Kyler Murray Is Overhyped

Here’s why the OU quarterback shouldn’t be considered this year’s #1 playmaker.

College football gives players the opportunity to display skills that sometimes aren’t seen in the pros. And that often gives players under center the allusion that they have the ability to do whatever they want offensively. With wide-open offenses, video game-like performances are more common these days.

One of those players is Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray. A dual-sport phenom, he was able to showcase his skills on the gridiron and even on the gridiron during college. His gifted speed and incredible throwing power enable him to be a star in both sports.

Murray has kept OU football on the national stage. His skills and cerebral capacity has him considered as one of the top quarterbacks in the nation. As of November 8th, 2018, Murray has thrown for 2,689 yards with 31 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Averaging fourteen yards per pass attempt is incredible, even with college standards.

But we’ve seen this before. For example, former Louisville and Heisman winner, Lamar Jackson, put up astronomical numbers. Here’s a comparison between Murray and Jackson. (Note: These are Jackson’s averaged totals for all seasons he played v. Murray’s numbers from the 2018 campaign.)

Jackson: 2,413 yards, 7 touchdowns, 6 INTs, passer rating of 146.9

Murray:  2,689 yards, 31 touchdowns, 5 INTs, passer rating of 184.

The numbers are very similar, except for TDs. Murray’s Sooners include many talented receivers, which means more opportunities to go deep.

And that’s always a problem when the data set includes only one year of play. That’s is why I have a problem in pronouncing Murray as ‘the best in his class.’

Before 2018, Murray was a mediocre quarterback at Texas A&M. Why is he excelling now? It’s the OU system and OU’s Lincoln Riley ability to transform players into stars. Just look what he did with Mayfield, a two-time walk-on, who now starts for the Cleveland Browns. 

Kyler Murray run (photo, si.com)

For sure, there’s a lot to like when you look at Murray from a physical standpoint. He can run outside and create plays with his feet. His arm strength is an asset. Big-time heaves are a regular occurrence.

But then there’s Murray’s Achilles Heel–height, at 5’11.” Then there’s his short and quirky windup, which will need to be modified to counter his height disadvantage.

Perhaps the biggest challenge for Murray’s pro chances is the comparisons he’ll likely render to similarly successful college QBs that had trouble making it in the pros, guys like EJ Manuel, Brett Hundley, and Geno Smith. Those playmakers had skills on the ground and in the air, but the NFL requires more and that involves being able to solve complicated defenses. 

From Andre Ware to Tim Tebow there have been players who were able to create magical moments in the college level, only for that magic to disappear when it came to the NFL.

That very well may be Kyler Murray’s future. He has benefitted by being with the right conference, team, and coach–all at the right time. 

My take? I don’t see Murray anywhere close to being a 1st Round draft talent. Yes, he has been a flashy passer and able runner in college, but I don’t think those skills–alone–will translate into success for him at the next level.