This week’s action is full of make-or-break games.
#7 West Virginia @ Oklahoma State
Spread: West Virginia by 5
The Mountaineers have been surging since their wake-up call at ISU. But before they can think about the Playoff, WVU must go to Stillwater. How easy is that? Well, the Cowboys at home have already beaten two ranked opponents this season.
Cornelius has been on fire for OSU (photo, Tulsa World)
OSU is coming off an emotional loss to Oklahoma and is desperate to get to a bowl game. That means the Mountaineers will get everything thrown at them. Taylor Cornelius has been excellent for the ‘Pokes during the last 3 games–7 TDs, no picks, capped by a 500-yard performance against OU.
The duel between Cornelius and WVU’s Will Grier will be exciting and that means both teams will score a lot of points. I think the game will come down to who gets that key 4th-quarter stop. And, overall, WVU has been more solid defensively this year. Besides, OSU has struggled to defend the pass.
The Mountaineers will escape Stillwater … and cover the spread while they’re at it.
West Virginia 38, Oklahoma State 31
#15 Iowa State @ #14 Texas
Spread: Texas by 3
The race for 2nd place in the Big XII passes through Austin this week. It’s a pivotal top-15 matchup because each team has a chance to make the conference final–depending on who loses the OU-WVU game next week.
UT’s Sam Ehlinger has been electric (photo, Jay Janner, American-Statesman)
ISU is on a 5-game winning streak thanks balance. The Cyclones have the most efficient defense in the Big XII and they get uber-offense from QB Brock Purdy and RB David Montgomery.
The problem for the Cyclones this week is that Montgomery won’t play in the 1st half of the game (suspension due to his involvement in a fight during last week’s Baylor game). ISU needs him, too, to match up with Sam Ehlinger and his explosive Texas offense.
In fact, I think Montgomery’s absence tilts this game in the Longhorns favor. ISU’s defense will be on the field for a majority of the first half (UT is 2nd in the conference in TOP), and that will give UT a much-needed advantage.
I think Texas will cover the spread and stay alive in the Big XII race.
Texas 34, Iowa State 28
#21 Cincinnati @ #12 Central Florida
Spread: Central Florida by 7.5
The free pass is over. Finally, UCF will be challenged.
And let’s face facts: this group is nowhere close to being as good as last year’s team. The Knights have struggled defensively (90th nationally in total defense) and have survived because of good play from McKenzie Milton and an explosive offense.
UCF’s McKenzie Milton (photo, Orlando Sentinel)
But, even then, Milton et al. may have met their match against UC’s elite defense. The Bearcats’ stop troops haven’t given up more than 30 points in a game this year.
The Bearcats have problems of their own, though, especially on offense. Frosh QB, Desmond Ridder, has been less than stellar in road games this year (except v. UConn).
UC will be desperate to make a statement by winning in Orlando, but I don’t think the Bearcats have enough to prevail, especially in that hostile environment.
Cincinnati’s defense is good enough to keep this game close, but–just as it has been doing during its 22-game win streak–I expect the Knights to find a way to win.
Central Florida 31, Cincinnati 27
Arizona @ #8 Washington State
Spread: Washington State by 9.5
Wazzou has been marching steadily on the road to a Pac-12 Championship. This week WSU faces a sneaky-good Arizona team.
UA’s Tate is elusive (photo, AZ Daily Star)
On the one hand, the Wildcats don’t match up well against WSU. They’re 91st nationally in passing yards allowed and that means the ‘Cats will likely to be demolished by WSU’s offensive maestro, Gardner Minshew.
But Minshew and crew need to view Saturday as a trap game–especially with the Pac-12 North title and rival U-Dub looming on the horizon.
They can’t take UA lightly, especially with Khalil Tate at the controls. Tate poses the biggest challenge yet for WSU’s defense. And he’s why I think Arizona will make this a close game.
At issue is whether the ‘Cats have enough to pull the upset. I don’t think they will. Wazzou moves on.
Washington State 30, Arizona 24
Game of the Week
#11 Syracuse vs. #3 Notre Dame
Spread: Notre Dame by 10
Once again, Notre Dame goes on the road in November to face a ranked yet overlooked ACC team. That spelled disaster in 2017 when the Irish were demolished by Miami.
This year, ND will face a surprising Syracuse team–the best Orange squad in years–in a hyped-up game that will be played at Yankee Stadium.
SU’;s Dungey has been lighting it up (photo, Suracuse.com)
SU’s Eric Dungey leads an explosive offense which ranks 7th in scoring and is in the top 40 nationally in both passing and rushing YPG. That SU offense is well beyond anything that ND has seen all year, and I think it’s almost guaranteed that the Orange will put up more points on the Irish than anyone else has in 2018.
But Syracuse has trouble stopping other teams. SU is below-average nationally in almost every defensive category. That bodes problems against ND’s one-two punch of Ian Book and Dexter Williams.
With ND’s solid defensive and both teams fairly even offensively, I pick the Irish to win in NYC. However, given the hyped-up nature of this game (the biggest for the Orange in who-knows-how-long), I don’t see Notre Dame covering.
Notre Dame 37, Syracuse 31
