The Ravens aren’t a finished product at this point, but Miami isn’t a very good team. Baltimore (-7) should prevail easily.
WHAT: Week One at Miami Dolphins
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, September 8
WHERE: Hard Rock Stadium; Miami Gardens, Fla. (65,326)
2018 RECORDS: Ravens, 10-6, AFC North champions; Dolphins, 7-9, second in AFC East
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 7-6. The Ravens have won two straight and six of the last seven meetings. In Miami, the Ravens are 3-5, including two overtime losses.
TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Andrew Catalon, James Lofton, booth; Jay Feely, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Jarret Johnson, booth)
REFEREE: Jerome Boger
About the Dolphins
—The Miami Dolphins, begin their 54th season. The team started as an American Football League expansion franchise in 1966, owned by lawyer Joe Robbie and entertainer Danny Thomas. When the AFL began in 1960, Ralph Wilson wanted to establish his AFL team in Miami but opted for Buffalo instead.
—The Dolphins have made the playoffs once this decade (2016), but in team history, they have 23 postseason appearances, the 14th-most among current franchises. The team has 13 division titles, ten wild-card appearances, and an overall postseason record of 20-21. They are 5-2 in the AFC Championship Game and 2-3 in the Super Bowl, winning Super Bowl 7 over Washington – capping the NFL’s only modern-day undefeated season – and Super Bowl 8 over Minnesota. However, the Dolphins haven’t appeared in a Super Bowl since losing to San Francisco in Super Bowl 19.
—When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, that team played the Dolphins 29 times, including once in the AFC title game, because both were members of the AFC East from 1970-1983. The Dolphins won 20 of the 29 meetings, including the 1971 conference championship that put Miami into Super Bowl 6 and denied the Colts a chance at back-to-back championships. Before the Colts moved out of Baltimore, the Dolphins won the last seven meetings and 12 of the final 13 games between the two.
—Since the Ravens came into the league, they have lost only once at home to the Dolphins, a 1997 game at Memorial Stadium that featured Dan Marino’s second appearance on 33rd Street. He played there as a rookie in 1983. The Dolphins have never won at M&T Bank Stadium since it opened in 1998.
–The Dolphins abandoned their longtime home at the Orange Bowl and moved into what is now Hard Rock Stadium in 1987. The stadium has had eight different names due to shifting corporate naming-rights deals. The Orange Bowl and Hard Rock have each hosted five Super Bowls; the ten hosted in Miami is tied with New Orleans for the most. Miami will host its record 11th Super Bowl at the end of the current season, making this the fourth year in the last five Baltimore will have played a road game at the site of that year’s Super Bowl (San Francisco, 2015; Minnesota, 2017; Atlanta, 2018; Miami, 2019).
—While the Dolphins’ prospects for a good season aren’t looking very positive. Their schedule – the league’s 18th-toughest based on this year’s opponents’ 2018 records – could help them, with four of their first five games at home surrounding an early bye week. Naturally, that comes with a trade-off, as three of Miami’s last four games are on the road – including a season-closer at New England – as well as four of the team’s last six games. The Dolphins will travel 20,550 miles to play their schedule this year, the 13th-most in the league.
—Last year, Miami got off to a 3-0 start and is 29-23-1 in opening games, which is the third-best in the AFC–and includes wins in five of its last six in Week One. After the hot start, Miami then slumped to 5-4 before losing five of its last seven games, including the last three. A big reason was that the team couldn’t hold on to leads, allowing 259 second-half points, including 158 in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins’ final win of the season was at home against New England – a common occurrence in recent years – when they got a last-second touchdown after a pass and several downfield laterals.
—Miami posted a plus-5 turnover ratio in 2018, a respectable number for a team that finished just below the break-even mark. The Dolphins only recovered seven of the 17 fumbles they forced, but eight different defenders combined for 21 interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns. Fourth-year corner Xavien Howard led the team and was among the NFL leaders with seven pickoffs.
—The Dolphins committed 108 accepted penalties last year, which was towards the middle of the 32-team NFL pack. Miami was flagged ten times for defensive pass interference, one of only six teams to reach double figures in that category, which is noteworthy given the brighter spotlight instant replay will shine on that type of call. But on the positive side, the Dolphins’ offense was flagged for only 17 false starts, and 15 holds, more than respectable totals over a 16-game season.
—Rookie head coach Brian Flores is one of six brand-new coaches (plus two veteran coaches in new places, Adam Gase and Bruce Arians) around the NFL this year. He came from the dynastic New England program, where he spent 15 years in a variety of roles and helped the team win seven AFC championships and four Super Bowls (39, 49, 51, 53). Flores was the Pats’ linebacker coach and defensive play-caller last year, holding the potent Los Angeles Rams’ offense to just three points in the lowest-scoring of the 53 Super Bowls to date. The Patriot defense ranked seventh last year, up from 17th the year before.
—Notable assistants on Flores’ staff include former Ravens offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell (asst. head coach, quarterbacks coach). Another is ex-Navy assistant Mike Judge (quality control).
—Even before Miami’s roster was picked apart in the offseason, it didn’t rank very highly in many major categories. The Dolphins were 31st and next-to-last in total offense (18th rushing, 30th passing, 26th scoring at 19.9 points per game) and 29th in total defense (31st vs. rush, 21st vs. pass, 27th scoring at 27.1 points per game allowed). The only team that was worse on offense in 2018 was the Arizona Cardinals, the Ravens’ Week Two home-opener opponent.
–-Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, 36, a 2005 seventh-round pick by the St. Louis Rams, was named the Dolphins’ Week One starter earlier this week. He’ll be the first signal-caller in NFL history to have started a game for eight different franchises. He is backed up by Josh Rosen, a second-year player, and the Arizona Cardinals’ 2018 first-round pick. Rosen was traded to the Dolphins in the offseason. Fitzpatrick will be the 20th different starter Miami has had since Dan Marino retired.
—Fitzpatrick averaged a league-high 9.6 yards per attempt last year. In two career games against the Ravens, he is 0-2 with five touchdowns, two interceptions, and an 88.5 passer rating. In eight games with Tampa Bay last year – including a win at New Orleans in the highest-scoring Week One game in NFL history – he completed two-thirds of his passes for 17 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 100.4 rating. Fitzpatrick is 50-75-1 lifetime as a starter.
—On the ground, fourth-year running back Kenyan Drake is the leading returning rusher after Frank Gore left in free agency. Drake, a 25-year-old Alabama product, gained only 535 yards last year, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and scoring four of the team’s relatively low total of seven rushing touchdowns. But he posted a career-high nine total touchdowns and over 1000 scrimmage yards. He is backed up by second-year pro Mark Walton, a former University of Miami player who carried the ball just 14 times as a rookie for the Cincinnati Bengals last year.
—Two of the Dolphins’ top three pass catchers–Danny Amendola and Kenny Stills–did not return to the team this year. It will be up to Drake to continue his pass-catching exploits out of the backfield. He was second on the team last year with 53 catches, a nine-yard average per catch, and five receiving touchdowns. He was one of only four running backs around the league to have 50 or more catches. The most productive returning wideout is Albert Wilson, who caught just 26 passes last year and scored a career-high four touchdowns, while DeVante Parker hauled in 24 receptions with one score. He has touchdowns in his last two games against the Ravens. Jakeem Grant chipped in with 21 receptions, and the tight end is second-year Penn State product Mike Gesicki, who had 22 catches as a rookie.
—The Dolphins’ offensive line allowed 52 sacks last year. If one were to go by the names on the depth chart, it doesn’t appear the unit has improved despite the acquisition of tackle Julian Davenport from Houston in a trade, one of 12 players acquired by the team in the past week alone. Third-year man Zach Sterup and rookie Isiah Prince are listed at the tackles, but Sterup is probably slated for the practice squad to make room for Davenport. Michael Delter, a rookie third-round pick from Wisconsin, and Jessie Davis are the guards. Nine-year pro Daniel Kilgore, a 31-year-old center in his second season in Miami, is on his fourth NFL team.
—Defensive end Charles Harris, the Dolphins’ 2017 first-round pick from Missouri, heads up a defensive line unit. That squad also includes tackle Davon Godchaux, a fifth-round draft classmate of Harris’, and this year’s first-round pick, Christian Wilkins, one of several Clemson defensive linemen who helped pace that program to a pair of national championships in the past three years.
—The Dolphins are without their leading tackler (Kiko Alonso) and sack artist (Robert Quinn). Inside linebacker Raekwon McMillan does return; he was second on the team with 69 solo tackles, adding 6.5 tackles for loss. The Dolphins accumulated only 31 sacks last year. With Quinn and Cameron Wake having departed, the leading sack man returning is linebacker Jerome Baker (three).
—Xavien Howard, a 2016 second-round pick and one of the league’s best corners, is regarded as the Dolphins’ shutdown player. His seven pickoffs last year tied him with two other players for the NFL lead, and he has 11 interceptions in his last seven games. He had a franchise-record three games with two interceptions and was named the team’s MVP last season while being named to his first career Pro Bowl.
—On the other corner is Eric Rowe, now on his third NFL team, but coming off a three-year, two-championship tenure in New England. Safeties Reshad Jones (72 tackles last year) and Bobby McCain (61 tackles) are both aggressive and fly to their targets. 2018 first-round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick had two interceptions as a rookie and was one of four rookies leaguewide with 75 or more tackles, adding nine pass breakups.
—Jakeem Grant split punt-returning duties with Amendola last year, but he seemingly has the job all to himself this year. He averaged over 16 yards per runback last year, posting a 71-yard touchdown. On kickoffs, he averaged over 29 yards per return, including a 102-yard score. Grant was one of only two players leaguewide last year to have both a punt- and kick-return score. Kenyan Drake will also see some return duty this year. The Dolphins’ coverage teams were below average last year, allowing ten yards per punt return and over 26 on kicks, including a 94-yard touchdown.
—Punter Matt Haack and kicker Jason Sanders are both back, giving Miami stability in the kicking game. Haack put 35 of 87 punts in the coffin corner last year, averaging 44.6 yards per punt. Like most kickers, Sanders led the Dolphins in scoring in 2018, tallying 80 points. But he didn’t get many chances to ply his trade, kicking 18 field goals in 20 attempts.
Game Prediction
The Ravens have transitioned into a youth- and a speed-oriented team that has much less predictability on both sides of the ball. As with any transition, don’t expect a finished product right from the start. It will take a few weeks to kick into gear.
But this team’s overall talent level is far better than Miami’s. The Dolphins didn’t figure to be very good–and that was before they traded away guard Laremy Tunsil and receiver Kenny Stills.
Bottom line? These are two teams in very different locations in the NFL hierarchy. Even if Miami makes Baltimore wear dark jerseys in the heat, that won’t affect the outcome. It should be an easy Ravens win.
Baltimore 23, Miami 3
