Premier League teams are still paying large sums for players and large transfers will still occur. But the days of overpaying for average players is drawing to a close.
In my last column, I discussed the potential problems Tottenham face regarding their squad and how investments were crucial. However, they are not the only team in the Top 6–let alone the rest of the Premier League–that need serious investment to fix glaring issues facing their squads.
Arsenal need to invest in a whole new defensive unit, Manchester United are still chasing a world-class centre back, Manchester City need a left back cover as Benjamin Mendy is missing from the match-day squad through injury.
These teams have identifiable weaknesses, and the rest of the fourteen teams seek to strengthen their Premier League status.
But the January transfer window total was significantly lower this year, dropping by over 200 million from the previous year, and by 50 million from 2017.
Total Spent by the Premier League (£) Over the Past Five Years
2019: 180
2018: 419.5
2017: 236.7
2016: 117.5
2015: 118.2
Each of the current Top 6 have well-defined reasons for not spending big this transfer window. Arsenal do not have the funds available and no Champions League football either. Tottenham have limited funds; the cost of improving their stadium continues to hamper them. Manchester City and Liverpool have spent big recently on improving their squads. Manchester United are currently in the process of deciding on its next manager, thereby making spending an imprudent proposition until the successor to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is announced–if, indeed, there is to be one. Chelsea were the only team in the Top 6 to spend big–buying Cristian Pulisic from Borussia Dortmund for £58 million.
I think the reason we’ve witnessed a drop in January transfers is that Premier League teams are tired of being exploited. The transfer bubble of the last 3-5 years is about to burst.
Widely regarded as the greatest league in the world, the Premier League has seen a vast increase in revenue over the last six years through three massive domestic TV deals and an ever-increasing interest from international markets. The TV deals have pumped an inordinate amount of money into the pockets of Premier League teams, leading to an inevitable explosion of transfer fees and a flurry of spending.
It was not just the Top 6 in the Premier League, and the elite teams in Europe that could afford to spend big on players, mid-table Premier League teams suddenly had the financial power to acquire talented players.
Premier League–Total Paid for TV rights (£)
2013-2016: 3.018
2016-2019: 5.136
2019-2022: 4.55*
*Final amount excludes 20 games which Amazon bought (the figure has not been released).
This increased spending from mid-table sides had the knock-on effect. Previously, if a team inquired about a talented player which a club wished to keep hold of, the parent club would slap a high valuation on the player to deter clubs. However, with the increased amount of money at their disposal, teams began to match these valuations and go ahead with the purchase. The art of haggling dissipated almost overnight.
Player valuations grew exponentially, and Premier League clubs began to be exploited, foolishly paying over the odds for almost every player, and pumping vast amounts of money into the transfer market–a trend which has lasted for several years.
Nonetheless, the light is visible at the end of the tunnel with teams reigning in their craziness and beginning to mature. With Daniel Levy being a prominent figure, the so-called big teams have begun to wise up to the idea of being exploited. They are once again walking away from deals when prices are too high.
Tottenham walked away from deals with Wilfred Zaha and Jack Grealish. Manchester United refused to fork out for Harry Maguire. Manchester City initially walked away from the Riyad Mahrez deal–until the price came down.
Premier League teams are still willing to pay large sums of money for players, and I predict large transfers will occur. But I believe the days of overpaying for average squad players is drawing to a close.
