Darn Week 9! Going 3-2 last week–after having consecutive weeks of 100% right-picks–dragged my season straight-up score to 80%. Oh, well! It’s another week, another chance to go 5-0.
Virginia Tech @ #18 Notre Dame
Spread: Notre Dame by 17.5
He’s ready for the Irish (photo, Gobbler Country)
Down the drain! That describes Notre Dame’s playoff chances following the Irish’s embarrassing loss at Michigan. The goal now is to recover and finish the season strong.
But let’s face it: there’s a flip side to that coin–letting the season slip away. Which one will it be? The road to that answer begins Saturday in South Bend.
Virginia Tech won’t make for an easy answer, even though the Hokies started the season quietly and have pretty much stayed there. But don’t let lack of headlines fool you. This team is 5-2, largely the product of what Hendon Hooker has done since taking over at QB. The Hokies’ offense is putting up nearly 40 points per game. That’s impressive!
Will they be able to be that productive against Notre Dame? While I think the reinvigorated VT offense will keep the game close, the Hokies will be playing against the desperate, home-standing Irish.
Notre Dame will win but not cover.
Notre Dame 34, Virginia Tech 27
#7 Utah @ Washington Spread: Utah by 3
After losing an early-season match-up to up-and-down USC, Utah has gone on a roll. The Utes are difficult to beat when Zach Moss and Tyler Huntley are both in the line-up. And that Utah ‘D’? Well, it’s terrific, tops in almost every statistical category.
No Moss under his feet (photo, Utah Athletics)
While these Utes just might be a playoff team, any chance of that happening requires winning in Seattle against a hungry Washington team. The Huskies are furious, too, after losing a winnable game at home a few weeks ago against the Oregon Ducks.
The problem with Washington is inconsistency–something Utah is not. But more is involved in this game. Even if Washington gives Utah its best shot, that won’t be enough to win.
Look for Utah to win and cover.
Utah 27, Washington 21
#14 SMU @ #23 Memphis
Spread: Memphis by 6
Is this college football’s GOY? Well, it just might be. Unbeaten SMU will venture into a packed Liberty Bowl to keep their New Year’s-Six dream alive. Memphis, of course, stands in the way.
The Liberty Bowl is sold out for Saturday’s game (photo, football.ballparks.com)
The interesting thing about this game–with the Mustangs getting so much national press coverage and the Tigers getting almost none–is that these teams are even, on paper, at least. Both are top-10 in scoring offense, and both are led by good quarterbacks (Buechele and White, respectively) who have thrown 20 TDs each on the year.
Yes, both teams have prolific offenses, but neither side has faced a team of that caliber. So which defense, if either, will be able to stop the other? And which team will execute that game-winning drive or make that game-winning stop?
The problem for this handicapper is deciding which way to go. In the most challenging game to pick thus far, I’m going with the team that has found a way to keep winning. That’s SMU. How the Mustangs found a way to beat Tulsa in OT is a case in point.
SMU will win on the road…barely…in a shootout.
SMU 42, Memphis 41
#8 Oregon @ #25 USC
Spread: Oregon by 4.5
USC’s Kedon Slovis (photo by Paul Rodriguez)
Oregon continues to win but hasn’t won impressively recently. But never count out these Ducks–not with Justin Herbert, C.J. Verdell, and their top-10 scoring defense.
USC, on the other hand, is a team with potential that’s difficult to handicap. Even with inconsistency, the Trojans have positioned themselves in the PAC-12 race. One reason is Kedon Slovis’s arm. And considering the problems Oregon’s D had with Anthony Gordon and Jacob Eason, respectively, it’s easy for me to see Slovis having success in this game.
Still, I’m going with Oregon in what I think will be a game that will end up being closer than the 4.5-point spread. The Ducks have enough weapons to pull out a win–even if Slovis has a good day, which I think he will.
Ducks will win but not cover.
Oregon 37, USC 34
GAME OF THE WEEK
#10 Georgia vs. #6 Florida
Spread: Georgia by 6.5
This may not be the GOY nationally, but it’s the GOY in the SEC East, for sure. CFP hopes are in the balance, too.
The ‘World’s Largest Cocktail Party’ is scheduled for Saturday in Gainesville (photo, Georgia Bulldogs)
Georgia’s is the odds-on favorite in both regards, but it’s with an asterisk. Yes, UGA’s defense has been consistently excellent, but its offense has been anything but that. Jake Fromm hasn’t looked like himself recently, and part of that is due to an inexperienced receiving corps. That said, D’Andre Swift has shown up in every game that he has played.
Swift is important, but he can’t carry the Bulldogs. The reason? Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard are only ‘probable’ for this game, and their status throws a wrench into UGA’s running game. Combine that reality with the Gators’ reliable secondary, and that outcome puts Florida in a good position.
On offense, UF has been well-serviced by Kyle Trask’s play. At issue is whether the Gators will be able to run the ball. Dameon Pierce is questionable for the game, and that’s not good news. If he’s not 100%, then how will Florida be able to run against a top-5 rush defense?
One thing about this game isn’t mysterious: both teams have offensive issues but play with elite defenses. The mystery is this: Given that, who has the advantage? In a difficult call, I’m going with Florida, mainly because the Gators are getting back several key players on defense.
I’m going against Vegas. Florida wins straight-up in a barn-burner.
Florida 28, Georgia 24
