Sunday is not the time for Baltimore to revert to a past habit, namely, playing down to the competition.
WHAT: Week 15, Game 14 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, December 16
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Buccaneers, 5-8; Ravens, 7-6
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 3-2, having won the last three meetings; in Baltimore, the teams are 1-1, with Tampa Bay shutting out the Ravens in the 2002 home opener (the last of Baltimore’s two lifetime shutout losses), and the Ravens winning, 17-10, in 2010
TV: WBFF-TV, Channel 45 (Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth, booth; Jennifer Hale, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Dennis Pitta, booth; Kirk McEwen, sidelines)
REFEREE: Ron Torbert
About the Buccaneers
—Along with the Seattle Seahawks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into the NFL as a 1976 expansion team. Assigned originally to the AFC West, the Bucs were moved to the NFC Central the following year. They stayed there until 2002 realignment when they moved to the NFC South–where they remain to this day.
–The Buccaneers have had a mostly-losing history. Their overall lifetime record of 266-421-1 is the worst among the league’s current 32 teams. The franchise lost its first 26 straight regular-season games, an NFL record, going 0-14 in 1976 and losing their first 12 games the following year before beating New Orleans. In 42 full seasons, they have made ten playoff appearances (same as Baltimore), with six division titles and four wild-card berths, but they had a 14-year playoff drought at one point, and currently, they have not made the playoffs since 2007–the year of their most recent of three NFC South titles.
–Tampa Bay has had its bright moments. They have made three NFC Championship Games, losing in 1979 to the Los Angeles Rams and in 1999 to the St. Louis Rams, but beating Philadelphia in 2002. That win put the Bucs in Super Bowl 37, where they defeated the Oakland Raiders. However, the franchise has not won a single postseason game since and is 6 – 9 lifetime in playoff games.
–When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, that team played the Buccaneers only twice (with both games at Memorial Stadium) in 1976 and 1979. The Colts easily won the first meeting but, in the second, Baltimore fumbled the ball in its territory in overtime and the Bucs kicked a field goal to win, 29-26.
–As dictated by the NFL schedule formula, the Ravens and Bucs (being in different conferences) meet only every four years. In their last meeting in Tampa, Joe Flacco threw four first-quarter touchdown passes and five in the first half as the Ravens cruised, 48-17. The Bucs’ pass defense is even worse today, having allowed the highest opponents’ completion percentage (72.8) and passer rating (112.1), as well as the second-most touchdown passes (29).
–Tampa Bay has had a streaky 2018, winning its first two games (including a road win in New Orleans), but posting losing streaks of three and four games. The team appeared to right the ship with consecutive wins over Carolina and San Francisco before losing last week’s home rematch with the Saints. The Bucs will finish the season with road games at Baltimore and Dallas, followed by a home finale against Atlanta.
–The Bucs have outscored their opposition in just one quarter this year, the third (65-59). The second quarter has proven most disastrous for this team–outscored 146-109. The team’s run-pass ratio is way out of balance, as the Bucs have run the ball 324 times and thrown it on 553 occasions (including sacks allowed). However, they have benefitted from opponents’ mistakes, having picked up 32 first downs via penalties.
—Currently, the Buccaneers’ minus-17 turnover ratio is the league’s second-worst, bottomed only by San Francisco’s minus-21. The Bucs have created only 14 turnovers and given the ball away a league-high 31 times–he only team to have committed more than 30 turnovers. That total includes 24 interceptions by their quarterbacks, the most in the league, and seven lost fumbles.
—Tampa Bay has committed 99 accepted penalties, tied for the league’s third-most, and just six more than Baltimore. The team has committed nine unnecessary roughness penalties–the most in the NFC and one less than league leader Cincinnati. The team has eight defensive pass interference calls and seven defensive holding fouls, along with 16 false starts and 17 offensive holds. Former Ravens center Ryan Jensen leads the team with nine fouls, including four for unnecessary roughness. The Bucs have dropped 13 passes, six by top receiver Mike Evans.
—Head coach Dirk Koetter (19-26) is the Bucs 11th head coach in franchise history and is in his third season with the team. He had been the team’s offensive coordinator in 2015 before being promoted the following year. He had also been the offensive coordinator in Atlanta and Jacksonville. The Bucs have had three of their four best offensive seasons in team history under Koetter. His defensive coordinator is former Maryland head coach Mark Duffner (1992-96), who had coached at Cincinnati, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Miami before joining Tampa. He was promoted from linebackers coach in October to replace the fired Mike Smith, the former Ravens assistant who is now on the Kansas City staff.
—The Buccaneers are averaging over 430 yards per game and are ranked second in total offense (27th rushing, first passing at 331 yards per game, tenth scoring) and are leading the league in first downs per game (25.2) and third-down conversion rate (48 percent). Defensively, Tampa Bay is ranked 27th in total defense (20th vs. rush, 27th vs. pass, 30th scoring, allowing 29 points per game). The red-zone defense is the league’s worst, allowing touchdowns 82 percent of the time.
–Both of Tampa Bay’s top two quarterbacks have gotten significant playing time. Currently, 2015 top overall draft pick Jameis Winston is the starter. He has played in eight games and started six, including the last four. Winston has completed 64.8 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and an 88.1 rating, and he has a 110 rating or better in three of his last four games. For his career, he has 83 touchdowns and 56 pickoffs, but those stats don’t include any games against the Ravens. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, 36, who’s on his seventh different team, has started seven games. He has 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, playing to a 100.4 rating. The combined 31 touchdown passes this season is a franchise record.
—On the ground, 2016 undrafted free agent Peyton Barber leads the Bucs with 677 yards, a 3.7 per-carry average and four of the team’s nine rushing touchdowns. But the Bucs don’t run the ball that often or that well. The two quarterbacks are second and third on the team in rushing. Barber has the team’s longest run of the year at just 28 yards, and the team is barely averaging four yards-per-carry. Former Oregon State star Jacquizz Rodgers is the primary backup. He has 29 receptions out of the backfield.
—Tampa Bay is deep at the tight end position, led by 2017 first-round pick OJ Howard, who has 34 receptions, a 16-yard average, and five touchdowns. But, lately, the real headline-maker at the position is Cameron Brate, a third-year player from Harvard, who has 25 catches and a team-high six touchdowns. His 20 career touchdowns since the start of the 2016 season are second-most in the league among tight ends over that span, trailing only Kansas City’s Travis Kelce.
–The Buccaneers have a formidable group of wideouts, a group that has contributed to seven players scoring five or more touchdowns–the 5th team in NFL history to accomplish that feat. Mike Evans has 70 catches and a 17-yard average, while Adam Humphries has 57 at an 11-yard rate. Both have five touchdowns. Chris Godwin has 50 catches for a 13-yard average, and DeSean Jackson has 40, averaging nearly 19 yards per catch. All told, Evans’ 37 career receiving touchdowns is a Tampa Bay franchise record.
—Former Ravens center Ryan Jensen signed a free-agent deal with the Bucs in the offseason. His addition moved third-year interior man Ali Marpet from center to left guard. Caleb Benenoch, a 2016 fifth-round pick, is the right guard. The real strength of the line is the tackle tandem, with 2015 third-rounder Donovan Smith on the left side. One of the longest-tenured Bucs–ten-year veteran and undrafted Demar Dotson–is on the right side. Dotson is back this year from a knee injury. However, the line has not done a good job in either run blocking or pass protection, having allowed 36 sacks.
—Tampa Bay has gotten most of its 34 sacks from its front four, an ideal situation for teams that don’t want to commit too many blitzers. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul leads the team with 11.5 sacks and opposite end Carl Nassib has 6.5. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy has another six. Via Vea is his partner in the middle. McCoy, in his ninth year, was selected to six straight Pro Bowls (2012-17). He has 48.5 career sacks, trailing only Lee Roy Selmon, Warren Sapp, and Simeon Rice in franchise history.
—Lavonte David, a 2012 second-round pick in his seventh year with the team, is one of the outside linebackers (weak-side) and the most experienced of the starting three. He leads the team in total tackles with 74 and has been a team captain for the last four years. David is the only player in NFL history to have 450 tackles, 15 sacks, and ten pickoffs over his first five seasons, Since entering the league in 2012, he is the only player with 850 tackles and 15 forced fumbles. Adarius Taylor (48 tackles, one sack) starts in the middle with Devante Bond on the other (strong) side. Backup Kwon Alexander has 45 tackles and a sack.
—Because the Buccaneers’ pass defense is poor, defensive backs are forced to make a lot of tackles. Starting safeties Jordan Whitehead and Justin Evans are second and third on the team in tackles with 50 and 43, respectively. Backup safety Andrew Adams leads the team with three of its eight interceptions. But those all came in one game–against Carolina two weeks ago. On the corners, the Bucs start Carlton Davis and 11-year veteran Brent Grimes, formerly of Atlanta and Miami, respectively.
—The Tampa Bay return game is among the league’s weakest with lead punt returner Adam Humphries averaging under seven yards per runback. He also has 12 fair catches and no return longer than 16 yards. Two different players, Dare Ogunbowale and Shaun Wilson, have run back seven kickoffs each. But neither player is averaging as much as 20 yards per return. The coverage teams aren’t bad, though. TB allows 8.3 per punt return and just over 20 on kick runbacks.
–Seventh-year punter Bryan Anger is a steady, average punter, with a 44.7 gross average and a 38.5 net reading. He has only three touchbacks in 47 punts and has placed 13 in the coffin corner. He has had one punt blocked and attempted a pass on a fake punt (incomplete). After TB waived placekicker Chandler Catanzaro (four field-goal misses, four extra-point misses), the team went with ex-Kansas City kicker Cairo Santo. Santos is 3-for-5 on field goals with misses coming inside 49 yards.
Prediction
Unlike at Kansas City, the Ravens should be able to do whatever they want in this game. That’s because the Bucs don’t stop the run very well and are abysmal against the pass. But the Ravens tend to play down to bad teams. That tendency cost them last year against the Bears and this year against Cleveland.
There’s too much on the line for the Ravens to go down that road this Sunday. To stay in the playoff race, the Ravens must win this game–and it has been considered ‘a certain win’ all year long.
Will it turn out that way? I say yes, but I also know that Baltimore can make things hard on itself. Brace yourself for a close game.
Ravens 23, Buccaneers 17
