Ravens Week 5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers: Opponent Analysis & Game Prediction

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The Ravens’ defense has a crisis of confidence, while Monday’s win removed a big monkey from Pittsburgh’s back. Steelers prevail as Ravens’ search for answers continues. 


WHAT: Week Five at Pittsburgh Steelers
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, October 6
WHERE: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh (68,400)
RECORDS: Ravens, 2-2; Steelers, 1-3
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Steelers lead, 25-21, and have won four of the last five overall meetings; in Pittsburgh, the Steelers lead, 14-9, and have won four of their last six home games against Baltimore.
TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, booth; Evan Washburn, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Jarret Johnson, booth)
REFEREE: Walt Anderson

About the Steelers

Pittsburgh is the opponent the Ravens have played more than any other in Baltimore’s 23-plus-season history. This Sunday’s game will mark the 47th regular-season game and the 51st-lifetime meeting between the teams (including postseason).The Ravens have played Cincinnati 46 times and Cleveland 41 times. When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they met the Steelers 11 times (including postseason) with Pittsburgh winning eight, including a 4-2 record in Baltimore and a 4-1 mark in Pittsburgh.

Historically, the Steelers franchise has had a contrasting identity. From 1933-1971, Pittsburgh had only eight winning seasons out of 39 with only one playoff appearance. Since then, it has added 30 playoff appearances with 23 division crowns, the league’s third-most. Since the AFC North was established in 2002, the Steelers have the most titles (eight). Baltimore has five, Cincinnati four, and Cleveland none.

Pittsburgh’s eight Super Bowl appearances are tied for the second-most all-time with Dallas and Denver–two behind record-holder New England. The Steelers’ six Super Bowl championships are tied with New England for the most, and it’s one better than the five each won by Dallas and San Francisco. Pittsburgh has made 16 appearances in the conference title game, an AFC record, and it’s tied with Dallas for third-most all-time behind the New York Giants (19) and Green Bay (17).

With the return match slated for Baltimore on the final regular-season Sunday (Week 17), Sunday’s game marks the third time in the last five years that the first game will be played in Pittsburgh. It also means there will be no repeat of last year’s early wrap-up. Last year, the two teams were done in October–the fifth-earliest date that the two-game season series ended.

A total of 17 of the teams’ 46 regular-season meetings have been shown in prime time. The Ravens have registered three two-game season sweeps of Pittsburgh (’06, ’11, ’15), while the Steelers have five sweeps (’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ‘17). There have been 15 splits (including last year, when each team won on the other’s home field), and Pittsburgh has won three of four postseason meetings.

Heinz Field was built near the site of the Steelers’ former home, Three Rivers Stadium. That place was imploded and demolished shortly after the 2000 season. Adding to the luster of the rivalry is the fact that the Ravens won in their last game at Three Rivers, and then went on to become the first visiting team to win at Heinz Field. In fact, the Ravens were the first visitors to win at five stadiums currently in use around the league: Pittsburgh, Denver, Tennessee, Washington, and New York (MetLife Stadium).

A large number of close games have enriched the history of this rivalry. The Ravens and Steelers have played to one-score margins in 17 of their last 22 regular-season meetings, which dates back to December 2007. Also, 13 of the last 22 regular-season meetings between these two teams have been decided by three or fewer points. In the last 28 meetings before this season, the Ravens and Steelers have 14 wins each. Baltimore holds a slim 15-point edge (588-573).

Speaking of points, they have been at a premium for the Steelers, likely because of the team’s forced quarterback change. Pittsburgh has only scored six first-quarter points all year, including none in its first win last week. But what has helped is that the Steelers have allowed only ten points in the opening period over the first four games. The real problem has been the third quarter, where Pittsburgh is being outscored, 38-27.

This year’s Steelers got off to an 0-3 start, with two of those games on the road against two teams that got off to undefeated starts, New England and San Francisco. The game with Baltimore on Sunday is the second of two straight home games. Pittsburgh has begun a stretch of five home contests in a six-game span, with the bye week included in that time frame. Pittsburgh ends the season with five road games in seven weeks–the last game in Baltimore.

For most of last season, the Steelers led the NFL in penalties and penalty yards. Despite their poor record, they are off to a much cleaner start this year with 21 penalties, the league’s second-fewest. Only Carolina and Indianapolis have less (20 each). They do have four pass-interference calls, tied with Tampa Bay for second-most in the league behind Tennessee’s five. Pittsburgh has just two false-start penalties and two holding calls. Only two players have more than one penalty.

The Steelers are not only committing fewer penalties, but they are also taking better care of the football and forcing turnovers this year. The result is a plus-4 turnover ratio through four games, tied for the league’s third-best–and the best number by any Ravens’ opponent so far. Pittsburgh’s nine total takeaways are tied with Tampa Bay for the league’s second-most behind New England (ten). The Steelers’ six fumble recoveries (from eight forced fumbles) are the league’s most. They have only lost two fumbles themselves and, despite having two different starting quarterbacks at this early juncture of the season, have thrown just three total interceptions.

Through four games, the Steelers are ranked 29th (fourth-worst) in total offense (29th rushing at 64.5 yards per game, 23rd passing, tied for 23rd scoring at 19 points per game). The Steelers have the league’s third-worst third-down percentage (27.2) and third-worst possession average at just over 26 minutes per game (Baltimore ranks first at just over 35 minutes). Defensively, Pittsburgh is ranked 19th overall (22nd vs. rush, 19th vs. pass, 13th scoring). Pittsburgh is allowing third-down conversions at a 42.3 percent pace, the league’s tenth-worst. But in the red zone, it is allowing touchdowns just 35.7 percent of the time, tied for third-best.

Head coach Mike Tomlin, now in his 13th season at the helm but still relatively young at 47, is the 16th head coach in Steelers’ franchise history. But he’s only the third since 1969 (Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher). Tomlin has a regular-season record of 126-69-1 (.645), the second-best winning percentage among active coaches (Bill Belichick), but a rather mediocre playoff mark of 8-7. He reached the playoffs four times in his first five seasons (and in eight of his 12 years overall) and became the youngest head coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl (36). Previously, Tomlin coached defensive backs at Cincinnati and Tampa Bay before becoming Minnesota’s defensive coordinator.

In 2004, starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger made his debut in Baltimore in 2004, when he replaced Tommy Maddox. He is 13-10 lifetime against the Ravens, but won’t play this week due to an elbow injury. Filling in for him is Mason Rudolph, a 6-foot-5, 235-pound South Carolina native taken in the third round of the 2018 draft (76th overall) from Oklahoma State. In his senior year, Rudolph won the Sammy Baugh and Johnny Unitas Golden Arm awards and was a second-team All-America pick. He didn’t play last year, but in two games this year (one start), Rudolph is completing 67.6 percent of his passes with six touchdowns, two interceptions, two sacks, and a 103.2 passer rating. Against Cincinnati last week, Rudolph completed 24 of 28 passes with two touchdowns and a 124.6 passer rating.

In the wake of workhorse back Le’ Veon Bell’s departure, University of Pittsburgh product James Conner has taken over the main ball-carrying role. He is only averaging 3.2 yards-per-carry so far with no rush longer than 21 yards, Last season, he posted three straight 100-yard games with a stellar 146-yard effort against Cleveland included in that stretch. Conner is backed up by second-year back Jaylen Samuels, a 2018 fifth-round pick (165th overall) from North Carolina State, who has a rushing score this year. Samuels played in 14 games (three starts) last year and was the Pepsi Rookie of the Week in Week 15. He has also thrown three passes this year, completing all three. Veteran fullback Roosevelt Nix was inactive last week.

With the tumultuous departure of top receiver Antonio Brown, Conner leads the Steelers in receiving with 19 receptions, an eight-yard average, and one touchdown. But third-year USC alum Juju Smith-Schuster will inevitably overtake Conner. The wideout already has 17 catches, a 15-yard average, and one score. Smith-Schuster was voted the team’s Most Valuable Player last year and was a Pro Bowl alternate. Diontae Johnson, a third-round rookie (66th overall) from Toledo, has 13 catches and two scores (77 yards, six catches vs. Cincinnati), but he did fumble in the win over Cincinnati last week. Tight end Vance Johnson has ten catches but was inactive last week, and Pittsburgh has traded for Seattle’s Nick Vannett. Second-year wideout James Washington is off to a slow start, but his value is the connection as a receiver to Rudolph at Oklahoma State.

The Steelers’ offensive line has allowed only four quarterback sacks through the season’s first four games and has, for now, cleaned up its previous penalty problems. The line allowed only 24 sacks last year, fourth-fewest in the league. Pennsylvania native Matt Feiler is the only new face on a cohesive line, but he did fill in at right tackle last year for Marcus Gilbert and started ten games. Right guard David DeCastro, the team’s 2012 first-round pick, has made the last four Pro Bowls and is a two-time All-Pro. Left guard Ramon Foster went undrafted, but he is in his tenth year as a starter. Center Maurkice Pouncey hasn’t missed a game since 2015 and left tackle Alejandro Villanueva is an Army veteran who is tough and dependable.

The Steelers’ defensive line is anchored by fourth-year nose tackle Javon Hargrave, who might be listed as the starter in the middle of the defensive line, but he can be moved around in sub-packages as well. The real playmakers up front are veterans Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt, recipient of a big offseason contract renewal before last season. Heyward (21 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is one of the best pass-rushing down linemen in the league, He had 12 sacks in 2017 and, in his last six games against the Ravens, has three sacks, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. Tuitt, with a team-high 3.5 of the team’s 14 sacks, seems better suited to the Steelers’ new one-gap style, a more aggressive scheme that puts more pressure on quarterbacks.

Outside linebacker TJ Watt (2.5 sacks), brother of Houston defensive end JJ Watt, is part of a second-level corps that is attempting to make more plays. The Steelers have recovered a league-high six fumbles this year, and Watt has two of those, along with 1.5 sacks last week. On the other side is Bud Dupree (two sacks), a draft pick out of Kentucky, who flies to the ball and ran back an interception for a score against Tampa Bay last year.

The inside lost its leader when Ryan Shazier (paralysis) had to retire. But Vince Williams surprised observers in 2017 with eight sacks. First-round rookie Devin Bush, taken at No. 10 after the Steelers moved up ten spots to get him, already has a pair of fumble recoveries, one sack, and a team-high 24 solo tackles. His 37 total stops lead all rookies. Bush, who had nine tackles (three for loss) last week, is still listed as a backup behind Mark Barron (17 solo tackles).

Pittsburgh has tried desperately to revamp a leaky secondary. It hit the free-agent market last spring to bring in former Kansas City cornerback Steven Nelson, who starts opposite veteran and Prince Georges County native Joe Haden. Nelson’s acquisition bumped 2016 first-rounder Artie Burns to a backup role. In the safety spots, Morgan Burnett departed for the Cleveland Browns. The team’s 2018 first-round pick, Virginia Tech’s Terrell Edmunds (21 solo stops, second on the team), is the starter at strong safety. At free safety, Pittsburgh made an in-season trade to bring in disgruntled Miami Dolphins’ draftee Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was memorably burned for a long touchdown in Week One by Ravens receiver Marquise Brown.

The Steelers’ special-teams unit made a very underrated free-agent pickup. It acquired a second-year returner and former Dallas Cowboy draft pick Ryan Switzer, who is also the team’s slot receiver. He is off to a slow start this year with only two punt runbacks, six fair catches, and two kick returns. The kick-coverage team slumped towards the end of last year, but it is off to a fine start, allowing only 18 yards per return. Punt coverage has slipped, though. The unit is yielding almost 11 yards per runback.

Veteran placekicker Chris Boswell, the AFC’s Pro Bowl kicker two seasons ago, fell victim to last year’s leaguewide kicking slump. But Boswell is off to a solid start this year. He is 7-for-7 on both field goals and extra points. Boswell missed three extra points last season. Boswell is the Steelers’ all-time leading scorer and set team records in 2017 for field goals and points. Fifth-year punter Jordan Berry has just two touchbacks on 18 punts, but he’s the victim of teammates’ poor punt coverage. He is netting 40 yards per kick while grossing over 48.

Prediction

It’s tough to predict who will win in what is usually a close matchup between these old division rivals. The difference could be as simple as making plays on defense, which both clubs haven’t done well in recent years. But so far this season, Pittsburgh has done a better job, forcing eight fumbles and recovering six, which is a league-high. The Steelers will likely pressure Lamar Jackson to see if they can get him to return to his fumble-prone ways of 2018.

The good news for the Ravens is that Pittsburgh is on a short week. The bad news for the Ravens is that they are experiencing a crisis of confidence, especially on defense.

Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 23

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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