Joey P’s Super Bowl Prediction

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No sporting event is as big as the Super Bowl. And this year, an already HUGE game will pit a dynastic bunch against young aspirants. Who’ll win? My money is on the dynasty.  


WHAT: Super Bowl LIII, for the championship of the National Football League
WHEN: 6:30 p.m. (ET), Sunday, Feb. 3
WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Stadium; Atlanta, Georgia (75,000)
AFC champions (visitors): New England Patriots, 11-5, AFC East champions, No. 2 seed
NFC champions (home): Los Angeles Rams, 13-3, NFC West champions, No. 2 seed
TV: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, booth; Jay Feely, Tracy Wolfson, Evan Washburn, sidelines
RADIO: Kevin Harlan, Kurt Warner, Mike Holmgren, booth; Ed Werder, Tony Boselli, sidelines
REFEREE: John Parry

About the Super Bowl

This Super Bowl will be the third to be held in Atlanta and the first since Super Bowl 34 (Rams-Titans). Super Bowl 28 (Bills-Cowboys) was also held there–with both previous games at the now-demolished Georgia Dome. This year, the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium–which opened in August 2017–will host the Super Bowl, the 25th different stadium to do so. It will be the 18th Super Bowl to be played either under a fixed dome or with a retractable roof closed if that is the case on game day.

–Miami and New Orleans have hosted ten Super Bowls each, but both cities have used two different stadiums to host the game. The Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans has hosted the most Super Bowls, with seven, and it is already scheduled to host Super Bowl 58 in February of 2024. There have been six Super Bowls held at college-campus stadiums–three at Tulane (4, 6, 9) and one each at Arizona State (30), Rice (8) and Stanford (19).

–There were ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ games. The warmest Super Bowl was SB 7 (Miami-Washington) played at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (84 degrees). The coldest SB was 6 (Dallas-Miami) in New Orleans–an outdoor game at Tulane played in 39-degree chill.

–-This year’s Super Bowl will be the 17th to be played in February, and the 15th consecutive game played in the year’s second month. The first February Super Bowl was 36 (Rams-Patriots), which was moved back by necessity because of the 9/11 terrorist attacks (postponing Week 2 games). Due to fewer playoff rounds and fewer teams in the league at the time, the earliest Super Bowl by date was SB 11 (Raiders-Vikings), which was played on January 9, 1977. The latest games took place on February 7, which has occurred twice (44, 50).

–New England is participating in its 11th Super Bowl (5-5), breaking its record for the most by any franchise. That relegates Dallas (5-3), Pittsburgh (6-2) and Denver (3-5) to second place with eight each. However, the Patriots have five losses in the big game–tied for the most with Denver. Tied for the second-most defeats are Buffalo and Minnesota (0-4 each).

–The NFC representative (before 1970, the pre-merger NFL champion) has won 27 Super Bowls, only two more than their AFC opponents (or pre-merger AFL champions). It has been rather even lately with the NFC holding a 6-5 edge in the last 11 games. But the AFC champion had won four of five Super Bowls before Philadelphia’s win last year.

–Comebacks are rare.Only four Super Bowls have featured comebacks of ten or more points by the winning team: Washington (22), New Orleans (44), New England (49) and the Patriots’ 25-point rally in Super Bowl 51.

–Since the current seeded postseason format began in 1990, only seven Super Bowls, including last year’s Philadelphia-New England matchup, have featured the No. 1 seeds from each conference. Two years ago, Atlanta was the No. 2 NFC seed, breaking a streak of three Super Bowls that saw the top seeds square off. This year’s game features both No. 2 seeds.

–Los Angeles is the designated home team and will have jersey choice. Teams with choice usually choose dark home tops. The Rams will wear 70s-style blue-and-gold throwback uniforms. Teams with jersey choice are 21-31 in Super Bowls, but teams wearing white jerseys–whether they had the choice or not–have won 12 of the last 14 games.

–-As the home team, Los Angeles will have its logo painted in the left-side end zone and will occupy the far-side bench at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. New England, the designated visiting team, will have its logo painted in the right-side end zone and will occupy the near-side bench.

–-Teams that win the coin toss are 23-29 in Super Bowls. Ever since deferring the choice became an option, teams that have done so have lost six of nine times.

–Leading at halftime is good. Teams that have led at halftime of the Super Bowl are 38-11. Three games were even-up at the half–-Super Bowl 49 (Seattle-New England, 14-14), Super Bowl 39 (Philadelphia-New England, 7-7), and Super Bowl 23 (Cincinnati-San Francisco, 3-3). Teams that score first are 35-17 in Super Bowls. The eventual winner has scored first in seven of the last eight Super Bowls.

–-There have been ten kick-return scores in Super Bowl history. But only four by members of the eventual winning team, including two by the Ravens (Desmond Howard, 31; Jermaine Lewis, 35; Jacoby Jones, 47; Percy Harvin, 48). In Super Bowl 41, Chicago’s Devin Hester became the only player to run back an opening kickoff for a touchdown. Two players have run back the second-half kickoff for a score–Baltimore’s Jones and Seattle’s Harvin.

–Surprisingly, there has never been a punt-return touchdown in a Super Bowl. The longest such runback was 61 yards by Denver’s Jordan Norwood in Super Bowl 50 against Carolina.

–Many shoutouts, but no shutouts. There has never been a shutout in a Super Bowl, and there had never been an overtime Super Bowl until just two years ago when New England outlasted Atlanta.

–-There have been 12 missed extra points during Super Bowls, including two in last year’s game. And there have been just nine two-point conversions; two such attempts failed last year. There have been six fumble returns for Super Bowl touchdowns (including two by Dallas in Super Bowl 28 in Atlanta). Teams are 4-2 when accomplishing that feat, including wins by the last four straight teams that have done so. There have been 15 interception returns for scores in Super Bowls (including two by Tampa Bay’s Dwight Smith in Super Bowl 37), but only one by a member of the losing team: Atlanta’s Robert Alford, who did it two years ago.

–-There have been 30 different head or assistant coaches who have won Super Bowls with at least two different teams. They include current Baltimore defensive coordinator Dean Pees and ex-Ravens assistants Gary Kubiak, Wilbert Montgomery, Jim Caldwell, Milt Jackson, and Russ Purnell. Kubiak was the first to win Super Bowls as a player and head coach with the same team. There have been 22 individuals to win titles as both a player and coach, including ex-Baltimore offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh and assistant coach Todd Washington, who played for Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII.

–-While New England quarterback Tom Brady will appear in his record ninth Super Bowl–more than any player at any position. The Rams’ Jared Goff will start his first. Quarterbacks who have started only one Super Bowl during their careers are 15-25.

–Will age matter? At approximately 17 years, this year will offer the largest age spread between starting quarterbacks in Super Bowl history. With 33 years separating Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, 66, and the Rams’ Sean McVay, 33, it is also the largest difference between the ages of the head coaches in the history of the title game.

–As is the case with most Super Bowl opponents, New England and Los Angeles haven’t played each other that often. The teams met in Super Bowl 36–this year’s game is taking place 17 years to the day of that game. The Rams represented St. Louis back then, but haven’t clashed in regular-season play since 2016. New England has won five consecutive head-to-head meetings, a streak that began with that Super Bowl. They lead the lifetime series, 7-5.

–There have been 55 players to win the Super Bowl with more than one team. They include Baltimore Colts linebacker Ted Hendricks, quarterback Earl Morrall, and center Bill Curry, as well as Ravens players Robert Bailey, Billy Davis, Dannell Ellerbe, Corey Graham, Marcus Nash, Shannon Sharpe, Torrey Smith, and Harry Swayne. Ellerbe, Graham, and Smith were all on last year’s Philadelphia team that won Super Bowl 52.

–Los Angeles’ Jared Goff will become only the fourth different Super Bowl starting quarterback to wear #16. He will be the first since San Francisco’s Joe Montana in Super Bowl 24. Quarterbacks that have worn the 16 jerseys are 7-2 in Super Bowls, losing only with Len Dawson in the first Super Bowl and Miami’s David Woodley in Super Bowl 17. New England’s Tom Brady wears #12 – the most frequent starting-quarterback number in Super Bowl history – and those signal-callers are 16-13 in Super Bowls.

–-There have been seven Super Bowls that have been played just one week after the conference title games, and those games have had a final average margin of 11.4 points. The other Super Bowls, played after a two-week break, have not been drastically less competitive, as many believe, for they have had an average margin of nearly 15 points. There are no plans in the future to reduce the gap between the conference title games and the Super Bowl to one week; the last time there was such a short break was before Super Bowl 37. Eight or fewer points have decided six of the last eight Super Bowls.

–-In 52 previous Super Bowls, quarterbacks were the game’s Most Valuable Player 29 times, including the last two straight and after nine of the last 12 games. The MVP trophy was named after late commissioner Pete Rozelle starting with Super Bowl 25, the first Super Bowl to take place after his death.

–The name of late Green Bay and Washington’s head coach Vince Lombardi is on the trophy. The trophy is a sterling silver trophy created by Tiffany & Company. It’s a regulation-size silver football mounted in a kicking position on a pyramid-like stand of three concave sides. The trophy stands 20.75 inches tall, weighs 107.3 ounces, and is worth $25k+. The words “Vince Lombardi Trophy” and “Super Bowl LIII” are engraved on the base, along with the NFL shield.

–-The Lombardi Trophy will be carried to the post-game victory platform by a yet-to-be-announced football dignitary. This practice began at Super Bowl 40 in Detroit (Seahawks-Steelers). Those who have performed this task in the past have included former Baltimore Colts coach Don Shula, Navy quarterback Roger Staubach, and Colts receiver Raymond Berry.

–Relatives galore have graced the field. There have been 19 pairs of fathers and sons that have played in Super Bowls and 29 sets of brothers. The relatives include Ravens defenders Peter Boulware (Michael, with Seattle), Cornell Brown (Ruben, with Buffalo), Ma’ake Kemoeatu (Chris, with Pittsburgh), Jamie Sharper (Darren, with Green Bay) and Arthur Jones (Chandler, with New England). The oldest player to ever appear in a Super Bowl was ex-Ravens kicker Matt Stover. He was with Indianapolis at the time of Super Bowl 44 (42 years, 11 days). The youngest player was Ravens running back Jamal Lewis, who was 21 years, 155 days old at Super Bowl 35.

–-Veteran referee John Parry will work his second Super Bowl as the lead official and his third overall. He was the referee at Super Bowl 46 (Patriots-Giants) and the side judge at Super Bowl 41 (Colts-Bears). The alternate will be Ron Torbert, his first Super Bowl assignment. Parry, 53, has been an NFL official for 19 years, 12 as a head referee. The other six officials on the mixed crew named to the game have a combined 94 years’ worth of NFL experience, including three Super Bowls. Retired referee Jerry Markbreit holds the record with four Super Bowl assignments. Norm Schachter, Jim Tunney, Pat Haggerty, Bob McElwee, and former Howard County high school ref Terry McAulay have done three Super Bowls each.

–-CBS will televise this year’s Super Bowl, its 20th, breaking a tie with NBC for the most Super Bowl broadcasts. The two networks each aired Super Bowl I with different announcers and camera crews. Fox has done eight Super Bowls. ABC, which is not part of the current Super Bowl telecast rotation, has shown seven. Fox will show next year’s game, which will be played February 2, 2020, at the recently-renovated Hard Rock Stadium north of Miami. The game will begin at the usual 6:30 ET time. The Super Bowl has kicked off at 6 p.m. or later (ET) each year since Super Bowl 26 (Bills-Redskins). The last Super Bowl to be played entirely in daylight was Super Bowl 11 (Vikings-Raiders) in Pasadena.

–CBS’ Jim Nantz will handle the play-by-play on his fifth Super Bowl. Last year, NBC’s Al Michaels worked his tenth Super Bowl (six with ABC, four with NBC), one short of Pat Summerall’s record of 11. Summerall did color analysis on four additional Super Bowls. Dick Enberg called eight Super Bowls, and Curt Gowdy did seven. Joe Buck has done five games, while Ray Scott and Nantz have called four Super Bowls each. Greg Gumbel and Jack Buck have each done one title game. Working the sidelines this year will be retired kicker Jay Feely (Giants, Falcons), Baltimore native Evan Washburn and Nantz’ usual partner, Tracy Wolfson. Former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo will work his first Super Bowl as a television booth analyst.

–Kevin Harlan will handle the Westwood One radio call for a ninth straight year. Harlan succeeded the legendary Marv Albert. Ex-Maryland quarterback Boomer Esiason worked with Harlan for 18 consecutive Super Bowl assignments, but Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner takes Esiason’s place this year. Warner was 1-2 in Super Bowls, splitting two as the Rams’ quarterback and losing Super Bowl 43 with Arizona.

—The highest-rated Super Bowl was 16 (49ers-Bengals), which posted a 49.1 reading for CBS. Super Bowl 10 (Cowboys-Steelers) pulled a 78 percent share, also on CBS, meaning that’s how many television sets in the country were in use for the entire game. But the highest number of average viewers were tuned in during Super Bowl 51 (Patriots-Falcons) on Fox, during which over 172 million fans watched at least a part of the broadcast. Over four million fans have watched Super Bowls in person. The largest crowd was nearly 104,000 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena to watch Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Rams (14). The smallest crowd (61,946) showed up for the first Super Bowl between Green Bay and Kansas City at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

–This year’s Super Bowl will pay out a record $118,000 per man to the winning team and $59,000 per man to the losing players. Those figures are up a respective $6,000 and $3,000 from last year. This year’s game marks the sixth straight year the payouts have increased. A 30-second advertising spot on television will cost $5.1-$5.3 million.

–The honorary coin-toss captains are unknown at this time. Last year, 15 Medal Of Honor winners–13 from the Army, two from the Navy, and two members of the Marine Corps–were involved. A veteran of the Battle of Iwo Jima tossed the coin.

–Seven-time Grammy winner Gladys Knight has been tapped to sing the national anthem. Aaron Loggins will ‘sign’ the song. “America The Beautiful” will also be performed. Knight becomes the seventh performer to do the anthem at a Super Bowl in or near her hometown and the first since “American Idol” winner Jordin Sparks, daughter of ex-Giants and Cowboys cornerback Philippi Sparks, performed at Super Bowl 42 near Phoenix.

–Pop band Maroon 5 will perform at halftime, the band’s first Super Bowl appearance. Atlanta-area rappers Big Boi and Travis Scott will play, too.

Game Prediction

For those many fans who are weary of the Patriots’ constant presence in the playoffs and Super Bowl, this year’s game might be both a blessing and a curse. The Pats are there again and they are capable of winning again, too. But it possibly could mean the last hurrah for quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick, even though there has been no indication the pair will walk away anytime soon.

They are a driven pair who have imparted their experience onto an ever-changing cast of players and coaches that have come through their program. And “experience” is the key word here, for the Rams don’t have much in the way of Super Bowl experience. New England does.

The Pats also have an unheralded offensive line that has done a masterful job, particularly down the stretch as the team has gotten hotter. It will need to be at its best against a very good Rams’ pass rush that could be neutralized by Brady’s ultra-quick release.

The Rams’ secondary has faltered despite having big names playing there. The Pats’ pass rush is average at best, but it turned up the heat in the postseason right when it was needed. Quarterback pressure could produce a key play in what could be an offensive shootout–as was the case when a Philadelphia late-fourth-quarter strip-sack of Brady decided last year’s 74-point game.

I think the game will be an entertaining, back-and-forth Super Bowl– between an experienced team and its brilliantly-weathered head coach, and a young squad with innovative leaders on the sidelines and under center.

I think that the dynastic Pats will sweat it out, but things will eventually come full circle with yet another win.

New England 31, Los Angeles 26

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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