Here’s my 360 analysis going into the season, including team analyses, division picks, conference champs, and SB winner. I’ve tossed in my choice for individual awards, too. Enjoy!
My ‘personal’ Christmas has returned! It’s Opening Sunday in the NFL. That day is like opening a bunch of presents on Christmas morning. The Week 1 schedule of 16 games, spread from Thursday to Monday, is a true gift.
And one of the things I like best is this: every year things change. Poor teams become legit. Some teams with high expectations fall from grace. Injuries mount, new players make names for themselves, and the occasional early (and sometimes sudden) retirement can set back a team for years. (Andrew Luck’s early retirement is devastating for a Colts’ franchise that seemed prime to become a Super Bowl contender.)
Overview
Before I give you my official predictions for the 2019 season, here’s a quick deep dive into what to look for in the NFL this year.
What’s in store for these two? (photo, Sporting News)
What about teams that were serious contenders last year? Will they repeat? I was high on the Los Angeles Chargers going into the 2018 season because I thought Phillip Rivers would finally get a well-deserved championship ring. LAC came close, but I doubt this team can repeat their 2018 performance. I do wonder if the Saints can keep the train moving this year, too. If they protect Brees, they should do fine, but New Orlean’s defense is always a concern.
What about 2018 playoff teams that are unlikely to return. Let’s start with the Colts because of Luck’s retirement. Borderline teams are the Ravens and Chargers in the AFC, and the NFC’s Bears and Seahawks. I expect the Chicago’s defense to fall off a bit, and I think Seattle will struggle to score points with its lackluster offense.
Are there sleeper teams? I think the Broncos are a total sleeper in the AFC West. Denver has a top-notch defense and offensive weapons, including (finally) a veteran quarterback. Doesn’t this John Elway-created formula sound familiar? Elway thinks he can catch lightning in a bottle twice. He signed Peyton Manning in his twilight years, and that brought the organization a championship. Elway hopes Flacco can do the same.
In Cleveland, Mayfield is the straw the stirs the drink (photo, Sporting News)
Are there turnaround teams? Cleveland. I believe this team is on the right track–as long as they keep it together in the locker room. The Browns have talent on both sides of the ball, and a city that has their back. While I expect the Browns record to improve, I’m not sure they’re quite ready to take over the AFC North. If the defense can become a top 10 squad, then I could see Cleveland making the playoffs and even making some noise while they’re at it.
Will there be any ‘big leapers?” I mean teams that will go from bad (even worse) to first? Perhaps the Jaguars can take advantage of Luck’s departure. With Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles taking over as the starter, the Jags have the best chance (in my opinion) to go from ‘worst to first.’ I expect the Vikings, Falcons, and Packers to take big leaps this season, too, especially Minnesota with a stacked roster and plenty of experience. And what’s in store for Aaron Rodgers in his new offense? I think this dynamic player has serious football smarts and will be able to adapt–even at this late stage of his career. (I still believe Rodgers is the best QB in the game.) I also think Green Bay has improved its defense and has a few playmakers on offense. DeVante Adams is the #1 guy. But if RB Aaron Jones can produce like he did last season, then the Pack could be back after a two-year playoff hiatus.
Ok, with all of that said, let’s get to the predictions.
AFC
East
Patriots, 12-4*
Jets, 9- 7
Bills, 7-9
Dolphins 4-12
North
Steelers, 11-5*
Ravens, 9-7
Browns, 9-7
Bengals, 3-13
South
Texans, 10-6*
Jaguars, 10-6*
Titans, 7-9
Colts, 7-9
West
Broncos, 11-5*
Chiefs, 11-5*
Chargers, 9-7
Raiders, 7-9
NFC
East
Cowboys, 11-5*
Eagles, 11-5*
Giants, 7-9
Redskins, 6-10
North
Vikings, 12-4*
Packers, 10-6*
Bears, 9-7
Lions, 5-11
South
Falcons, 11-5*
Saints, 10-6
Panthers, 7-9
Bucs, 5-12
West
Rams, 12-4*
Seahawks, 10-6
49ers, 6-10
Cardinals, 6-10
*Playoff team
The Playoffs
I think the field is more wide open this year than it has been in quite some time. ‘The Brady Bunch’ is no longer a guarantee. Gronk retired, and there are Josh Gordon’s off-field issues. I see no clear cut favorite in either the AFC or NFC. Here’s how I think things will shake out.
AFC Championship: BRONCOS over Chiefs
Big Three in Denver (photo, Denver7)
WHY I’M PICKING THE BRONCOS: The Broncos have a top-three defense in the league. They can get to the quarterback; they cover well in the secondary, and they’re disciplined and create turnovers. Fangio is a defensive mastermind, and he’ll make Denver’s defense one that opposing quarterbacks will fear. Offensively, they have playmakers at WR with Sanders and Sutton, plus a formidable running game in Phillip Lindsay and other young backs. Add Joe Flacco to the mix and you have something special. Flacco had perhaps the greatest postseason in league history when he took home Super Bowl MVP honors with Baltimore. Flacco will love playing for this football team because he’ll be the unquestioned offensive leader. Bradley Chubb and Von Miller will help take care of a stout and well-coached defense. I can’t overstate Fangio’s presence and the demands he puts on his guys to create perfection. Every defense he touched has turned to gold!
NFC Championship: VIKINGS over Cowboys
The NFL’s Comeback Kid lives in North Country (photo, Minnesota Vikings)
WHY I’M PICKING THE VIKINGS: I love the Vikings! Last year was a mess–despite Kirk Cousins putting up the best numbers of his career. Dalvin Cook couldn’t stay healthy last season, and the Vikings were counting on him to carry the load. Cook has looked healthy this preseason, and he also has a big chip on his shoulder with something to prove. We all know what Diggs, Theilen, and Rudolph can do in the passing game. I believe head coach Mike Zimmer will make adjustments and improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Harrison Smith is one of the best safeties in the league and a leader on defense. They have other playmakers, too, like Anthony Barr, Xavier Rhodes, Everson Griffen, and Eric Kendricks, to name a few. All of these players have a huge chip on their shoulders. They were expected to make a Super Bowl run last year and, instead, laid an egg. Don’t forget that only two years ago, the Vikings were minutes away from going to the SB.
Super Bowl: VIKINGS over Broncos, 24-23.
Season Awards
NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers
OFF MVP: Saquon Barkley
DEF MVP: Jalen Smith
OFF ROY: Josh Jacobs
DEF ROY: Josh Allen
Coach of the Year: Vic Fangio
Comeback Player: Le’Veon Bell
