In Premier League, Race For 4th Deserves Attention

With the top two spots secured, it’s a battle for the final two slots. Arsenal and Chelsea are my picks. Here’s why.  

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As the Premier League ticks into its final stages, it’s proverbial ‘crunch time.’ But even that reference–albeit overused–doesn’t capture the tension felt during the final stages of a league season.

So it’s once again the time to predict where things will settle, especially now that the race for the top four has blown wide open. Only four points separate the 3rd from 6th!

I’m writing this column after yet another exciting weekend of Premier League action. Tottenham recorded their ninth loss of the season and third out of the last four fixtures, Arsenal emerged triumphant over the inform Manchester United, and Chelsea drew with Wolves.

With that, here’s my take on what might happen the rest of the way.

Arsenal

Coming off the back of an important win against Manchester United–a team that embarrassed them at home at the end of January in the FA Cup and were on a 12-game unbeaten run in the League–it would appear that Arsenal are in the ascendency. I believe they have the best chance to secure Champions League football.

They can also draw confidence from upcoming fixtures:

– Wolves (A)
– Newcastle (H)
– Everton (A)
– Watford (A)
– Crystal Palace (H)
– Leicester City (A)
– Brighton (H)
– Burnley (A)

Yes, the run to season’s end is dispersed with tricky away fixtures, namely against Wolves, Leicester, and Watford (teams that reside in the top half of the table), but these are winnable games for a team of Arsenal’s quality and ambition. Besides, Arsenal does not have to play against the other teams in the Top 6.

Tottenham Hotspur

While the picture at first glance is rosy for Tottenham Hotspur, the situation is not as positive as it seems. That’s saying something for a team that has had unprecedented success in recent years–achieving a Top 4 finish for three straight seasons. And while this year looked similarly inclined, especially after accumulating a record amount of points by January’s end and being just a few points off the Premier League summit, a combination of injuries and poor results has seen Hotspur dragged back into the race for a top-four spot.

And it’s a race I believe they will not win. Remaining fixtures tell why.

– Crystal Palace (H)
– Liverpool (A)
– Brighton (H)
– Huddersfield (H)
– Manchester City (A)
– West Ham (H)
– Bournemouth (A)
– Everton (H)

Tottenham’s remaining home fixtures with relegation strugglers Brighton and Huddersfield are juxtaposed with gigantic away fixtures with the two top teams in the division.

I say that because no team has amassed over ten losses and finished in the top four in the last ten years.

For Tottenham to secure a Champions League spot, the best hope is to focus on winning this year’s tournament. That’s because I think a top-four finish is out of the question.

Manchester United

What a 2019 it has been for Manchester United! They have resurrected their top four chances and performed a miracle in Paris in Champions League by overcoming a 2-goal deficit against PSG.

With Ole Gonna Solskjaer’s Midas Touch, this team looks unstoppable. But wait! Ritter rivals Arsenal at the weekend brought Solskjaer’s men back to earth.

So will the mountain they’ve been climbing be a little too high? Let’s answer by looking at ManU’s remaining schedule.

– Watford (H)
– Wolves (A)
– West Ham (H)
– Everton (A)
– Manchester City (A)
– Chelsea (H)
– Huddersfield (A)
– Cardiff (H)

I see this as an easy close to the season. There’s an away fixture to all-but-relegated Huddersfield and a home match against struggling Cardiff. But antecedent to these contests come monumental fixtures–an away trip to local rivals and title-chasing Manchester City (on paper an all-but-impossible game to win), and an important home fixture with Chelsea.

Chelsea

Like Manchester United, Chelsea have enjoyed lots of media coverage during 2019. However, it has been almost entirely negative, including questions over Sarri’s future and the Kepa situation. Only after a turbulent early February, have Chelsea begun to right the ship.

– Brighton (H)
– Everton (A)
– Cardiff (A)
– West Ham (H)
– Liverpool (A)
– Burnley (H)
– Manchester United (A)
– Watford (H)
– Leicester City (A)

Chelsea’s remaining fixtures resemble Manchester United’s. There are winnable games against teams that have very little to play for. There’s a difficult fixture against a title chaser. And there’s the decider game against United.

Chelsea, on the other hand, can afford to rest players and keep the squad fit. Yes, Chelsea are still in Europa League contention, but they have a good enough squad to field a second string team and still win.

What’s my conclusion? I believe Chelsea have the potential to finish the season in the top four and, then, look to build for next year.

The Bottom Line

It is still somewhat in the early days with lots of twists and turns to play out in the race for the top four. However, I think Arsenal and Chelsea have the best remaining fixtures and, with that, the best chances of securing Champions League football for next season.