I see the Bengals winning no matter who the Ravens play at QB.
WHAT: Week 11, Game 10 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, November 18
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Bengals, 5-4; Ravens, 4-5
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Bengals lead, 23-22; in Baltimore, the Ravens are 14-8 against Cincinnati, but have lost three of the last four home meetings
TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon, booth; Steve Tasker, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Dennis Pitta, booth; Kirk McEwen, sidelines)
REFEREE: Walt Coleman
About the Bengals
—Cincinnati will wear white jerseys and black pants for their 2018 return intradivisional match at Baltimore. Since the team redesigned its jerseys at the start of the 2004 season, this combination has produced the second-worst record among the seven possible combinations the Bengals wear. Cincinnati is 28-31 (.475) in the white-black combo.
—The Bengals were born in 1968 as an American Football League expansion franchise and are currently playing in their 51st season. In their first season in the AFC after the 1970 merger, the Bengals made the playoffs but lost in the Divisional round at Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium, 17-0.
—Cincinnati’s record would give it the sixth and final AFC playoff seed if the postseason began today. The Bengals franchise has appeared in the playoffs 14 times in 50 years, including nine division titles–four since the AFC North was formed in 2002. They have played in two Super Bowls (XVI, XXIII), losing both to the San Francisco 49ers, but haven’t won a postseason game since 1990 despite a franchise-record five straight playoff berths from 2011-15.
—This will mark the second straight season the second Ravens-Bengals game is in Charm City. That partially reverses a string of six straight years that has seen the return match played in Cincinnati. The Ravens have swept the head-to-head series six times (none since 2011), while the Bengals have also recorded six sweeps. There have been ten splits. Overall, Cincinnati has won eight of its last ten meetings with the Ravens and leads the overall series against Baltimore for the first time since 1998, when it was 3-2.
—An active NFL roster contains 53 players, a noteworthy number since that’s how many Bengals draft picks are currently on NFL rosters, the most in the league. The Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are tied for second in this category with 47.
—This year’s Bengals got off to a 4-1 start, a streak that included a 34-23 win over Baltimore in the Week Two home opener. But Cincinnati has lost three of four games since then, including last week’s 51-14 blowout home loss to New Orleans coming out of the bye week. The Bengals are currently in a stretch that sees them play three home games in a four-week span; they go home to play Cleveland and Denver after facing Baltimore.
–Sometimes, this team is a study in extremes. The Bengals are 0-2 on grass, having lost at Carolina and Kansas City. However, they are 3-0 when leading at the half, 3-0 when leading after three quarters and 3-0 when winning the turnover battle. Cincinnati is 4-1 when rushing for 100 yards as a team and 3-1 with fewer penalty yards.
–The Bengals have suffered most in the second quarters of games, having allowed 140 second-quarter points this year. They haven’t helped themselves in the third quarter, either, having scored only 27 points themselves. Cincinnati has allowed a staggering 34 touchdowns through ten games, including 21 of them through the air (Baltimore has allowed 18 total touchdowns).
–The Bengals are last in the AFC in average possession time (26:53), bottomed leaguewide only by Arizona (25:58). Cincinnati has won the possession stat in only three of its nine total games this year, with its season high against the Ravens (31:50).
—Cincinnati has committed 55 accepted penalties in ten games, tied with the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia for the league’s sixth-fewest and seven fewer penalties than Baltimore. The Bengals have six unnecessary-roughness penalties, tied for the second-most, and have 11 each in the offensive holding and false-start categories. They also have five defensive holding penalties. Guard Alex Redmond leads the team with six penalties, five of them holding calls.
—The Bengals currently sport a rather modest plus-2 turnover ratio after finishing deep in the red last season. However, the team has recovered only three of its nine opponents’ fumbles this season while giving away only one of five fumbles themselves. The Bengals have intercepted ten passes on defense and have thrown ten of them on offense. Cincinnati has been marked for 16 dropped passes, third-most in the league; running back Joe Mixon has a team-high five and receiver AJ Green has four.
—Former Ravens’ defensive coordinator and Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is in his 16th season at the helm, second in NFL head-coaching seniority, which is next to the New England Patriots’ Bill Belichick (19). Lewis, who worked in Baltimore from 1996-2001, took Cincinnati to the playoffs for a franchise-record five straight seasons (2011-15) and is the winningest coach in team history (130-116-3, .528 regular season, 0-7 postseason). Lewis is 19-12 against Baltimore.
—Notable coaching-staff hires under Lewis include several former members of the Ravens. The list: strength/conditioning coaches Chip Morton, defensive coordinator, Jeff Friday and defensive line coach Jacob Burney. Lewis has recently re-assumed the defensive coordinator duties in place of the fired Teryl Austin, who was a defensive coordinator in Detroit after coaching the Ravens’ defensive backs.
—The Bengals are ranked 25th in total offense (25th rushing, 21st passing, 11th scoring) and are tied for second in the red zone, scoring touchdowns at a 77.8 percent rate. Defensively, Cincinnati has allowed an unprecedented 500 or more yards in its last three games and 484 the week before that. Overall, the team is ranked 32nd and last in total defense (31st vs. rush, 32nd vs. pass, 31st scoring, allowing 32 points per game). The team is last in third-down defense (56.2 percent) and its red-zone defense (68.6 percent touchdowns allowed) is the league’s seventh-worst.
–-Eighth-year quarterback Andy Dalton played well against the Ravens in the Week Two win, completing 24 of 42 passes for 265 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions (107.7 rating). The three-time Pro Bowl pick regressed somewhat last year, completing 60.6 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and 12 pickoffs, but this year, he is up to 63.1 percent completions with 18 scores and ten interceptions. Against the Ravens, he is 8-6 with a career rating of 76.9, and his 17 career pickoffs against the Ravens–including four in a Week One shutout loss at home last year–are his most against any team. In his past five games against the AFC North, he has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions.
—Cincinnati’s ground game needed to be rejuvenated, and, despite a low number of carries, it has been with a 4.6-yards-per-carry average with eight scores after rating 3.5 yards-per-carry last year with a paltry six rushing touchdowns. It is led by second-year workhorse back Joe Mixon, who was slowed in 2017 by an ankle problem and a concussion–not to mention poor blocking. Mixon has 570 yards and is averaging nearly five yards-per-carry with four rushing touchdowns. He has carried the ball 116 times, while no one else on the roster has more than 36 attempts.
—Standout receiver AJ Green had not hurt the Ravens much recently before scion three touchdowns in Week Two. But Green will miss this game with a toe injury after sitting out the final six weeks of 2016 with a hamstring injury and not playing against Baltimore in either meeting that year. Behind Green, Tyler Boyd has taken over the team lead with 52 catches, a 13-yard average, and five touchdowns. Mixon and Bernard have respectively caught 21 and 16 passes and tight end CJ Uzomah has hauled in 20 receptions and two touchdowns as he fills in for Tyler Eifert, who will miss the rest of the season. Second-year speedster John Ross has caught only nine passes, but three of them have gone for scores.
—The Bengals’ offensive line attempted to get younger in the offseason, but couldn’t pass on a veteran. The team swung a trade with Buffalo for seven-year left tackle Cordy Glenn, who missed ten games with injuries last year. Ex-New York Giant Bobby Hart is the new right tackle and he can also play guard. Redmond, a second-year right guard, has phenomenal strength; and veteran left guard Clint Boling, who has a nagging back injury, is the last offensive lineman left from the last Bengals’ playoff team (2015). Rookie center Billy Price (Ohio State) got injured at the scouting combine (pectoral), but after healing, won the starting job before getting hurt and losing it to Trey Hopkins, previously the line’s top backup. Last year Hopkins got called for just one false start and one hold. The line has allowed 20 quarterback sacks.
—Defensively, Cincinnati gets a great push from its 4-3 defensive line, but the team fell out of the top ten in scoring defense for the first time since 2014 and has faltered in stopping the run this year; they allowed 66 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week Two. Six-time Pro Bowl pick Geno Atkins is the best interior pass rusher in the league with 18 sacks over the past two seasons and six sacks this year, including two against Baltimore in Week Two; he leads the line with 29 total tackles. But Atkins’ sack total is second on the team to the seven accumulated by edge rusher Carlos Dunlap, who has three sacks in his past five games against Baltimore. Michael Johnson, who hurt his knee against the Ravens in Week Two, can play inside or outside and Andrew Billings is a third-year nose tackle.
—At the second (linebacker) level, Cincinnati dipped into the free-agent market to sign former Buffalo Bills veteran Preston Brown. His presence came in handy earlier this season with Vontaze Burfict suspended and currently injured, having missed the last two weeks (hip). Burfict hasn’t completed a full season since 2013, but Brown has 42 tackles, two interceptions, and four pass breakups. Third-year outside backer Nick Vigil is third on the team with 51 tackles, 41 of them as solo stops. Veteran Vincent Rey backs up Vigil and still contributes on special teams. Rey led the team with 84 tackles last year.
—The Bengals wanted to create more turnovers with their secondary, and safeties Shawn Williams and Jessie Bates, the latter a second-round rookie, have each intercepted three passes. Bates leads the team with 71 tackles and Williams is second with 55, and the pair has broken up nine passes between them. Bates had his first career pickoff against the Ravens in Week Two. That squad produced only eight interceptions two seasons ago and had just 11 last year–with one pickoff by seven different players. Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson are the starting corners, but starting slot corner Darqueze Dennard will miss the Baltimore game with a shoulder injury, his fourth straight absent game.
—Kicker Randy Bullock has missed a conversion kick this year, but is 9-for-11 on field goals and has an active streak of six straight successful kicks. Against the Ravens in Week Two, he hit a 55-yard field goal. Punter Kevin Huber has put 19 of his 37 punts in the coffin corner with just one touchback. However, his net average is over 38 yards per punt, down two yards from last year’s Pro Bowl season.
–The Bengals’ coverage teams have been a bit below average, allowing ten yards per punt return and nearly 26 on kick runbacks, including a 71-yard touchdown. Cincinnati third-year returner Alex Erickson has greatly improved on punt returns, pushing his average up past nine yards per runback this year; he is averaging over 26 yards per kickoff return.
Prediction
The Ravens have been playing their usual bit of gamesmanship this week, keeping Cincinnati guessing as to whether Joe Flacco (hip injury) or Lamar Jackson will get the start at quarterback. But at this point in the season, it doesn’t seem to matter. The Ravens’ offense has again stagnated and its defense is starting to show the signs of a unit having to be on the field too long.
Add to that the Bengals’ recent success against the Ravens. Even Cincinnati’s porous defense, which prompted a coordinator change this week, isn’t as much of an issue as it could have been.
Bengals 23, Ravens 13
