After Week 6, I’m 77% straight-up and 52% ATS. This week I’ll risk both by taking on some of the toughest calls of the weekend.
#6 Oklahoma vs. #11 Texas
Spread: Oklahoma by 10.5
OU’s Jalen Hurts (photo, OU Daily)
An always exciting rivalry game will be special this time around as Heisman candidates Jalen Hurts and Sam Ehlinger lead prolific offenses. But in a head-to-head comparison, Hurts has the advantage. He’s the national leader in passing efficiency. What’s more, the Sooners’ defense has improved notably in 2019. OU has the country’s 5th-best 3rd-down defense–a critical stat in this game with Ehlinger at the controls.
And Ehlinger is Texas’ only hope. To win, he’ll need to improve on the 386 yards and five touchdowns he had last year against OU. The reason? The Longhorns struggle in pass defense. That’s a big problem when you’re up against Hurts.
Rivalry aside, Oklahoma has the advantage. Hurts will outduel Ehlinger, and the Sooners will cover.
Oklahoma 42, Texas 30
Michigan State @ #8 Wisconsin
Spread: Wisconsin by 10.5
Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor (photo, SI)
These teams have played classic games over the years, and both squads sport great defenses this year. But the Badgers have one thing the Spartans don’t–Jonathan Taylor. The run-you-over/run-by-you star has worn down and torn apart every defense he has faced this year. I’m also impressed by a player few knew before the season began–Jack Coan, who has become the Badgers’ most reliable QB since Russell Wilson.
But what makes Wisconsin really special is that it’s strong on both sides of the ball. The Badgers’ ‘D’ leads the country in total defense and passing yards allowed.
What does it all mean for Sparty? To have any chance, MSU’s defense is going to have to play its best game of the year, replicating what it did in the first quarter against OSU last week for a full four quarters on the road. MSU is capable of keeping Taylor under 150 yards, but the question is whether State can do it.
No matter how well MSU’s defense performs, to win Michigan State has to put points on the board. I think it’s unlikely Lewerke and crew will be able to solve Wisconsin’s dominant defense. So look for State to have many 3-and-outs as Taylor and Coan wear down that Green and White defense.
Look for the Spartans to do just enough to keep the Badgers from covering.
Wisconsin 24, Michigan State 14
#1 Alabama @ #23 Texas A&M
Spread: Alabama by 17
‘D’ is giving Saban headaches (photo, profootballtalk.nbcsports.com)
Alabama hasn’t been tested this year, but Jimbo Fisher’s squad provides an interesting challenge. Why? The Tide gave up a lot of yards–467.5, to be specific–in its first two conference games. That’s uncharacteristic and unimpressive for a Nick Saban-coached team.
But ‘Bama will now face a defensive test, and the Aggies could force a lot of 3rd-down stops. The real challenge for TAMU is, well, TAMU’s offense. Kellen Mond has a running game that doesn’t do much running (97th in the nation). That, I think, will be the difference in this game.
Yes, the game will be played in Aggieland, but it should turn out to be business as usual for ‘Bama. Tua will have his way, and the Tide will cover.
Alabama 44, Texas A&M 21
#9 Penn State @ #18 Iowa
Spread: Penn State by 3.5
Happy days have returned to State College because Penn State is rolling again. But this week PSU makes that dreaded trip to the place where many past Big Ten contenders are buried–Kinnick Stadium.
Lions roar into Kinnick (photo, Sportslogos.net)
The good news is that PSU brings balance to Iowa City. Sean Clifford leads the 5th-best scoring offense, and State is allowing only 7.4 points per game. The bad news is that the Hawkeyes are doing what the Hawkeyes often do–keep teams from scoring. With the third-best scoring defense nationally, PSU has not played a defense of this caliber.
In a game that will feature D against D, the stop troops are just too strong for this game to be anything other than a low-scoring affair. The question is: Who will have more offense? I say it will be the Lions, but I don’t expect them to cover.
Penn State 17, Iowa 14
GAME OF THE WEEK
#7 Florida @ #5 LSU
Spread: LSU by 13.5
If a game between two Top 10 teams isn’t enough for you, then take pleasure in a top offense going up against a top defense.
LSU’s Joe Burrow (photo, CBS Sports)
Despite injuries, Florida’s defense has imposed its will. A Jabari Zuniga-less defense held down Auburn to under 270 yards. Impressive! But how long can it last? C.J. Henderson is banged up and he may join Zuniga on the sidelines this week.
Those two are needed to stop LSU’s prolific passing attack. Joe Burrow tops the lists in every passing-related statistic, largely because the Tigers have a dangerous set of receivers. It’s hard to find a passing attack better than LSU’s–as secondaries will attest.
But Florida has a solid secondary that should make Burrow uncomfortable when he drops back. But will it be enough? Even if it is, can UFL score enough to win?
The Gators should be able to stay within striking distance–at least for a while–but heaven help any team that ventures into Baton Rouge at night to face that Tiger Stadium crowd when LSU has a team like it does this year.
It will be close, but no cigar, for the Gators. Tigers will win, but not cover.
LSU 34, Florida 24
