The Ravens will face an opponent very similar to the San Francisco team they defeated on Sunday. Expect another tight, tense, and back-and-forth game with Baltimore emerging at the end–just like last week.
WHAT: Week 14, Game 13 at Buffalo Bills
WHEN: 1 p.m. (EST); Sunday, December 8
WHERE: New Era Field; Orchard Park, New York (71,870)
RECORDS: Ravens, 10-2; Bills, 9-3
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 5-3; in Buffalo, the Ravens are 0-2, having lost there in 2007 and 2015
REFEREE: Shawn Smith
About the Bills
–The Bills were born in 1960 as one of the original members of the American Football League. Owner Ralph Wilson was known as part of the “Foolish Club,” a group of original owners who were roundly criticized for what seemed like a foolhardy venture. When Wilson died in 2014 at age 95, Korean-born Kim Pegula and husband Terry, who owns the National Hockey League’s Buffalo Sabres, beat out two main groups to own the team–one headed by rock star Jon Bon Jovi, the other by businessman/reality television host Donald Trump. Kim Pegula is one of two foreign-born owners in the NFL. Shahid Khan of Jacksonville is the other.
–In its history, Buffalo has accumulated 18 postseason appearances in 59 full seasons. In the AFL era, Buffalo won three division titles (1964-66) and two league championships (’64, ’65). In the AFC East, the Bills have seven division championships–none since 1995–and eight wild-card berths, the most recent in 2017 after an 18-year playoff absence. The franchise is 4-1 in the AFC Championship Game but is best known for being the only one to appear in four straight Super Bowls (25 through 28) and losing all of them (to the New York Giants, Washington, and Dallas twice).
—From 1960-72, the Bills played in a substandard venue, War Memorial Stadium, known affectionately as “The Rockpile.’ Scenes from the classic baseball movie, The Natural, were filmed there. In 1973, the team moved into Rich Stadium, named after the eponymous food company. That name stayed on the venue until 1998 when it was renamed for owner Ralph Wilson. In 2016, naming rights were sold to New Era, a company that manufactures baseball caps. The stadium has never had real grass. It has used A-Turf Titan 50 since 2011.
—When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they were aligned alongside the Bills in the AFC East–from the 1970 merger up until the Colts’ move after the 1983 season. In a series marked by long streaks of success by both teams, they ended up 13-13-1 against each other with the Colts winning five straight in the early part of the series and, then, Buffalo taking the final five meetings before the Colts moved.
—The Ravens-Bills lifetime series consists of just eight meetings so far. Figuring prominently in that fact is that Baltimore has faced Buffalo fewer times than any other AFC team. The home team has won the last seven meetings, and Buffalo is one of several cities where the Ravens have never won. The Bills beat the Ravens there in 2007, kicking off a Ravens-record nine-game losing streak. They beat Baltimore again in 2013 when Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco threw five interceptions. Two of them, including the game-cincher, were hauled in by linebacker Kiko Alonso. The Ravens and Bills have opened two seasons against each other, both in Baltimore, with the Ravens winning both (2016 and 2018).
—Sunday’s game against the Ravens is Buffalo’s second home game in three weeks. Sunday’s game will precede Buffalo’s third, two-game road swing of the year–to Pittsburgh and New England. The Bills’ first two games of the season were at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey against the Jets and, then, the Giants.
—Even though the Bills have played a dozen games so far this year, only five of them have been decided by one-score margins. The Bills are 3-2 in those games. Buffalo is currently riding a three-game winning streak and is presently the No. 5 playoff seed in the AFC as the top wild-card spot. The team is sitting one game behind the AFC East-leading New England Patriots, who beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this year, 16-10. The Pats will host the Bills in Foxborough in Week 16.
—‘Balance’ is the key for the Bills’ offense. The offense has scored 12 rushing touchdowns and 17 through the air. They have run the ball 363 times and attempted to pass it 411 times (including 28 sacks allowed). The Bills’ biggest point advantages have come in the second quarter (87-45) and the fourth (88-52). Buffalo has allowed 20 or more points in just three of 12 games and only once in its last five contests.
—For a second straight week, the Ravens will be facing a team with a strong pass rush. Buffalo has 37 sacks from 16 different players.
—On the penalty front, Buffalo has been charged with 92 accepted penalties, the league’s tenth-most. The Bills have committed 20 false-start penalties, making them one of only four teams to have 20 or more and only four fewer than the league leader. The team has 19 offensive holding violations, only six behind the leader in that category. Individually, five players have committed six or more penalties each, led by tight end Lee Smith (five false starts, three holds). According to STATS, INC., Buffalo has been charged with 18 dropped passes, the AFC’s second-most and the third-most in the league, two behind league leader Chicago.
—Relatively speaking, there are few turnovers in games involving the Bills, as Buffalo has recorded just 15 takeaways but has given the ball away just 13 times for a modest plus-2 turnover ratio. The Bills have seven fumble recoveries from five different players and have picked off eight passes–also by five different defenders. On offense, Buffalo has fumbled 17 times but, remarkably, has lost only four of them to the opponents. Quarterback Josh Allen has been charged with three of the four lost fumbles.
—Through its first 12 games, Buffalo is ranked 17th in total offense (fifth rushing at 137.9 yards per game, 23rd passing, 19th scoring). The Bills’ third-down offense is around the middle of the league pack, but the team is tied for eighth in red-zone touchdown percentage. Defensively, the Bills are similar to San Francisco in that they are ranked third overall but are mediocre against the run. They are ranked 14th against the run and third against the pass, while ranking third in scoring defense, allowing 15.7 points per game, the league’s third-best figure behind New England and San Francisco. The Bills’ third-down defense is the league’s eighth-best.
–-Sean McDermott, 45, a William & Mary graduate, is the 19th head coach in Bills history. With a career record of 24-21 (including postseason), he is now in his third year with the team. In 2017, he guided Buffalo to six home wins–the first time since 1999, which had been the last time the team made the playoffs before McDermott took them there in 2017. That made him the third head coach to take Buffalo to the postseason in his first year with the team (Joe Collier, 1968, and Wade Phillips, 1998). McDermott came to the Bills after a six-year run as the Carolina Panthers’ defensive coordinator.
—Second-year quarterback Josh Allen was a 2018 first-round pick (seventh overall) out of Wyoming. He was selected 25 spots ahead of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. He was second-team All-Mountain West and was named Most Valuable Player of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. His career so far has been average with a completion rate of 57.6 percent in just under two seasons, with 26 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. His passer rating is 78.8. This year, he has shown signs of improvement with 16 touchdown passes against just eight interceptions and a passer rating of just over 88. He posted a career-high 120.7 rating in Dallas last week and has rated at 90 or better the last three games. Allen is also a running threat, leading the team with eight rushing touchdowns. Allen has carried the ball 93 times and scored eight touchdowns on the ground. He is backed up by former Southern California standout Matt Barkley, now in his seventh NFL season.
—Devin Singletary, a compact, 5-foot-7, 203-pounder, leads the team with 553 yards rushing, but the leader in carries is future Hall of Fame back Frank Gore. Gore has carried the ball 146 times for 552 yards and scoring twice while averaging just under four yards-per-carry. Gore recently passed Barry Sanders to take third on the NFL’s all-time rushing list, trailing only Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton, both of them Hall of Famers. Gore was a 2005 third-round pick from Miami who is now on his fourth NFL team at the age of 36. The five-time Pro Bowl pick has rushed for 15,300 career yards and scored 93 total touchdowns, 75 of them on the ground. He needs 1427 yards to pass Payton for second place.
—Buffalo has seven pass catchers who have at least ten receptions each. The wideout corps is led by a pair of castoffs–ex-Arizona and Baltimore deep threat John Brown and former Dallas slot man and return specialist Cole Beasley, who scored against his old team on Thanksgiving Day. Brown has a team-high 61 catches and a 14-yard average, while Beasley has 55 grabs at 11 yards per catch. The pair has five touchdowns each, eating up ten of the team’s total of 17 receiving scores. Isaiah McKenzie has 20 receptions with a touchdown, and Dawson Knox, a rookie tight end from Mississippi, has snared 25 passes with a pair of touchdowns. Gore has contributed ten receptions.
—The offensive line paces a solid ground game but has allowed 28 quarterback sacks. Fifth-year center Mitch Morse is a classic case of someone drafted to help with a team’s offensive line, but who priced himself out of his team’s cap capability. After four years in Kansas City, he landed in Buffalo as an unrestricted free agent. Dion Dawkins and rookie Cody Ford are the tackles; Ford is a right tackle from Oklahoma who has played with standouts such as Baker Mayfield and Mark Andrews in recent seasons with the Sooners. Jon Feliciano is the right guard, and Quinton Spain handles the left side; both of them are in their fifth seasons in the league.
—Buffalo’s defensive line rotation is very deep, experienced, and talented. Defensive ends Jerry Hughes and Trent Murphy have combined for five sacks. Defensive tackles Ed Oliver (two sacks, forced fumble, pass breakup last week), Star Lotulelei (who had his first career interception last week), and Jordan Phillips all push the pass pocket as well as any trio in the league. Phillips leads the team with 7.5 sacks, but Oliver and defensive end Shaq Lawson, a pair of first-rounders, have combined for 10.5 sacks. The line does an efficient job clogging up passing lanes and letting teammates make the tackles. Oliver leads this unit in total tackles with 26. Murphy and Lawson have 25 each so far this year. Phillips has 23.
—The Bills have a solid linebacking corps. Matt Milano is on the strong side, Lorenzo Alexander is the “Will” (weak-sider), and middle man Tremaine Edmunds, a first-round draft pick from Virginia Tech, is the team leader in total tackles with 90. Milano (51 solo stops) is in his third year from Boston College. Alexander is the venerable veteran of the group. The 36-year-old is his 13th season from California. Alexander became more of a pass rusher late in his career with 12.5 sacks in 2016 and 6.5 last year. He has two of the team’s 37 sacks this year. Alexander is in his fourth year with the Bills after having spent time in Oakland, Arizona, and Washington.
–On its depth chart, Buffalo its five defensive backs in its base package, including nickel corner Taron Johnson. The main outside corners are Tre’Davious White, who has a team-high four interceptions (second-most in the league), and Levi Wallace, the team’s leading tackler with 53 solo stops. Cornerback Jordan Poyer has 81 total tackles, second-most on the team, and veteran safety Micah Hyde has 56. Hyde (ten tackles, forced fumble last week) and Poyer each have an interception. But curiously, of the five different players who have picked off passes for Buffalo, White’s seven-yard return on one of his thefts is the only yardage gained after any of the interceptions.
—Return specialist Andre Roberts is 31 years old and in his 11th year in the league. Buffalo is the sixth NFL team for which he has played, having made stops in Arizona, Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, and the New York Jets before landing in Buffalo this year as a street free agent. On punts, he is averaging 7.2 yards per return with no runback longer than 22 yards. He has nine fair catches in 33 attempts. The Bills’ punt coverage unit is allowing ten yards per return. On kicks, Roberts is doing much better, averaging over 28 yards per return. But the kick coverage team is allowing 23 per runback. Safety Micah Hyde has a kick-return touchdown to his credit.
—Kicker Stephen Hauschka is in his third year in Buffalo and the 12th year in the league. He broke into the league with Baltimore after Matt Stover left for Indianapolis. He spent two years with the Ravens before moving on to Denver, Seattle, and now Buffalo. In Baltimore, he was 10-for-15 on field goals, but he has one of the four missed extra points in team history (block vs. Cleveland, 2009). This year with the Bills, he has missed two extra points and is 15-for-21 on field goals, going just 1-for-5 beyond 50 yards.
—Corey Bojorquez, a second-year player from New Mexico, is the punter. He has 26 coffin-corner kicks in 54 punts. Bojorquez is grossing 42.2 yards per punt and is netting 37.3.
Prediction
The Ravens are facing an opponent very similar to the San Francisco team they defeated last week– a squad with a strong running game, an excellent secondary, and a questionable defense against the run.
The Ravens have never won in Buffalo, but those losses were marked by questionable play-calling and a scattershot Joe Flacco, who threw five interceptions in the last loss. The Ravens are a much different team now, having won in two venues this year where they hadn’t before (Seattle, Los Angeles Coliseum). They’re winning with a different type of quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who offers a clear contrast to draft classmate Josh Allen, who (to be fair) is getting better by cutting down on his turnovers.
The Ravens are equipped to win a game like this–perhaps better than at any time in program history. But the profile of these teams suggests that it’s likely to be a tight, back-and-forth game.
Baltimore 27, Buffalo 16
