Last week’s mark–10-5–upped my season record to 61%.
It’s birthday week. On Saturday I’ll blow out another set of candles. I have something to celebrate, too–a 10-5 record last week. To boot, I almost hit the Houston-Tennessee score right on the nose, and I nailed my high school bonus pick. The week upped my season mark to 106-68-2 (.608).
I’m also thankful that the bye weeks are over. It’s nothing but full 16-game slates the rest of the way.
(NOTE: All games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.)
Dallas 30, New Orleans 26 (Thursday night): Sure, the Saints are the NFC’s – and league’s – best team at this point. But they can afford some wiggle room with a loss. Besides, the Cowboys’ division is weak (only the first-place team will make the playoffs). Dallas has looked good lately, but they need this one badly–and they need it more than the Saints.
Atlanta 27, Baltimore 16: While Ravens’ fans are optimistic after two straight wins keyed by Lamar Jackson, his style of quarterbacking isn’t a sustainable model for long-term success. A healthy Joe Flacco might get the start anyway. The Ravens, traditionally poor on the road, haven’t faced a team with this many weapons in about a month.
Denver 23, Cincinnati 13: Earlier this year, I would have been inclined to take the host Bengals in this spot. But Denver’s defense has come alive, and the Bengals’ are fading. The Broncos should be able to claim another AFC North Division scalp after beating Pittsburgh last week–just as I predicted they would.
Houston 34, Cleveland 16: Surprisingly, the Browns have notched four wins this year–one more than I thought they would get all year. But they shouldn’t be so giddy. They enter a stretch of games playing teams hungry for a playoff spot–better teams, too–including the host Texans, winners of eight straight.
Los Angeles Rams 37, Detroit 17: The Lions’ fans have seen plenty of visiting teams come through Ford Field and on Sunday they’ll see another. The Rams are another prime example.
Green Bay 26, Arizona 13: In recent weeks, picking the Packers hasn’t served me well. But GB returns to nearly-impenetrable Lambeau Field to face the sorry Cardinal. I’ll pick the Pack one more time.
Indianapolis 31, Jacksonville 17: It’s an astonishing story–the Jaguars’ fall from grace, that is. Yes, they’re back at home for a division game, but it’s against the red-hot Colts–a team that’s in contention for a wild-card spot. Jags’ fans might as well spend this game at the stadium’s swimming pool.
Miami 23, Buffalo 20: This is one of the toughest games of the week to pick, but it’s not because these teams are burning up the standings whether home or away, Miami finds a way to lose. Buffalo either gets blown out or springs a surprise nobody expects. At least Miami plays close games. I’ll take the Dolphins.
Chicago 27, New York Giants 17: The Giants looked primed for a good stretch run, but then blew a 16-point lead to the Eagles on the road. Now they go home to face a Bears squad that’s defying the odds and gunning for a high playoff seed. Yes, the Bears!
Carolina 33, Tampa Bay 24: The Panthers lost a key NFC tiebreaker game to Seattle last week, so they need every win they can get to make the playoffs–especially in the NFC South. They go on the road to face a high-scoring Tampa Bay outfit, whose myriad of weapons should be held in check by the visitors.
Kansas City 40, Oakland 10: The Chiefs come off their bye following that exhausting, thrilling game in Los Angeles. Now they head back to the West Coast to take on the Raiders. There won’t be a lot of thrills in this one.
Tennessee 31, New York Jets 13: You sometimes don’t know what you’re going to get from the Titans. Tennessee is one of the league’s most inconsistent teams. But you can expect nothing but haplessness from the woebegone Jets.
New England 24, Minnesota 20: The Patriots had a surprisingly tough time putting away the Jets last week, but they eventually took care of business. Now they go home to face a resurgent Vikings squad that’s looking to snag an NFC playoff berth. I’d pick the Vikings if the game were in Minneapolis. It isn’t, so I won’t.
Seattle 27, San Francisco 10: When 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt, the Niners weren’t such a national draw anymore. On top of that, Seattle revived its playoff fortunes with a tough win in Carolina. Seahawks get the nod.
Pittsburgh 30, Los Angeles Chargers 20 (Sunday night): This game was a great choice to be flexed into the prime-time slot. The usual disadvantage–facing a West Coast team traveling east–has been wiped away by the later start time. That means this would be a close, even battle between two playoff contenders. The Steelers are coming off a loss at Denver, and they’ll get revenge on the AFC West.
Philadelphia 23, Washington 13 (Monday night): The Redskins’ prime-time record is bad enough, but they’re in the midst of their annual, predictable free-fall. And, on top of everything else, they’re on the road. The Eagles showed a lot of heart coming back to beat the Giants last week. Washingon doesn’t have a chance.
