5-0 in Week 8 brings my straight-up picks (season’s percentage) to 83%. But I’m only about 50/50 ATS. I sharpened that pencil of mine, and here’s what’s in store for Week 9.
#14 Wisconsin @ #2 Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State by 14.5
Yes, Illinois beat Wisconsin last Saturday. But that doesn’t mean UW-OSU is no longer a pivotal matchup in the Big Ten race. It is!
Courtesy: The Sporting News
Wisconsin is still an excellent team. Meanwhile, Ohio State is, well, loaded. The offense has looked unstoppable at times, and the Chase Young-led defense is arguably the country’s best.
But make no mistake about this: last week’s loss makes this desperation time for the Badgers. UW will do a much better job protecting the ball, and you can bet on Jonathan Taylor doing his part.
BUT … Ohio State just has too much for Wisconsin to have a chance. That said, I don’t see the Buckeyes covering a whopping 14.5 spread.
Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 20
#6 Penn State @ Michigan State
Spread: Penn State by 6.5
Michigan last week, Michigan State this week. That’s what the PSU schedule says. After getting that big home win against the Wolverines last week, the Lions head west to face the Spartans in East Lansing on Saturday. It seems like an easier task than last week–until you check the record books. PSU hasn’t beaten Sparty on the road since 2009.
Sparty won’t sustain its home winning streak against PSU (photo, Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports)
Is PSU up to the task this time? Oddsmakers say yes, but James Franklin is concerned. One reason is the Lions’ offensive productivity. Penn State has been outgained in its last two wins, including by a wide margin last week (417 to 283 yards).
The good news is that Michigan State has sputtered this year offensively, too. The only way Penn State can get outgained this week is if MSU QB Brian Lewerke steps up for the Spartans. Will he?
Then there’s Sparty’s D. At one time a national leader, MSU’s stop troops have been gashed three games in a row–at home against IU and on the road versus OSU and Wisconsin. Ouch! But MSU is still capable of containing PSU’s spotty offense–especially its questionable running game. Will they, though?
MSU will come up short, and Penn State will escape East Lansing … barely.
Penn State 24, Michigan State 21
#17 Texas @ TCU
Spread: Texas by 1.5
Fumble! That word describes Texas football during conference play. The Longhorns have fumbled away what started out to be a very good season. Each game brings more doubts about this team. And why not? Last week, Texas nearly lost to Kansas. Kansas!
Herman has been scratching his head (photo, UT Athletics)
The big problem is the defense. UT’s pass defense has been thrown a lot of shade this season, and the rush defense is no great shakes, either. In the last two contests, UT has surrendered over 250 yards on the ground each game.
The best news for Texas is that they’re playing TCU, a club with a slew of its problems. Most prominently, the Frogs haven’t fared well against dual-threat quarterbacks, and it’s doubtful they’ll be able to stop Sam Ehlinger much, if at all. On the other side of the ball, TCU doesn’t have enough firepower to stay with Texas.
Bottom line? UT gets a scare for the second week in a row, but the ‘Horns will put it away late to win and cover.
Texas 38, TCU 28
#9 Notre Dame @ #19 Michigan
Spread: PK
This classic rivalry comes at a pivotal time for both teams. For ND, it’s staying in contention for a slot in the CFP. For Michigan, it’s about whether Jim Harbaugh can ‘Win a Big One’–not for the Gipper, but himself.
Jim Harbaugh needs a big-time win (photo ESPN)
The good news for ND is that it has overcome what I saw earlier in the season as a one-dimensional offense. Jafar Armstrong has helped solve that problem. With him on the field, the Irish are doing a better job of ball-possession.
Michigan’s offense, on the other hand, is very difficult to gauge. It showed signs of life in the second half against Penn State, and momentum may carry over into the ND game. The question is whether UM’s offense can perform well for an entire game.
In what could be a surprise to many, I think both offenses will get off to a high-scoring first half. Then, in the battle of quarterbacks, Ian Book will outduel Shae Patterson, and Notre Dame will close it out late.
Notre Dame 34, Michigan 30
GAME OF THE WEEK
#8 Auburn @ #1 LSU
Spread: LSU by 10.5
LSU is now my #1 team (largely because of Tua Tagovailoa’s injury), and that standing comes just in time for the Tigers’ top-10 showdown with Auburn.
Ed and his Tigers are on a roll (photo, LSU Athletics)
Through the air, LSU’s offense is putting up historic numbers. No team has been able to stop Joe Burrow and his exceptional corps of receivers, which gains even more strength with Terrace Marshall Jr.’s return.
But don’t count out Auburn! The Tigers’ defensive line could give Burrow problems. The defense won’t win this game for AU, though, unless the offense scores around 40 points. And I don’t see that happening. Why? LSU has done well stopping the run, and I don’t see Bo Nix making enough big plays to win the game for Auburn.
LSU will take care of business against yet another good SEC defense. They’ll cover, too.
LSU 38, Auburn 27
