Luck has played its part this year, but luck always plays a part in cup competitions. The primary reason for English success is renewed competition in the Premier League.
The Champions League quarter-final draw was conducted last Friday. And for the first time since 2008/09, the quarter-finals includes four English teams. Was this just a lucky season or does it signify a changing of the guard?
To be clear, English teams have dominated Champions League, but that was back in 2004/05 and, more recently, in 2011/12. However, in recent years English teams have struggled–with last season a case in point. Five English teams reached the first round of the knock-out phase, but only two progressed to the quarter-finals.
Historically, dominance in the Champions League has ebbed and flowed from various leagues temporarily.
This time, there’s more than talent involved. If one analyzes how these British teams arrived at the quarter-final stage, then the initial conclusion would likely favor luck. Manchester United squeaked past Paris Saint-Germain, overturning a 2-0 home defeat with a 3-1 victory away at the Parc des Princes. ManU progressing on away goals after a 90th-minute penalty scored by Marcus Rashford. Tottenham and Liverpool dispatched their respective German opponents with relative ease. How is that luck? Both teams were fortunate to have reached the knock-out stage.
Liverpool progressed by virtue of goals scored in the group stages after beating Napoli at home 1-0 in the last round of group matches. Similarly, Tottenham progressed on goals scored. But with a draw against Barcelona in their last fixture, they had to rely on PSV Eindhoven for help–a team that subsequently held Inter Milan to a draw away from home. Only Manchester City progressed comfortably, topping their group, and then putting a weak Schalke team to the sword, winning 10-2 on aggregate.
With one English team guaranteed to make the semi-finals–and Liverpool expected to progress due to a favourable draw–Lady Luck and/or the football gods have smiled kindly on English teams this season. But is that conclusion sufficient?
The Premier League has a global reputation of being the most competitive league in the world–a reputation it has not entirely lived up to over the last few seasons. Last season Manchester City won by 19 points. The year before, Chelsea set a new record for the most amount of wins in a Premier League season. The 2015-16 season saw Leicester City take the title by 10 points–a team the season before who narrowly avoided relegation.
The last closely fought title race was back in 2013-14, and English teams success in Europe has struggled because of this.
This season, however, the competition is back. There is a renewed title race with Liverpool pushing Manchester City all the way. In addition, the competition for the top four and Champions League football is the most competitive it has ever been–something that I touched on in last week’s article.
The increased competitive nature of the domestic league and the recent European success are clearly correlated.
Week-in-and-week-out, teams in the top six of the Premier League are under extreme pressure to win–more so than ever. Teams in the top six have always been under pressure to win each game in previous years, but there has been an unwritten understanding that it’s not the end of the world if you lose a game. That’s because your rivals will drop points at some point as well.
But that approach has been completely eradicated this year with the emergence of what we’ll call ‘The New Top Six,’ an elite group with teams expected to beat every team in the division. The title will only be decided by games amongst the top six. Every game is now a Cup Final.
The by-product of this new league set-up has also delivered new European success. The top teams in England are becoming accustomed to pressurized situations and are therefore better equipped to perform. Having to deal with the weekly ‘do or die’ atmosphere in the Premier League has provided a critical psychological edge for English teams playing on a European stage.
I recognize that luck has played its part this year, but luck always plays a part in cup competitions. The primary reason for English success is renewed competition in the Premier League. With no sign of change, I predict that this year is the beginning of English dominance in European competitions.
