After Week 5, my straight-up record improved to 80% (21-5), but my ATS record dropped to .500 (13-13). My goal this week is to do better ATS. Let’s see if I can.
#14 Iowa @ #18 Michigan
Spread: Michigan by 3
Jim Harbaugh needs a win (photo, ESPN)
If you like defense, consider tuning in to this game. Iowa’s ‘D’–a unit that has allowed less than 9 points per game–is also in the Top 20 nationally in both rushing and passing yards allowed. The Wolverines are not far behind with one of the nation’s best passing defenses.
In a game with stout defenses, the safe bet is to go with the home team. But my main concern is whether the Wolverines–one of the worst teams in running the ball–can move the sticks against Iowa. If not, that will force UM into becoming a one-dimensional team.
The game may come down to Nate Stanley’s skills. I think he’ll come through, and the Hawkeyes will prevail narrowly.
Iowa 21, Michigan 20
Baylor @ Kansas State
Spread: Kansas State by 1.5
I don’t often analyze a game between unranked teams, but I’m intrigued by the spread and (disclosure here) I go to Baylor.
Baylor’s Charlier Brewer (photo, Athlon)
Baylor’s 4-0 start, surprising to many, is a combo of a potent offense and sound defense. With talented and experienced signal-caller Charlie Brewer, a solid John Lovett-led rushing attack, and a much-improved defense (yet to give up 21+ points), the Bears have become a Big XII threat.
But wait! KSU is dangerous, too. The well-rounded ‘Cats have Skylar Thompson at the controls. But KSU showed a crack in last week’s game against Oklahoma State. Chuba Hubbard gashed the defense for 296 yards.
Baylor is also dangerous on the ground–not only with Lovett but with others, including Brewer. I’ll take the Bears in what could end up to be a close game.
Baylor 31, Kansas State 28
#24 Michigan State @ #2 Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State by 20
Good Lord, look at that spread! But when you consider how dominant Ohio State has been this season, why not 20 points?
OSU’s Brian Day (photo, USAToday)
But as OSU knows all too well (Sparty beat Urban Meyer more than any other Big 10 team), you can’t underestimate MSU. Again with a national-class defense, Gang Green is giving up only 55 yards-a-game on the ground. What’s more, Brian Lewerke seems to be his 2017 self (almost 400 yards of total offense last week against IU).
But the Spartans will need that kind of defense and offensive productivity–and a lot more–to upset the Buckeyes at the Horseshoe. Ohio State is arguably the country’s best team this season on both sides of the ball. A top-4 club in scoring offense and scoring defense, Justin Fields has been nearly perfect, and J.K. Dobbins is better than anyone expected.
While I’d love to be wrong, I don’t see hope for Sparty on Saturday. Ohio State will stay unbeaten–and cover the spread while they’re at it.
Ohio State 38, Michigan State 14
California @ #13 Oregon
Spread: Oregon by 17.5
UO’s Justin Herbert (photo, UO Athletics)
Cal’s perfect season ended last week–and unexpectedly so–at home against Arizona State. Things don’t get any easier this week with a travel game on tap in Eugene with Justin Herbert. It’s a night game, too. Yikes!
The loss of Chase Garbers hurts Cal’s already slim chances, but the defense gives the Bears some hope. A reliable and experienced front–led by the nation’s leading tackler, Evan Weaver–should at least bother Herbert. But without Garbers, Herbert is likely to wear down Cal’s defense.
In this game, there’s a simple conclusion: barring catastrophe, the Ducks will run over Cal.
Oregon 34, California 13
GAME OF THE WEEK
#7 Auburn @ #10 Florida
Spread: Auburn by 3.5
This is the first meeting in eight years between Florida and Auburn. It comes at a pivotal time, too, as both teams are undefeated, ranked in the top 10, and vying for CFP slots. The 2019 edition of this rivalry will be a clash between outstanding defenses and underrated quarterbacks.
Will JaTarvious Whitlow be the X-factor in this game? (photo, 247Sports)
Auburn’s defensive line is one of the best in the country. Derrick Brown is only one of many NFL prospects on AU’s stop unit. On offense, Frosh Bo Nix has settled in for the Tigers. Having Seth Williams as a receiver helps.
Florida isn’t the Florida we’ve seen over the past few years. The Gators are good again, and having CJ Henderson and Jabari Zuniga back for this game helps UF’s chances. Florida’s secondary will be the best Nix has faced to date, and Kyle Trask looks more efficient as the weeks go by.
What strikes me about this game is how much the defenses (Auburn’s stout D-line and Florida’s top-tier secondary) with likely affect the opposing quarterback. That’s why I think the running game will decide this game. I trust Auburn’s rushing attack more than I do Florida’s. Why? He’s called JaTarvious Whitlow. I’ll take Auburn in a nail-biter.
Auburn 27, Florida 24
