Ravens Week 13 v. San Francisco 49ers: Opponent Analysis & Game Prediction

Despite having a strong defense and an improving Jimmy G at QB, the challenge this week for SF is an explosive Ravens’ offense, its sturdy defense, and Baltimore’s notoriously raucous home crowd. Advantage goes to the Ravens with a younger, faster team that’s running in stride.

WHAT: Week 13, Game 12 vs. San Francisco 49ers
WHEN: 1 p.m. (EST); Sunday, December 1
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: 49ers, 10-1: Ravens, 9-2
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 3-2, having won the middle three games with San Francisco winning the inaugural meeting, as well as the most recent game in Santa Clara in 2015. In Baltimore, the Ravens are 2-0 against the ‘Niners, having won in 2003 and 2011, as well as a 2014 preseason game. The teams met in New Orleans in Super Bowl 47, a game the Ravens won, 34-31.
REFEREE: Brad Allen

About the 49ers

—The San Francisco 49ers are currently in their 74th season of operation, with the last 70 of them taking place in the National Football League. The team played in the All-America Football Conference from 1946-49 before being admitted to the NFL in a merger, along with the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Colts.

—The franchise was started by lumberyard tycoon Tony Morabito, who recognized that professional sports would soon flourish west of the Mississippi River. The 49ers, named for the gold-rush prospectors who migrated west after gold was discovered at Sutter’s Mill in 1849, was the first pro sports team based in the San Francisco Bay Area.

—The 49ers have had a similar history to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In a word, they were doormats. That changed, though, when they began stacking up 26 playoff appearances, seven wild-card berths, 19 division championships. All of that happened during a relatively short period–between 1970 and 2012. It was impressive nonetheless with six NFC Championship Game wins in 15 appearances. San Fran was the first team to win five Super Bowls, a mark that has been since surpassed by the Steelers (with six).

—The 49ers are recognized as being the best team of the 1980s. The team won Super Bowls 16, 19, 23, and 24 over Cincinnati, Miami, Cincinnati, and Denver, respectively, and adding Super Bowl 29 over the then-San Diego Chargers after the 1994 season. The ‘Niners would not lose a Super Bowl until falling to Baltimore in Super Bowl 47 (following the 2012 campaign).

—When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they were aligned in the Western Conference. That put the Colts in the same conference as the 49ers and Rams. The geographic misalignment was intentional–to achieve competitive balance, so said the league. That’s why the teams played each other so often. In many years, the Colts would end the regular season with consecutive games at Los Angeles and San Francisco, staying out west in between contests.

—The Baltimore Colts won the all-time series with the 49ers, 21-14. After the teams met in 1972, they would not meet again until 1986–the third season after the Colts had moved to Indianapolis. In Baltimore, the ‘Niners lost 12 of 17 games in Memorial Stadium, including a Colts come-from-behind 35-27 win that helped point the way to the 1958 championship.

—As for the Ravens’ history with the 49ers, the teams have met just five times in the regular season.  San Francisco is one of the clubs that has had the fewest meetings with the Ravens. In a rainy Candlestick Park in 1996, the 49ers scored a late rub-it-in touchdown courtesy of Cleveland native Elvis Grbac, who wanted to avenge the Browns’ move to Baltimore earlier that year. In 2003, the Ravens took a 44-6 home win partially due to a Ray Lewis interception runback for a score.

—Ravens’ Super Bowl-winning quarterback Trent Dilfer started for the ‘Niners in a 9-7 Ravens win. In 2011, Baltimore appeared in a Thanksgiving game for the first time since the Colts tied the Detroit Lions in 1965. Dennis Pitta scored his first NFL touchdown as the black-jerseyed Ravens beat the ‘Niners, 16-6, in the first of three “Har-Bowls” contested between head-coaching brothers John and Jim Harbaugh. The second meeting was in Super Bowl 47, and the third took place in the 2014 preseason and after the teams held joint practices in Baltimore.

—This year, the 49ers have been the authors of some of the most decisive margins of victory in the league. One-score margins have decided only three of their 11 games, and the team has won two of those games. The ‘Niners got off to an 8-0 start before losing in overtime to Seattle but has won two straight since. San Francisco’s ten victories have been by an average margin of 17.2 points. While San Francisco did have a three-game home stretch in midseason, Sunday’s game in Baltimore marks the start of two straight road games for the third time this year. The ‘Niners go to New Orleans next week.

—San Francisco is currently the top playoff seed in the NFC. New England is the only AFC team that has that distinction through Week 12. If the playoffs were to start this week, the ‘Niners and Pats would have home-field advantage for as many as two playoff games–the Divisional round and the conference title game. The teams would have Wild Card Weekend byes.

—San Francisco is one of only three teams in the NFL that has run the ball more than it has passed it. Baltimore and Minnesota are the other teams. The 49ers have run the ball 371 times and passed it on 360 occasions (including 22 sacks allowed). The team plays a run-oriented, ball-control offense similar to Baltimore’s. Its time-of-possession per-game average of 33:24 is the league’s (second-best to Baltimore’s 34:20). As further testimony to the team’s balance, it has scored 15 rushing touchdowns and 20 through the air. San Francisco has point advantages in all four quarters–of at least 37 points in each stanza. The defense has allowed 20 or more points in just four of 11 games.

—On the penalty front, the 49ers have committed 71 accepted infractions, the league’s eighth-fewest. Despite the success the team has had running the ball, they have been called for 19 offensive holding penalties, which is tied with Denver for the league’s third-most. The team has not been called for illegal contact or a personal foul all season, but it has been flagged seven times for defensive pass interference. Cornerback Richard Sherman has four pass-interference penalties, part of his team-leading six flags. San Francisco has been charged with 15 dropped passes, tied with Cleveland for the league’s third-most, and just three off Miami’s league-leading total.

—Despite having a turnover ratio that is a rather modest plus-6, the 49ers have forced a staggering league-high total of 21 fumbles, recovering 12 of them via eight different players. The 49ers are one of only four teams to have recovered ten or more fumbles. Defensive lineman DeForest Buckner has three recoveries, and he ran one of them back for a score. San Francisco’s 11 interceptions, spread out among eight players with two run back for touchdowns, are the league’s fourth-most. The team’s 22 total takeaways are the league’s third-most, trailing only New England and Pittsburgh. On the giveaway front, the team has lost only seven fumbles but has thrown ten interceptions.

—Through its first 11 games, San Francisco is ranked sixth in total offense. The team is second to Baltimore in rushing at 145 yards per game, 14th in passing, second to Baltimore in scoring at 29.5 points per game, third-best on third downs at over 47 percent conversions, and seventh in first down per game at over 22. The 49ers are ranked first in total defense (19th vs. rush, first vs. pass by allowing 136.9 yards per game) and second to New England in scoring (allowing 14.8 points per game). The Niners have the league’s third-best red-zone defense at over 40 percent touchdowns allowed, the second-best third-down conversion rate at 30 percent, and the lowest number of first downs allowed per game at just over 14.

—Third-year head coach Kyle Shanahan (20-23 record) is the 20th head coach in Francisco’s franchise history. He had most recently served as the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator, helping to lead that team to Super Bowl 51. Shanahan, the son of the long-time head coach and coordinator Mike Shanahan, has also been an offensive coordinator in Cleveland, Washington, and Houston. In six of his nine years as a coordinator, his offenses posted top-ten leaguewide rankings. While in Atlanta in 2016, quarterback Matt Ryan was a league MVP under his tutelage.

—Starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is a product of Eastern Illinois. That’s a Division I-AA (FCS) school that’s also Tony Romo’s alma mater. Garoppolo took his team to the national-title playoffs as a senior. After being drafted by New England, he was dealt to San Francisco, where he became one of five quarterbacks in NFL history to win his first seven starts. This year, Garoppolo has completed two-thirds of his passes for 20 touchdowns, ten interceptions, and a passer rating of 100.6. He has won all five road starts with nine touchdowns and four interceptions.

—Like Baltimore, San Francisco has a multi-faceted ground game, with five players having at least 33 carries so far this year. Third-year back Matt Breida, who has been slowed by injury this year and was inactive last week, leads the team with 542 yards, a five-yard average, and a touchdowns. Tevin Coleman has started in Breida’s absence, contributing 448 yards and six touchdowns. Raheem Mostert has a pair of scores, and Jeff Wilson, Jr. has four touchdowns. Garoppolo is not averse to running the ball to keep defenses honest, but he averages less than two yards-per-carry. Former Ravens draftee Kyle Juszczyk is the blocking fullback. He’ll carry and catch the ball more often than most at his position. He has 13 receptions.

—San Francisco has plenty of targets to whom Garoppolo can throw the ball. The team has 20 passing touchdowns, which have been hauled in by 12 different receivers. Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle leads the team with 52 receptions, a 13-yard average, and three touchdowns. He just returned from knee and ankle injuries last week after missing two games. He had an impact on the game, too, by hauling in six passes for 129 yards and a score against Green Bay. Deebo Samuel has a pair of scores to go with his 40 receptions, and Kendrick Bourne has 21 grabs and a trio of touchdowns.

–Longtime NFL vet Emmanuel Sanders, acquired in a midseason trade, has 17 catches and running backs Breida and Coleman have 19 and 16 catches, respectively. Sanders, Samuel, and Kittle were all questionable with injuries last week, but all of them took the field against Green Bay in that Sunday-night blowout win. Sanders has had five or more catches in each of his last three games in Baltimore.

—Despite the Niners’ success on offense, the team’s offensive line has not been a model of stability. Perennial left tackle Joe Staley has missed several games this year with injuries, and backup Austin Skule was not effective when he saw field time. At right tackle, former Notre Dame star Mike McGlinchey has been steady, but not as outstanding as his first-round draft status would suggest. Left guard Laken Tomlinson is a five-year player from Duke who played alongside Ravens center Matt Skura. Right guard Mike Person, a Montana State alum, is a seventh-round pick who has lasted nine years in the league. He just received a three-year contract extension. At center, Weston Richburg is in his sixth season.

—The 49ers’ defensive line is a mixture of home-grown players and outside acquisitions. The line sets the pace for a pass rush that has already racked up a league-high 44 sacks from 13 different players at all levels of the defense. Ex-Kansas City standout Dee Ford (6.5 sacks, third on the team) and five-year veteran Arik Armstead (team-high ten sacks, two last week) are at the ends. Ford, a Pro Bowl pick last year, rang up 13 sacks while Armstead was drafted out of Oregon.

—DeForest Buckner has pounced on three fumble recoveries and has 46 total tackles along with 5.5 sacks. He is living up to his first-round playmaking status. Partner DJ Jones had to go the junior-college route before landing at Mississippi and becoming one of the Southeastern Conference’s best. One of the backups at end is Nick Bosa, one of the pass-rushing Bosa brothers, who has eight sacks (second on the team) despite being listed as a second-stringer. Bosa’s 14 tackles for loss this year are second-most in the league.

–The 49ers are putting their faith in a trio of extremely young linebackers. Middle linebacker Fred Warner (11 tackles, sack, forced fumble last week), who has three sacks as well as a team-high 63 tackles, is only in his second year from Brigham Young. He became the first NFL player this century to begin his career with four straight games of ten or more tackles. He is flanked by strong-side backer Azeez Al Shaar and weak-side player Dre Greenlaw. Al Shaar, from Florida Atlantic, is a rookie who grew up in a family of nine children where he had to be the father figure. Greenlaw is a rookie from Arkansas who has exceptional speed. He has 45 total tackles this year.

–In the San Francisco secondary, Richard Sherman (team-high three pickoffs, one touchdown) holds down one corner. The perennial Pro Bowl cover man is not unfamiliar with the Bay Area, having attended Stanford before being drafted by Seattle. When he was cut loose by the Seahawks, he wanted to stay in the NFC West to face the Seahawks twice per season. Sherman has three pass breakups and a pickoff in two career games against the Ravens. On the other corner is third-year player Ahkello Witherspoon, while the nickel corner is K’Waun Williams (two interceptions), a Pitt product. The safeties are free safety Jimmie Ward and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt, who are a respectively second and third on the team in solo tackles with 36 and 31.

—Second-year backup receiver Richie James, Jr. is the 49ers’ return specialist. A 5-foot-9, 180-pound speedster from Middle Tennessee, James was named to the Pro Football Writers’ Association All-Rookie team last year. This season, he is averaging a mediocre 18.8 yards on kick returns and an above-average 8.5 on punts. The ‘Niners’ coverage teams are doing quite well, allowing only 3.1 yards per punt return and just over 20 yards per kick runback.

—Longtime NFL kicking veteran Robbie Gould is injured, so Chase McLaughlin is the ‘Niners’ current kicker. The rookie from Illinois loves listening to classical music before games. So far, the approach seems to be working. He is 7-for-8 on field goals and is perfect on eight extra-point kicks. He has not yet attempted a field goal from 50 yards or more.

—Mitch Wishnowsky is the team’s new punter after longtime stalwart Andy Lee left for Arizona. Wishnowsky is a 27-year-old rookie from Utah who, at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, is one of the league’s biggest punters. Wishnowsky, a native Australian, was intrigued by NFL video clips that his friends had shown him, so he took up the punting trade. He attended the ProKick Australia camp, which has placed over 50 punters at Division 1 U.S. schools. Wishnowsky performing, too. In 36 punts, he is grossing 44.8 yards per punt, netting 42.6 yards, with 16 coffin-corner kicks, and two touchbacks.

Prediction

At season’s start, the San Francisco defense was so stingy that fans were checking the record books to see if the team would break the 2000 Ravens’ record of fewest points allowed in a 16-game schedule (165). That won’t happen, but that doesn’t take away from what the unit has accomplished.

The issue for San Fran this week is the Ravens’ on the field and Baltimore’s notoriously loud home crowd. It would have helped the West Coasters if the game had been flexed to a later start time. As it is now, the game will begin at 10 a.m. California time.

It all adds up to this: advantage Ravens with its younger, faster team that’s running in stride.

I predict a tight, tense first half before the Ravens pull away after halftime to win by two scores.

Baltimore 31, San Francisco 17