I was a perfect 5-0 straight-up last week, which upped my season tally to 81%. But my ATS record slipped to 47%. It’s obvious where I have work to do. So let’s get started!
#8 Florida @ South Carolina
Spread: Florida by 5
USC players celebrate the huge win at UGA (photo, WSYX)
Stunner! That’s the word to describe what happened in college football last week. South Carolina beat UGA in Athens. Yowza!
But there’s no rest for these Gamecocks. That’s because they get 8th-ranked Florida at home this Saturday.
Despite Florida’s loss to LSU, the Gators’ defense remains solid–especially with C.J. Henderson back from injury. Defense is also a watchword for USC. It was the key to last week’s win. The ‘D’ forced usually-perfect Jake Fromm to throw three INTs–his most-ever in a game.
Turnovers made the difference in that game because the ‘Cocks were otherwise dominated statistically. That’s a bad sign because I see TOs as episodic, not something you can count on to win week-after-week. Yes, the home-field advantage will help USC stay with the Gators, but Florida will eventually impose its will. Florida wins and covers.
Florida 27, South Carolina 20
Temple @ #19 SMU
Spread: SMU by 7.5
For my money, SMU is the best story of the college football season. Give Sonny Dykes credit for reviving a program that has been out of the limelight since the 1980s.
But with success, challenges await, and there may be no more significant challenge for the Mustangs than this week’s game against the Owls. Temple–a reliable team with a stingy defense–figures out ways to win, save for that inexplicable loss on the road to Buffalo. But Temple bounced back a few weeks later to beat a solid Memphis squad.
I expect Temple’s ‘D’ to give SMU trouble early, and the Mustangs may fall behind, just as they did against Tulsa. But the Mustangs have too many weapons to be contained for an entire game. The one-two punch of Buechele and Jones is unlike anything the Owls have faced. Add in the home crowd advantage, and that will be enough for the Mustangs to squeak by in this one.
SMU 38, Temple 35
#10 Oregon @ #24 Washington
Spread: Oregon by 3
These teams played an OT classic last year with the Ducks winning, 30-27. Fans are expecting another exciting contest this time around. And why not?
Oregon’s success comes from being well-rounded, The Ducks are literally unstoppable when all of their pieces are in sync.
Washington has a high ceiling, too, but the Huskies just haven’t been consistent. They managed to put up 51 against Arizona last week but got only 13 the week before in a loss at Stanford. The defense, while good, isn’t great by UW standards.
In my book, Oregon’s consistency gives the Ducks the edge. UO will come out on top–and it will cover–in what should be a physical and low-scoring affair.
Oregon 24, Washington 20
#17 Arizona State @ #13 Utah
Spread: Utah by 13.5
Here’s another Top 25 match-up in the Pac-12. I expect it to be just as good and exciting as the UW-UO matchup.
UTes; Tyler Huntley against BYU earlier this year (photo, Salt Lake Trib)
Zack Moss’ return last week worked wonders for the Utah offense, and Tyler Huntley hasn’t missed a beat with his 3rd-best completion percentage. The defense is just as impressive, allowing only 13 points per game. Bottom line? The Utes are scary when both units are in full-throttle.
So how can ASU keep up? Well, the Sun Devils have a balanced team, too. They can slow down Moss, and freshman QB Jayden Daniels is good and getting better. Witness that 4-touchdown effort he had against Washington State last week.
While I believe that Utah is the better overall team and it’s playing at home, I also think the spread is way too generous. ASU has been able to stay in every game, winning several with last-minute drives. I say the Utes will win, but not cover, in what should be a tight game.
Utah 34, Arizona State 28
GAME OF THE WEEK
#16 Michigan @ #7 Penn State
Spread: Penn State by 9
A ranked matchup. A whiteout. A game at Happy Valley. M-I-C-H-I-G-A-N is in town! What more do I need to say? It’s my GOTW!
Sean Clifford (photo, Penn State Athletics)
Few defenses are more impressive than Penn State’s. With the #2 team in scoring defense, this team hasn’t given up 14 points against any opponent. And QB Sean Clifford, who has been great at protecting the football, is another reason why the Lions are undefeated at 6-0.
While Penn State’s defense has stood out, Michigan’s has not. Yes, UM’s ‘D’ has shown flashes of greatness–as it did against Iowa when they held the Hawkeyes to three points. But the defense has also broken down–as it did against Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin. Last week’s effort against Illinois–when the Illini went on a 25-0 run–tells me that you can’t predict which Michigan will show up–the ‘good’ Wolves or the ‘bad’ ones. Besides, the offense is nothing to write home about. QB Shea Patterson hasn’t stood out.
Michigan was curb-stomped the last time it paid a visit to a ranked team (Wisconsin). Harbaugh’s record of 1-6 against ranked teams on the road is, well, bad. Those are two of the many reasons why I pick PSU to win and cover.
Penn State 31, Michigan 13
