The Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers came into the season with big questions and high expectations. Now they face each other. How do they match up? Who’ll come out on top?
The Browns stockpiled offensive talent, namely Odell Beckham Jr., and Cleveland quickly became the NFL’s shiny new toy. Some fans had this team going to the Super Bowl, but they started the season with a big loss–a home beatdown by the lowly Titans in Week 1. But these Browns rebounded with a big and unexpected smackdown of the Ravens on the road in Week 4. So which team are they?
Jimmy’s healthy (photo, WEEI.com)
The Niners, on the other hand, started the season with a finally-healthy Jimmy G.. The team beefed up its defensive line, too. Still, some experts didn’t expect the 49ers to win three games all season. They’ve done that already, going into Week 5 at 3-0.
Why? It’s because San Francisco is playing ‘big boy football’ in all three phases of the game. Yes, some might argue that the wins have come against losing teams, but you can only play the teams on your schedule.
So how do these teams match up?
For starters, let’s look at where the 49ers stand on a variety of NFL categories.
4th, total offense – 421 YPG
2nd, team rushing yards – 175 YPG
3rd, total defense – 283 YPG
5th, against the run – 75 YPG
3rd, defensive points allowed – 18 PPG
Penalties – 21 on the season.
Ok! Stats say this team is solid on both sides of the ball. They can run the ball successfully and stop the opposing team dead. But something else pops up in the numbers. The Niners don’t beat themselves.
The one major weakness I see is that the 49ers have a tendency to turn over the ball. San Fran had five turnovers against the Steelers in Week 3 but still won the game with a late drive and strong defense.
Where do the Browns stand? This is a middle-of-the-road team. Most stats fall somewhere in the middle of the NFL pack.
Still, these Browns are 2-2 on the year and feel dangerous after whipping Baltimore. Interestingly, Cleveland’s best offensive weapon thus far hasn’t been OBJ, Jarvis Landry, or even Baker Mayfield. It has been Nick Chubb. He single-handedly beat the Ravens last week with three touchdowns and 165 yards on the ground. That performance lifted Chubb to 4th place on the NFL rushing list with 398 yards total.
But I just don’t see Nick Chubb having his way with a Niners’ defense that’s ranked 3rd in total defense and has allowed opposing runners only 75 yards on average. If I’m right, then that means Mayfield will have to win this game.
Mayfield will need his O-line to step up against the 49’ers (photo, Sporting News)
Will Mayfield be able to handle the pressure of the 49ers front seven and complete accurate throws downfield? Well, football purists know that games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage. Yes, both teams will throw the ball, and there I give the Browns the advantage. I’m just not convinced that Mayfield’s O-line can protect him, though. Yes, he may be able to find gaps in the defense–if he gets protection. The problem? Mayfield’s line hasn’t done that consistently this year. He has been running for his life in and out of the pocket.
None of that bodes well against these West Coast guys. The 49ers have nine sacks this year, proving they can penetrate the line and get to the quarterback. Conversely, the 49ers have only allowed two sacks thus far.
To win Monday night, the Browns will need to hit short, timely passes. If Chubb is held in check–which I predict he will–then Mayfield will need to play one of the best games of his career. And to do that, he’s O-line will have to rise to levels it hasn’t seen this year.
On the other side of the field, the 49ers’ task is much simpler: just stick to the script! Use three running backs to keep fresh legs in the game. I look for Matt Breida to have a great game in rushing and receiving out of the backfield.
Unless Mayfield has the game of his life, I expect the vastly underrated 49ers to snatch a few turnovers and run the ball right up the gut of the Browns’ defense.
San Francisco 26, Cleveland 18
