It’s Conference Championship Week and playoff hopes hang in the balance.
#20 Utah vs. #9 Washington
Spread: Washington by 5
The Pac-12 Championship will be a rematch of an early-season game (Huskies won, 21-7).
Will Jason Shelley be able to propel Utah over the Huskies? (photo, Deseret News)
Last week, Washington proved that a healthy Myles Gaskin is a threat offensively. It’s doubtful that the Utes will be able to stop UW’s attack entirely. To be fair, Utah has held all opponents–except one, Arizona State–to under 30 points.
On offense, backup Freshman QB Jason Shelley has done a pretty good job replacing Tyler Huntley. Against BYU last week he was 19-of-28 and rushed for over 60 yards.
The challenge, though, is that Washington’s defense is elite, ranked 8th nationally in scoring defense and the top-20 in rushing D. With Zack Moss out, it’s doubtful that Utah will be able to run effectively and that means Shelley will face 3rd-and-long situations.
I predict that Browning and Gaskin will eventually wear down Utah’s defense. UDub will cover.
Washington 24, Utah 14
#10 Texas vs. #6 Oklahoma
Spread: Oklahoma by 7.5
Here’s another regular season rematch. The ‘Horns won the first clash in a 48-45 shootout. The replay also means that Kyler Murray (OU) and Sam Ehlinger (UT) get to go after each other one more time.
UT’s Sam Ehlinger needs to play his best against OU (photo, Jay Janner/AMERICAN-STATESMAN)
Murray continues to be the sport’s biggest playmaker. He’ll need to play as he did against WVIU if the Sooners are to exact revenge. Ehlinger, on the hand, can’t afford to play as he did last week against KU. I expect the urgency of the situation to elevate his play–perhaps even above where it was when UT played OU in October.
But perhaps the deciding factor for UT in this game is defense. To win, they’ll need to keep the Sooners under 50–and I think they’ve tightened up enough defensively to do just that. Witness the fact that their last two opponents (ISU and KU) scored under 20 points.
Those who follow the Big 12 know that OU brings out the best in Texas. Nonetheless, Oklahoma has been unstoppable offensively. And that doesn’t just mean the Sooners will keep doing what they’ve been doing. Expect OU to make adjustments to keep the ‘Horns off-balance.
As for who’ll win … I’ll take the score from the first meeting but flip the teams.
Oklahoma 48, Texas 45
Memphis @ #7 Central Florida
Spread: Central Florida by 3.5
If UCF has any hope of going to the CFP (should chaos result in other games), they must defeat Memphis once again — a team they beat by only one point in October. And they must do it without star QB McKenzie Milton.
It won’t be easy. First, UCF will need to contain an offense that ranks 6th nationally in both total and scoring offense. Second, in Darrell Henderson, UM has the 2nd-most-productive running back in the country. And, third, the Tigers have a top-15 quarterback in Brady White.
QB Darriel Mack will need to stand tall v. Memphis (photo, 24/7 Sports)
Even with all that, I still believe the Knights can win this game. Darriel Mack Jr. did a good job against USF when he took the reins after Milton’s injury. He can run, too, averaging over five yards-per-carry in the last two games.
To boot, UCF has the #6-ranked rushing offense–with prolific runners, like Greg McCrae and Taj McGowan. So I expect the offense to be productive, perhaps just as productive as it was under Milton.
Although I think this will be a close game, UCF has too much going for it, including a home field advantage. Look for UCF to edge out Memphis once again.
Central Florida 34, Memphis 31
#21 Northwestern vs. #5 Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State by 14.5
The Buckeyes impressed everyone with the beatdown of Michigan. Now they face a resilient NU squad, that few people thought would be playing for the Big Ten crown.
The main problem for OSU is defense. Even in the blowout win over the Wolverines, Ohio State allowed almost 40 points and gave up over 400 yards. Ohio State isn’t exceptional at defending the run, and NU’s freshman RB Isaiah Bowser has rushed for over 160 yards in two of his last three games.
NU’s Thorson is a master of the spread offense (photo, WOWT.com)
The Bucks won’t be able to rely on intimidation, either. That’s because the ‘Cats have played two titans–Michigan and Notre Dame–and stayed within 10 points of each team.
QB Clayton Thorson and Bowser will challenge OSU’s defense and, if they do, NU should score at least 30 points. At issue is how many points OSU will put on the board. And make no mistake about it: Dwayne Haskins has been incredible lately.
I expect this game to be close–closer than most people expect and the Vegas guys predict. Northwestern isn’t a team to take lightly.
Ohio State 38, Northwestern 30
GAME OF THE WEEK
#1 Alabama vs. #3 Georgia
Spread: Alabama by 13
Here’s another (you guessed it, rematch), but it’s one we’ve been waiting for since January. And the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Alabama is the best team in the country with a defense as good as it has ever been and an offense that’s unstoppable thanks to Heisman hopeful Tua Tagovailoa. The numbers prove both: the Tide is scoring 49 points per game and giving up 14.
Tua. ‘Nuff said. (photo, CBS Sports)
But if there’s any team out there that can pull an upset, it’s Georgia. Surprisingly similar to ‘Bama stat-wise, the defense is down just a bit from a year ago while the offense is great with Jake Fromm at the controls. Fromm’s stats are way up from last year. This year he’s 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, 8th in completion percentage, and 4th in yards per pass attempt.
With Swift and Holyfield both being fantastic as of late, the Bulldogs are capable of keeping Alabama honest on defense.
But will it be enough for UGA to pull off the upset?
Well, I don’t think so. ‘Bama is just too dominant. But wait! I think UGA is good enough to do what no other team has done–take the Tide into the 4th quarter. Then Tua will “pick them ‘Dawgs” apart.
Alabama 45, Georgia 34
