‘It’s dicey’ is my answer. The NFL has evolved–both in its business model and on-the-field.
Last February, I wrote an article, Truth About NFL Running Backs, in which I penned this: “Teams can field serviceable running backs without breaking the bank to sign them.”
There’s hardly a reason for an organization to pay a RB beyond his rookie contract. Teams don’t want to give a RB a big contract when there’s always a large, fresh, and hungry supply of backs ready to come into the league. That’s just the unfortunate (for running backs) truth.
Besides, it’s not feasible for the NFL to create a separate payscale for running backs based on their professional shelflife. Before you know it, quarterbacks, receivers, defensive ends, shut down corners, and so on, will ask for their own respective position payscale.
But what if a RB lights it up during his first two seasons and, then, holds out? Let’s say he’s a dynamic player and is just 21-22 years old. Doesn’t he have more leverage in getting a solid multi-year contract than a 25-or-26-year-old back who can be replaced in the draft for significantly less money?
Zeke is one of the few exceptions to the rule (photo, The Ohio State University)
Let’s put that issue to the test. What if Saquon Barkley has another outstanding season. If he does, I’d advise him to possibly hold out. Why? The Giants need him more than any other player on the team, and it would make some sense for NY to lock up Barkley for the prime of his career.
Ezekiel Elliott is another example. He’s only 23 but has mileage on his legs like a seasoned veteran. But I also think Zeke is young enough–and has enough skill–to be productive for another four seasons. But, even then, let’s face it: Elliott (like Barkley) is an exception to the rule.
So what are the implications for high school and college RBs, especially those who are good enough to play in the NFL someday? Well, you have to wonder why any kid would want to be ‘an old fashioned running back.’ In addition to the difficulty in securing a long-term contract, the game has evolved. With spread offenses galore, the RB role has bee redefined and lessened.
The reality is this: changes in the NFL business model and the evolution of the game have had an impact on running backs–perhaps more than any other position player. Just think about it. Not too long ago, we’d see five or six running backs go every year in the first round of the NFL Draft. Today, experts are baffled if more than one RB gets selected in the first round. So, I ask again: Why would any young athlete want to become a running back?
Here’s even more proof of the pudding.
When was the last time a Super Bowl winner had on its roster a RB who led the league in rushing that year? The answer is found in NFL ancient history. The year was 1998, and the player was Terrell Davis.
Whether we–or young RBs–like it, the NFL has changed. Running backs still have a role to play, but the days of ‘THE back,’ a feature back who played for one team and for an extended time … well … those days are over. The ‘new running back’ in my estimation is the quarterback. Today, there’s a young crop of QBs that are mobile, more athletic, bigger, stronger, and not afraid to take a hit.
What’s it all mean for running backs? I think we’ll see many of them transition into wide receivers, and even cornerbacks, as a way to ensure longer shelf life AND a greater opportunity to cash-in on their talent.
