The Colts are underrated.
Soon after the Super Bowl ends each year, Vegas puts out odds on the following year’s Super Bowl. Not surprisingly, teams that did best the year before are typically at the top of next year’s projections. That’s what happened this time.
I think the bookmakers missed a team. At 20-1 odds they have it bundled in a group that’s ranked from #11-#15 to win Super Bowl 54 (KC is tops at 6-1). That team is the Indianapolis Colts.
So a team that won 9 out of its last ten games is ranked in the middle of the NFL pack–along with teams like the Ravens and Texans. That doesn’t make sense to me.
Here are five reasons why I’m high on the Colts.
Luck is on the Colts’ side (photo, SI.com)
First, you can’t dismiss a team that has one of the very best quarterbacks in the league. Andrew Luck has been on fire since returning from his horrific shoulder injury. He’s not only back, but he looks better than ever! In 2018, Luck threw for over 4500 yards and 39 TDs with a nearly 70% completion rate and 100 QBR.
Yeah, I know, one player does not a team make. But here’s a second thing that’s working in the Colts favor–the AFC South. It’s inarguably one of the NFL’s weakest divisions, and that reality doesn’t look like it will change, either. The Jaguars are a new play with Nick Foles at the helm. The Titans are average at best–injury prone with limited offensive power. And the most recent beneficiary of a weak division–the Texans–are often more lucky than good. It was the Colts, after all, that knocked them out of the postseason last year–in Texas, no less.
Here’s a third reason why I like the Colts’ chances–offseason signing. The team grabbed free agents WR Devin Funchess and veteran linebacker Justin Houston. Funchess, who can make big plays using his size and great hands, will take pressure off T.Y. Hilton, who’s getting tired of being double-teamed. His addition also means that Luck has three legitimate targets in Funchess, Hilton, and TW Eric Ebron. On the defensive side, Houston will be a great mentor-partner to last year’s defensive ROY, Darius Leonard, who led the NFL in tackles last year.
Marlon Mack (photo, Stampede Blue)
The running game is the fourth reason I like the Colts chances. Admittedly, Indianapolis hasn’t had a solid running game since Edgerrin James was playing in central Indiana. Enter Marlon Mack. In 2018 Mack showed that he’s capable of carrying the load, which also means taking pressure off Luck and the passing game. Last year Mack rushed for almost 1000 yards and had a nearly five yards-per-carry average.
The fifth reason I’m high on Indy is defense. Last year, the Colts played better defensively as the year progressed. First-year DC Matt Eberflus constructed a bunch of no-name players into a top 10 stop-crew. With almost all of those players back in 2019, I look for the defense to keep improving.
So those are five reasons I’m high on the Colts. If they can get off to a hot start and manage 12-13 wins, I see a bye in the first round and possibly home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Face it: a dome team is tough to beat at home, and the Colts have a great chance at getting that top seed.
With Luck, this team can do it.
