NFL Week 9: Ravens-Steelers Prediction

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The pressure on the Ravens–playoff absentees in four of the past five years–is intense.


WHAT: Week Nine vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, November 4
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Steelers, 4-2-1; Ravens, 4-4
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Steelers lead, 24-21, and have won three of the last four meetings; in Baltimore, the Ravens lead, 12-10, and have won five of the last seven home meetings
TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, booth; Evan Washburn, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Jarret Johnson, booth; Kirk McEwen, sidelines)
REFEREE: Craig Wrolstad

About the Steelers

Pittsburgh is the opponent the Ravens have played more than any other in Baltimore’s 23-season history. This Sunday’s game will mark the 50th lifetime meeting between the teams (including postseason); the Ravens have played Cincinnati 45 times and Cleveland on 39 occasions. When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they met the Steelers 11 times (including postseason), with Pittsburgh winning eight, including a 4-2 record in Baltimore.

Historically, the Steelers franchise has had a contrasting dual identity. From 1933-1971 Pittsburgh had only eight winning seasons out of its first 39 with one playoff appearance. Since then, it has added 30 playoff appearances (the total of 31 is the league’s second-highest), with 23 division crowns, the league’s third-most. Since the AFC North was established in 2002, the Steelers have the most titles in that division (eight). Baltimore and Cincinnati have four each and Cleveland has none.

Pittsburgh’s eight Super Bowl appearances are tied for the second-most all-time with Dallas and Denver, and two behind record-holder New England. The Steelers’ six Super Bowl championships are one better than the five each won by Dallas, San Francisco, and New England. Pittsburgh has made 16 appearances in the conference title game, an AFC record and tied with Dallas for third-most all-time behind the New York Giants (19) and Green Bay (17).

This Sunday’s game breaks a string of three times in four years that the return match will have been played at Heinz Field. It will also mark the fifth-earliest date that the two-game season series will end, having concluded as early as Oct. 18 (2000) in the past.

A total of 17 of the team’s 45 regular-season meetings have been shown in prime time. The Ravens have registered three sweeps of Pittsburgh (’06, ’11, ’15), while the Steelers have five sweeps (’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ‘17). There have been 14 splits and Pittsburgh has won three of four postseason meetings.

The history of this rivalry has been enriched by the number of close games that have resulted. The Ravens and Steelers have played to one-score margins in 17 of their last 22 regular-season meetings, dating back to December, 2007. Overall, 13 of the last 21 regular-season meetings between these two teams have been decided by three or fewer points–the most by any pair of teams, outdistancing Dallas-Washington and San Francisco-St. Louis/Los Angeles (eight each). In the last 26 meetings before this season, the Ravens and Steelers had 13 wins each, with Baltimore holding a ten-point edge (546-536).

This year’s Steelers got off to a 1-2-1 start, but have won three straight and four of five coming into Baltimore, beating Atlanta at home, winning at Cincinnati and topping visiting Cleveland. Pittsburgh is beginning a stretch of three of its next four games on the road, also traveling to Jacksonville and Denver. The first three games in that run are taking place over a 14-day period, including a Thursday-night home game against Carolina.

As was the case before their first meeting with the Ravens, Pittsburgh still leads the league in penalties, having committed 66 (Baltimore’s 57 penalties are fifth-most). The Steelers’ 588 penalty yards are also the NFL’s highest total. Pittsburgh’s ten offensive holding calls make it one of eight teams to have ten or more in that department. Yet, the Steelers have not been called once for offensive pass interference or illegal contact on defense all season. Linebacker Bud Dupree leads the team with five penalties and cornerback Artie Burns has four; no one else has more than three.

The Steelers are having trouble taking care of the football, sporting a minus-3 turnover ratio, one better than Baltimore’s minus-4. Like the Ravens, they have only five interceptions on defense, but have picked off only one pass over their last four games. The Steelers have 11 fumbles, four fewer than all of last season. The slow starts that plagued the Steelers early in the season have continued; the team has only 19 first-quarter points. However, they have accumulated a 94-20 second-quarter advantage. In the fourth, opponents are outscoring the Steelers, 64-44.

Through seven games, the Steelers are ranked fourth in total offense (23rd rushing, second passing, fifth scoring). They are second in the league in in red-zone touchdown rate, and have risen from 24th to tenth in third-down conversions since their first meeting with the Ravens. Defensively, Pittsburgh is ranked 15th overall (sixth vs. rush, 24th vs. pass, 15th scoring). The Steelers are tied for tenth in allowing third-down conversions, but are 17th in the red zone.

Twelfth-year head coach Mike Tomlin is the 16th head coach in Steelers’ history, but only the third since 1969. He has an overall record of 128-69-1 (.649), the second-best percentage among active coaches (Bill Belichick). He reached the playoffs four times in his first five seasons and became the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl (36) when his team beat Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII. Tomlin used to be well-known for going for two-point conversions; the Steelers converted a league-record-high eight of them in 2015 and are 3-for-3 this year. Sunday’s game in Baltimore will mark his 199th game in charge of the Steelers (including postseason).

Starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, now in his 15th season, made his debut off the bench in Baltimore in 2004, when he replaced Tommy Maddox. The two-time Super Bowl champion has 139 wins, the seventh-most in NFL history by a starting quarterback. Through seven games, he has completed 65.3 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Roethlisberger is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt and has been sacked just ten times, working out to a passer rating of 94.5. His 327.1 yards per game is second-most in the league. He is 12-10 against the Ravens, with 34 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions. Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs has sacked Roethlisberger 17 times, more than any other opponent.

Top receiver Antonio Brown has led the Steelers in receiving in three of the team’s last four games with 17 catches and five touchdowns, but caught just five passes against the Ravens when the teams met in Week Four. Brown is the fifth player since the 1970 merger to have eight touchdown catches for six straight years (Rice, Harrison, Carter, Gates). With 46 catches, Brown is tied with second-year slot receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, who scored in Baltimore last year, for the team lead. Running back James Conner (31 catches) and tight end Vance McDonald (23) are both averaging ten yards per reception. Tight end Jesse James (19) and slot receiver Ryan Switzer (13) each have a touchdown.

-With no sign of workhorse back Le’Veon Bell returning anytime soon, University of Pittsburgh product Conner has posted three straight 100-yard games coming into Baltimore, with a stellar 146-yard effort against Cleveland last week. Although Conner has fumbled three times, he is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has accumulated 599 yards with nine touchdowns and seven rushes of 20 or more yards. However, the Steelers rushed for 19 yards as a team in the first meeting with the Ravens as they struggled to find their footing without Bell. At this juncture, no other Steeler has more than 15 carries.

–The Steelers’ offensive line has allowed only ten quarterback sacks through seven games and has gotten better at run blocking despite its penalty problems. The unit had great cohesion until right tackle Marcus Gilbert missed last week’s game against Cleveland with a knee injury. Pennsylvania native Matt Feiler filled in for Gilbert, whose availability for Sunday is questionable. Right guard David DeCastro is a three-time Pro Bowl pick and a two-time All-Pro. Left guard Ramon Foster went undrafted, but he is in his ninth year as a starter. Center Maurkice Pouncey hasn’t missed a game since 2015 and left tackle Alejandro Villanueva is an Army veteran who is tough and dependable. Gilbert has been a starter since 2011.

–The Steelers’ defensive line heads up a unit that is second in the league with 24 sacks (Baltimore leads with 27). Pittsburgh has also allowed just four rushing touchdowns. Third-year nose tackle Javon Hargrave (three sacks) is listed as the starter in the middle of the defensive line, but he can be moved around in sub-packages as well. The real playmakers up front are Cameron Heyward (13 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Stephon Tuitt (16, two), recipient of a big offseason contract renewal. Heyward is one of the best pass-rushing down linemen in the league; he had 12 sacks last year and, in his last five games against the Ravens, has three sacks, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Tuitt seems better suited to the Steelers’ new one-gap style, a more aggressive scheme that puts more pressure on quarterbacks.

-Outside linebacker TJ Watt leads a multi-faceted pass rush with a team-high seven sacks and 26 solo tackles; he is the younger brother of Houston Texans standout JJ Watt. On the other side is Bud Dupree (three sacks), a draft pick out of Kentucky (and a teammate of Ravens linebacker Za’Darius Smith), who flies to the ball and ran back an interception for a score against Tampa Bay. The inside lost its leader when Ryan Shazier (paralysis) had to retire, but former Colts free agent Jon Bostic (25 solo tackles, second on the team) was acquired to team with Vince Williams, who surprised observers last year with eight sacks and has 23 solo stops this year.

–Pittsburgh has tried desperately to revamp a leaky secondary, letting three players leave in the offseason and drafting Virginia Tech’s Terrell Edmunds in the first round. But Edmunds, for now, is a backup safety to listed starters Morgan Burnett, a former Green Bay Packer, and Sean Davis (Maryland). Prince Georges County native Joe Haden had a bounce-back year at corner, and he and 2016 first-rounder Artie Burns will be the starters. Pittsburgh is counting on this group to make plays, as Burns had just one pickoff last year.

–The Steelers’ special-teams unit made a very underrated free-agent pickup when it acquired second-year returner and former Dallas Cowboy draft pick Ryan Switzer. He has averaged 11 yards per punt return and almost 20 per kickoff runback. The kick-coverage team started out well but has slipped and is now allowing over 21 yards per return. On the other hand, punt coverage has improved, yielding ten yards per attempt, down five yards since their first game against the Ravens.

Veteran placekicker Chris Boswell, the AFC’s Pro Bowl kicker last year, has fallen victim to the leaguewide kicking slump. He is one of the rare kickers who does not lead his team in scoring; he is third with 38 points. He has already missed three extra points this season and is just 6-for-9 on field-goal tries. Boswell has three misses between 40 and 49 yards and hasn’t even tried a kick from beyond 50 yards. However, Boswell is the Steelers’ all-time leading scorer, and set team records last year for field goals and points. Fourth-year punter Jordan Berry is average at best, netting over 38 yards per punt and putting 14 of 33 inside the coffin corner.

Prediction

When these two teams met in Week Four, it was the visiting Ravens that came in with more momentum and ended up winning. Now they clash in Baltimore with the Steelers trending upward and the Ravens reeling.

It’s the golden-anniversary (50th) meeting between the teams. The pressure on the Ravens–playoff absentees in four of the past five years–is intense. With a bye week looming, the Ravens need to make a brave last stand with the franchise’s uncertain future coming into play.

Baltimore 26, Pittsburgh 23

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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