After three weeks, I’m 13-3 straight-up but 7-9 ATS (yikes!). Everyone likes a comeback story, so let’s see if I can make myself one in Week 4.
#9 Utah @ USC
Spread: Utah by 3.5
After being out-dueled by Zach Wilson last week, Kedon Slovis and the Trojans immediately get their shot at redemption. But hosting #9 Utah will be a challenge.
Kyle Whittingham may have his best team in over ten years. The Ute’s backfield, headed by Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, is one thing for the Trojans to worry about. The defense, giving up fewer than 10 points a game, is another.
For Utah, it’s deja vu. The 2015 team started hot, then lost to USC on the road. I don’t think Utah will get out of LA easily this year, either. But…. While I don’t think the Utes will be able to shut down Slovis, et al. completely, I do think they’ll be able to keep the Trojans’ offense in check. Moss and Huntley will take care of the rest.
Utah will win, but not cover.
Utah 27, USC 24
#11 Michigan @ #12 Wisconsin
Spread: Wisconsin by 3.5
These teams are under the spotlight after bye weeks. The prize is a signature win in a tale of two teams that are trending in different directions.
Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor (photo, SI)
Michigan was less than impressive in its OT home win over Army. There are question marks on offense, including a running game that produced only 2.4 yards-per-carry against the undersized Cadets.
Wisconsin is different. The Badgers scored blowout wins over decent opponents (USF and CMU) without yielding a point. Jack Coan is improved, Jonathan Taylor is prolific, and the defense is terrific.
The Wolverines don’t have much on offense–the Badgers do–and the home team has a stout D. This one shouldn’t be as close at the line predicts. Badgers win and cover.
Wisconsin 30, Michigan 24
#8 Auburn @ #16 Texas A&M
Spread: Texas A&M by 2.5
Two good defensives will face off in an SEC slugfest of evenly-matched squads.
Bo Nix had a breakout game against Oregon (photo, AL.com)
For Auburn, the big story is how quickly Bo Nix has matured. He was the question mark on a team that has a premier defensive front. But now that QB issues seemed to be solved Auburn, put simply, is an SEC threat.
A&M’s defense is just as capable, though, and Kellen Mond is more experienced than Nix.
In the end, I predict this game will come down to what it often does in the SEC–the running game. With JaTarvious Whitlow, Auburn has a definite advantage on the ground.
That should be enough for the Tigers to get out of College Station–but just barely. I’ll take AU to squeak by.
Auburn 24, Texas A&M 21
Oklahoma State @ #15 Texas
Spread: Texas by 6.5
Despite an early setback against LSU, Texas still has playoff aspirations. But time is running out. Beating OSU this weekend is a must. Otherwise, the dream ends on Saturday.
UT’s Sam Ehlinger (photo, Jay Janner/AMERICAN-STATESMAN)
The problem? The ‘Horns haven’t beaten the Cowboys in five years. Still, there’s hope. Spencer Sanders is doing a decent job at replacing Taylor Cornelius, and the same goes for Chuba Hubbard succeeding Justice Hill.
I think Texas is looking to blow off a little steam from the LSU loss. It’s a night game in Austin, the ‘Horns will potentially get back depth at running back, and Sam Ehlinger is Sam Ehlinger.
I predict that Texas will be ready this time. It’ll be a shootout, though. OSU has enough good talent to keep up with Texas. In the end, Ehlinger will be enough for UT to slip by the Cowpokes in a high-scoring affair. UT won’t cover, but they’ll win.
Texas 38, Oklahoma State 35
GAME OF THE WEEK
#7 Notre Dame @ #3 Georgia
Spread: Georgia by 12.5
UGA’s Jake Fromm (photo, 247Dawgs.com)
The 2017 rematch is here–just in time for these playoff hopefuls to get their first true tests of the year. Georgia is a pretty tough draw for the Irish, though. The Georgia D has reloaded, Jake Fromm looks like his usual self, and the ground game is potent.
On the other side, Notre Dame’s shaky start against Louisville raises concerns, especially in the running game. The Irish haven’t found a solid replacement for Dexter Williams. And while ND’s defense is strong, I don’t think it will hold up against UGA’s potent offense.
Advantage goes to the ‘Dawgs in this hyped-up home game. UGA’s defense will be too much for ND’s one-dimensional offense. Georgia wins comfortably and covers the spread.
Georgia 34, Notre Dame 20
