Will Arizona take Murray with the top choice? Will another team trade up? Or will neither happen? I have my doubts about whether Kyler will be a top-five pick.
Kyler Murray (photo, Crimsonandcreammachine.com)
It seems apparent that Kyler Murray will be a first-round selection in the NFL Draft come April 25th. There’s speculation that the reigning Heisman Trophy winner could even be the first overall pick–if not by the Arizona Cardinals, who have the top choice, then quite possibly by a team that will trade up for him.
I believe the latter is a more likely option. But I just don’t think Murray will be the #1 overall draft choice–no matter who picks first.
Josh Rosen–the Cards’ first-round pick last year–showed promise when he took over as the Cardinals starting quarterback. However, his numbers were ugly overall. Arizona was a bad team, and it’s tough for a rookie QB to come in and make an immediate impact.
It can be done–an example is Heisman champ Baker Mayfield–but those examples are few and far between. That’s why I still believe Rosen could be a 10-12-year NFL starter. Yes, he has a long way to go, but with the right coaching and better personnel, Rosen could rise to the occasion.
Will Cardinals stick with Rosen or go with Murray? (photo, YouTube)
That’s where new head coach Kliff Kingsbury comes into the picture. The hope is that the Cardinals new guy–only 39-years-old–will do for Arizona what Sean McVay has done for the Rams. And that includes grooming the QB.
But the Cards have this situation to resolve. Drafting a quarterback in the first round in back-to-back seasons is very rare. For that reason, I predict that the Cardinals will look for a buyer and–if they find one–trade Murray in exchange for other assets.
Even that thought gives me the yips, th0ugh! If I were a GM for other NFL clubs, I wouldn’t give up anything close to significant to acquire Kyler Murray.
Sure, Murray was a great college player. He won the Heisman but, then again, so did Johnny Manziel. While I’m not saying that Murray will become another Manziel, I am saying that playing great in college and winning the Heisman doesn’t translate automatically into pro excellence. Besides, I’d be a bit sketchy on using the overall #1 pick to draft a 5’10″, 200-pound quarterback.
Murray is a superior athlete, no doubt, but so was Michael Vick. While Vick had some success in the NFL, he didn’t come anywhere close to meeting expectations. And just like Vick, I worry about Murray’s health. The kid isn’t going to get any taller and he can only carry so much weight. At issue is whether Murray’s body is equipped to take big hits in the NFL–especially because interest in Murray isn’t only about his arm, it’s also very much about his legs.
Is there a team out there that might take the bait? Looking up and down the draft order, I see a couple of NFL teams that could gamble on Murray and trade up to get him.
One team is Oakland, which has the 4th pick. But there are conflicting stories about whether HC Jon Gruden is ‘all in’ on Derek Carr. We know that the Giants need a quarterback, but we don’t know whether New York is looking right now. They may stick it out with Eli and take the best available player–just like they did last season when they drafted Saquon Barkley (second overall pick). This year the G-Men have the 6th pick in the first round courtesy of the OBJ deal.
The Bengals–with the 11th pick—should be looking for a quarterback, but ‘should’ is a very big word. I think Cincinnati has a good chance of getting Murray if it that’s the direction it wants to go. The Dolphins own the 13th selection and (with Ryan Tannehill now in Tennessee) Miami could take a shot at Murray. However, there’s scuttlebutt that Miami will keep its powder dry until next year when it will focus on getting Tua in the 2020 Draft.
My take is this. Unless one of those teams (or somebody else) trades up for Murray, I doubt if he’ll be a top-five draft pick.
Gotta’ love the NFL Draft!
I agree with the points you have made. But I still think Murray will be a top 5 pick and probably the first pick because a team will take the bait and reach for him. Maybe Murray will be great but I agree that it is a risk. Good article!!!
he will definitely get drafted in the top five and I say he goes first. not that I agree with that but there’s always a team that will go for the hype and make a bold move. I bet the Raiders do it.