been treated to some nail-biting Super Bowls that have come down to the final play. We’ve also seen complete blowouts where one team was too much for the other.
I think we’re in for another nail-biter in Super Bowl LIV. We have two of the most consistent and well-disciplined teams playing for the Lombardi Trophy. Both squads have had great seasons, and they played their best football when it mattered most.
There are a million storylines in this game, and you can catch “The 49ers Brawl Podcast“ for more content on that plus all the X’s and O’s you need to know. But right now, I want to give you the basics and, of course, my prediction based on my assessment.
The 49ers’ strength is running the football. They have three competent running backs and also run the end-around with receivers. Despite the Chiefs’ recent improvement defensively–holding teams to 89 yards rushing in the postseason–to me it’s more of fabrication from the truth. We all know that the ‘Niners can rip off over 200 yards on the ground quickly.
Courtesy: Chiefs Wire-USAToday
The Chiefs’ strength is at quarterback with Patrick Mahomes and, also, with the speed of his skilled play-makers. The Chiefs are probably the best passing team in the league–a group that can score in the blink of an eye. The wide receivers–Hill, Watkins, and Hardman–are lightning quick. And you have to be aware of Damien Williams coming out of the backfield on screen passes.
On the other side of the field, the 49ers rush four players more successfully than any other team. BUT if they get upfield to quickly, the screen pass can get the ‘Niners defense.
The 49ers finished #1 in passing defense this year–in large part due to Richard Sherman locking down one side of the field and players stepping up in a great system managed by defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. That said, San Fran can get exposed to deep passes. That’s why Jaquarski Tartt will play a huge roll in this game. As the safety, he’ll have to make sure none of those Chiefs receivers get behind him. Good luck!
I urge you to check out our podcast right here. For now, let’s get to who wins and why.
The one thing people are forgetting is that the 49ers can score a lot of points when needed. We all saw Jimmy G going blow-for-blow against Drew Brees and the Saints earlier this season. San Fran was able to pick up a crucial road victory in New Orleans, and that win ultimately gave the ‘Niners the #1 seed in the NFC. But Garoppolo didn’t have just one explosive game. He did it week-after-week, especially late in the 4th quarter when he was needed most.
So what will separate the two teams in deciding the outcome of this game? Here’s your answer.
Other than heaven-forbid a significant injury, a bunch of turnovers or horrible weather, the one thing where the 49ers have an advantage is defensive strength/scheme. Teams have tried to pressure Mahomes all year, but with very little success. When defenses blitz the Chiefs, the offensive line often breaks down, but Mahomes finds the open man. The 49ers don’t need to blitz Mahomes because they can create a ton of pressure on the quarterback without blitzing.
The ‘Niners’ advantage is being able to drop seven players into coverage, which makes finding an open receiver much more difficult. Not only that, but tipped balls and broken plays can lead to turnovers.
One thing that people haven’t spoken about is that the ‘Niners face Russell Wilson twice a year as they did this season, and in critical games. Playing against Wilson is like playing against Mahomes. The similarities are uncanny. Yes, Mahomes is bigger and has a bit of a stronger arm, but playing against Wilson adds another dimension to game film study.
I don’t see many turnovers in this game, and I don’t see a blowout. However, I would not be shocked to see San Fran pick off Mahomes a couple of times. We know the Chiefs’ offense strikes quickly, and they always manage to stay in the game regardless of the deficit or time on the clock. The 49ers have also proven they can come back from behind and play with the big boys.
To me, the fact that the Niners will be prepared for those screenplays. And knowing that KC will be throwing the ball a lot gives the West Coast team a nice advantage before the ball is even snapped. Add that component to an already great defense, and there could be problems for the opposition.
Kittle in charge (photo, CBS Sports)
One last thing to keep your eye on is all the motion and movement the 49ers make before the ball is snapped. They confuse even the best of defenses and have many play-makers to use in these situations. Expect to see Deebo Samuel get the ball in a variety of ways. George Kittle will likely be the focal point in the passing game. Emmanuel Sanders is always good for a trick play, and he can get downfield and make big plays.
Pay attention to one of the few fullbacks in football. Kyle Juszczyk is a real NFL Swiss Army knife! Watch how the offensive line moves on run plays with their zone-blocking scheme, allowing Mostert to use his speed and vision.
We can talk about the Chiefs offense all day, but you can do the same with the 49ers as Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling is a perfect match.
So, here’s my prediction: 49ers 30, Chiefs 28.
MVP: Fred Warner (Warner wears #54, and since it’s SB 54, I’ll go with the irony!)
