Last week’s ‘Statement Saturday’ revealed frontrunners for the Playoff. Several of those teams will be tested again this week.
#13 Fresno State @ Boise State
Spread: Fresno State by 2.5
FSU is a leading alternative to UCF in the New Year’s Six bowl picture. The Bulldogs have dominated opponents since losing to Minnesota. But hated Boise State, a team that’s on a 4- game winning streak, stands in the way.
Courtesy: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
The key to an FSU win is whether its defense can handle Boise’s pass-heavy offense. The rushing game appears to be a wash: neither team runs the ball particularly well and both are dead-even in rushing yards allowed per game.
So I think this game will be settled on pass defense. I predict FSU will be able to move the ball against BSU’s mediocre pass D. The ‘Dogs dominant defense will do the job on the other side of the ball.
Look for Fresno to get a 4th quarter stop and win by a field goal.
Fresno State 27, Boise State 24
#11 Ohio State @ #22 Michigan State
Spread: Ohio State by 3.5
Michigan State has been playing better since losing to Michigan–allowing only an average of 11 ppg. v. Penn State, Purdue, and Maryland.
MSU’s defense v. Maryland (photo, Lansing State Journal)
Ohio State, on the other hand, hasn’t looked this vulnerable since early 2014. The Bucks were blown out by Purdue and played sloppily against 2-6 Nebraska. None of OSU’s wins (save against PSU) have impressed.
But the stats suggest that OSU’s Dwayne Haskins should have a field day against Sparty’s poor passing defense. Haskins will need to do that for Ohio to win. That’s because these Buckeyes don’t run the ball especially well and MSU has the top rushing defense in the nation. OSU could end up as a one-dimensional team.
With the home crowd on its side and Ohio State looking beatable, I predict that State (Michigan, that is) will pull out a win. And that outcome will knock the Bucks out of the Playoff.
Michigan State 24, Ohio State 23
#8 Washington State @ Colorado
Spread: Washington State by 6
It’s crunch time for the ‘Cougs! WSU is in a position to make the Playoff–should others slip up. But, first, CU is on tap in Boulder.
WSU’s Mike Leach (photo, spokesman.com)
The story going into this game is this: the Flying Leach’s are high. The Buffalos are not.
CU is on a 4-game losing streak after starting the season 5-0. And they’re losing to seemingly inferior foes, too–the likes of Oregon State and Arizona. And now–after having given up over 640 passing yards in the last two games–the ‘Buffs must face the nation’s top passing offense with Heisman candidate Gardner Minshew.
Wazzou has a clear offensive advantage and also ranks solidly in passing yards allowed. Those are two reasons why I like the ‘Cougs to cover.
Washington State 31, Colorado 17
#17 Mississippi State @ #1 Alabama
Spread: Alabama by 25
The rejuvenated Bulldogs will have their newly found optimism extinguished. That’s one way to describe the likely outcome of playing ‘Bama.
When you play ‘Bama, you go up against legends (photo, AL.com)
MSU relies on its rushing attack, but that’s an area (among many) in which the Tide excels (11th nationally in rushing defense). But at issue is whether ‘Bama be able to move the ball per its custom. Last week, in his first real test against LSU, ‘Tua completed about 60% of his passes with two TDs and a pick. Those aren’t terrible stats, but the Bulldogs are better than LSU–7th nationally in passing yards allowed, 4th in passing efficiency defense, and 2nd in scoring defense.
That means ‘Tua will be tested again. But even with that said–including Nick Fitzgerald’s elevated play in recent weeks–I just don’t think State has enough firepower to keep up with Bama’s explosiveness.
I’m anticipating a score that I’ll just call “Bama-esque.” Make it …
Alabama 28, Mississippi State 6
Game of the Week
#2 Clemson @ #15 Boston College
Spread: Clemson by 20
Clemson will be tested on the road against BC in a battle for the O’Rourke-McFadden Trophy. And while just about everybody expected the Tigers to be where they are at this time of the season, but few imagined that the Eagles would be this good.
Can BC Hold That Tiger? (photo, College Football News)
In fact, there are national implications if (somehow) BC could pull out a win. If Purdue and NC State (the two teams that beat BC) win out, and Purdue goes to the B1G championship, could these Eagles be in Playoff contention?
But getting there is a stretch. Yes, BC has a strong rushing game (headed by AJ Dillon), but Clemson is 6th-best nationally in stopping the run. On the other side, CU has a tremendous running back in Travis Etienne, who spearheads the 7th-best rushing offense. The Eagles, on the other hand, are just a little above average in stopping the run at 55th nationally.
Boston College is a solid team with a home-field advantage in a night game. Despite those positives, the Eagles just don’t have what it takes to defeat Clemson. BC might keep the Tigers from winning by twenty, but the final margin will still read ‘L.’
Clemson 31, Boston College 17
