At 40-11 (78%) on the year, here are five picks for Week 11.
#5 Penn State @ #13 Minnesota
Spread: Penn State by 6.5
Minnesota’s dream season is on the line when #5 Penn State storms into Minneapolis this weekend. But who are these Gophers? Record-wise, P.J. Fleck has his team looking like a contender. But if you look at the quality of teams they’ve played, Minnesota looks more like a pretender.
It’s the biggest game of Fleck’s Minnesota career (photo, Daily Herald)
With Penn State, there’s no such confusion. The unbeaten Lions have played top-notch competition, including resurgent Michigan most recently.
To have any chance, Minnesota will have to run the ball successfully. But I don’t see that happening against PSU’s staunch defense. And it’s a stretch to think that QB Tanner Morgan can lead UM to a win through the air.
With a strong feeling that Minnesota is facing a rude awakening, I’m picking PSU to win and cover.
Penn State 34, Minnesota 17
#9 Baylor @ TCU
Spread: Baylor by 2.5
There’s no question what awaits when these schools play: each team gets the other’s best shot. And the same questions loom each year: Which team has the most to gain by winning? Who will take a bigger hit if it loses?
Probably not this week (photo, TCU Athletics)
This year, Baylor can’t afford to lose. Period. The undefeated Bears are 8-0, ranked #9 nationally. They need to keep winning to have any chance of playing in an ‘NY6 bowl’ and–if everything goes right–getting into the College Football Playoff. TCU, at 4-4 on the season, has no such rewards waiting at season’s end.
But what may appear to be a mismatch, really isn’t a mismatch at all–and that’s why the spread is only 2.5 points. One reason is that the better team, Baylor, is unpredictable. Yes, BU has a pair of double-digit road wins against teams ranked in the CFP’s Top 25 (KSU and Okla State), but the Bears have struggled against all-ran teams–just as they did last week against the Mountaineers at home.
TCU has been up-and-down, too, and now the Frogs will go into this game with Max Duggan banged-up. And with TCU’s quarterback troubles, this team doesn’t match up well with Baylor. Yes, the rivalry-game factor will play a role, but Baylor will take care of business. Bears will win and cover.
Baylor 31, TCU 20
#20 Kansas State @ #25 Texas
Spread: Texas by 7
K-State’s ‘Miracle Man,’ Chris Klieman (photo, 247Sports)
KSU is a surprise! Credit Chris Klieman for that.
But if the ‘Cats’ fortunes are to remain on the plus-side, KSU needs to beat another quality opponent, Texas. It won’t be easy, either. That’s because the Longhorns are getting healthy. Defenders Jalen Green and Caden Sterns will return this week, and that’s bad news for K-State.
KSU, on the other hand, is more confident in its offense these days. Skylar Thompson has looked better in a dual-threat role, and capable James Gilbert joins him in the backfield.
Will this game come down to K-State’s offense vs. the Texas defense? Not entirely. In a back-and-forth affair, Sam Ehlinger and Company will have enough to squeak by the Wildcats. Texas will win, but it won’t cover.
Texas 30, Kansas State 27
#19 Iowa @ #14 Wisconsin
Spread: Wisconsin by 9.5
Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz (photo, Larry Brown Sports)
Which team will keep pace with the Gophers in the Big Ten West? That question speaks volumes about the Big Ten. But rather than rail against the Big Ten, let me express my angst toward Vegas. Wisconsin -9.5! How come?
Iowa has one of the most formidable defenses in the country. Few teams have racked up 100 yards+ rushing on the Hawkeyes…and that’s exactly what the Badgers will need to do to win on Saturday.
The best hope for Wisconsin is for Iowa to display its notoriously mediocre offense. That offense is the X-factor in this game.
Wisconsin may not be able to run wild on the Hawkeyes, but they’ll be able to run well enough to win–not by much, mind you, but enough. Badgers will win, but they won’t cover.
Wisconsin 24, Iowa 20
GAME OF THE WEEK (Year?)
#1 LSU @ #3 Alabama
Spread: Alabama by 6
LSU’s Joe Burrow (photo, CBS Sports)
It’s the big one…not just this week, but for all of 2019. The winner will have a direct track to a 1-seed in the Playoff., and the loser…well…odds are they’ll get in, too. It’s the SEC as usual.
Tua will need to be at his best for ‘Bama to beat these Tigers and their dynamic offense. That LSU offense is the difference in a game that’s otherwise even. Both teams run the ball well (Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Najee Harris both get 5.9 yards-per-carry), and these teams are strong defensively, too.
The problem for Bama is that Tua isn’t 100%. That’s why I have a hard time picking the Tide to win, despite Vegas giving the Fighting Saban’s a generous spread.
Tua’s banged-up and Joe Burrow is not. That’s why I’m picking LSU to win outright.
LSU 31, Alabama 27
