With one of the biggest upsets in recent memory (Purdue over Ohio State, that is), the field seems to have opened up.
Baylor @ #12 West Virginia
Spread: West Virginia by 13.5
With both teams coming off of byes following road losses, one team has nothing to lose (BU) while the other has no margin of error (WVU). Baylor is coming off of an impressive performance against Texas–just the most recent example of why the Bears are one of the most improved teams in the nation.
WVU’s Will Grier (photo, Blue Gold Sports)
WVU, conversely, has been struggling as of late with a much-closer-then-expected win over KU followed by a 16-point loss to a .500 Iowa State squad. One reason is a porous offensive line that has allowed Will Grier to be sacked 4.7 times over the past 3 games (120th in FBS).
This week, the stats say this will be a closer game than many people expect. The passing offenses are similar (11th for Baylor and 10th for West Virginia) as are the passing defenses (53rd and 54th, respectively).
With BU trending up and WVU trending the other way, I’ll take Baylor to cover, but not to win outright.
West Virginia 37, Baylor 31
#22 South Florida @ Houston
Spread: Houston by 7.5
Mark this: the unranked home team has absolutely no reason to lose to the ranked team. Say what? Yes. It’s because Houston has played more solidly overall than USF. Conversely, the Bulls have struggled against a less-than-threatening schedule. USF’s average margin of victory is 8 points over the past four opponents, and those opponents have a combined record of 6-23. Geeez!
Houston’s King (photo, Houston Press)
Both teams play similar styles. Neither is too concerned about defense and both teams possess top-ranked offenses. But Houston has the more balanced attack. That’s thanks to the play of junior QB D’Eriq King, who boasts an incredible 23-3 TD-INT ratio, which places him 6th nationally in passing efficiency.
The problem for Houston is that their Heisman contender defensive tackle, Ed Oliver, is questionable for the game. His loss could hamper the team’s ability to stop the Bulls’ rushing attack, which is led by Jordan Cronkrite.
Regardless, though, UH has home-field advantage, a more balanced attack, and a more impressive resume. I expect USF’s streak of close wins to end in Houston. In fact, I pick the Cougars to win big.
Houston 38, South Florida 24
#20 Iowa @ #18 Penn State
Spread: Penn State by 6.5
Here are two teams that got close to a breakout, then lost at home (Iowa to Wisconsin, PSU to Michigan State). Those outcomes make this a must-win game.
Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz (photo, Larry Brown Sports)
With higher ranking and the luxury of playing at home, some might think the Lions have the edge. But the flat-out reality is that these Hawkeyes match up well with PSU. One reason is that the Hawks have one of the best defenses in the country–3rd in total defense, 5th in scoring defense, and (most troubling for Penn State) the 2nd-best rush defense.
Those stats auger trouble for the rush-heavy Penn State offense–especially given how it has performed over the last few weeks. At one point, PSU’s offensive numbers led the country. Not now.
Besides, this game means more to the Hawks (still in contention for the B1G West) than it does for the Lions (out of playoff contention). To add more spice, it’s a revenge game for Iowa (lost to PSU last year).
All in all, then, I think Iowa will return the favor this time, beating Penn St. in a close one.
Iowa 23, Penn State 20
#11 Kentucky @ Missouri
Spread: Missouri by 7
Vegas’ disrespect for UK continues, even as the ‘Cats pick up wins. They’re 7-point underdogs to a team that’s winless in SEC play. Go figure!
Courtesy: UK Athletics
But perhaps the line is understandable, given how Kentucky let Vandy hang around for the entire game last week. Still, though, I don’t buy it. Kentucky is 6-1 and ranked #11. Its defense allows the fewest PPG in the Power 5 at 12.9, and the team has a furious rushing attack, headed by Benny Snell Jr.
On the other side of the field, Missouri’s 0-3 SEC record is somewhat deceiving with two of those losses coming at the hands of powerhouse Alabama and Georgia. The third was to USC on the road by two points. And the Tigers absolutely demolished Memphis at home last week as QB Drew Lock threw 4 TDs and went 23 for 29.
While I expect Lock to keep Mizzou in the game–despite UK’s relentless defense–I also think UK’s rushing attack will carry the day.
MU will keep it close, but the Wildcats will win outright.
Kentucky 24, Missouri 20
#14 Washington State @ Stanford
Spread: Stanford by 3
This is Custer’s Last Stand as far as a Pac-12 playoff spot is concerned. So the Cougs have a lot to lose if they don’t come out of Palo Alto with a win.
WSU’s Mike Leach (photo, spokesman.com)
The good news is that WSU should have success against the Cardinal. For one thing, they have the nation’s best passing offense, led by senior QB Gardner Minshew, who possesses a top-10 completion percentage and is 6th in points responsible for. And, this week, the Pullman’s are going up against a defensive squad that ranks 97th nationally in passing yards allowed.
Stanford faces another challenge, too: its offense. The Cardinal have had trouble moving the ball, ranked 99th in scoring and 126th in rushing. While that’s bad enough, this week SU will face WSU’s 21st-best passing defense.
Wazzou just has too many strengths. Stanford will keep it close at home, but (in the end) the Cougars will take care of business and take an outright win.
Washington State 27, Stanford 20
#9 Texas @ Oklahoma State
Spread: Texas by 3.5
Hopes are high again in Austin because the Longhorns have exceeded expectations after a rocky start to the season. But a loss to underperforming OSU would quell excitement and end UT’s Big 12 championship hopes, too.
Does Herman have Texas back? (photo, UT Athletics)
The good news for Texas is Sam Ehlinger is back at QB. And he’ll need to be at the top of his game if the ‘Horns hope to leave Stillwater with a W. I say that because I don’t think UT is as good as many fans and analysts believe. Here’s why:
–UT’s “big wins” (sans Oklahoma) have lost their luster–TCU and USC have a combined 7-7 record.
–Outside of KSU, the ‘Horns haven’t been tested on the road. And, even against the ‘Cats, UT barely snuck out of Manhatten with a win (5-point victory after nearly blowing a 19-point lead).
–Don’t ignore that 7-point home win v. 1-6 Tulsa.
This week, the OSU tandem of Taylor Cornelius and Justice Hill will present problems to an up-and-down Texas D. Texas doesn’t defend the pass particularly well (80th in FBS in pass yards allowed), which should allow Cornelius (13th in pass yards per game) to pressure Texas’ secondary. In fairness, though, the Cowpokes will be challenged by the ‘Horns’ dangerous offense with Ehlinger and freshman tailback Keaontay Ingram.
Yes, I have concerns about UT, but I can’t bring myself to pick OSU to spring an upset. Texas will barely escape on the road (again).
Texas 34, Oklahoma State 31
Game of the Week
#8 Florida vs. #6 Georgia
Spread: Georgia by 6.5
For the first time in six, long years, these bitter rivals are playing for a spot in the SEC Championship game. And the story of this match-up is defense (UGA #17 and UF 22nd nationally in total defense). But with both teams possessing similar strengths, identical records, nearly-identical rankings, and the game being at a neutral site, it’s difficult to identify who has the advantage–until you look at the respective schedules.
Let the cocktails begin! (photo, Wikipedia)
The Gators blew out rival Tennessee, a team that has played them close in previous years; beat a formidable defense in MSU on the road; and took care of business against highly ranked LSU. The only blunder came in a 1-loss to Kentucky. UGA, on the other hand, failed its only real test thus far (LSU).
I think turnovers will be the difference in this game. Only two teams in the country force more turnovers than Florida. Meanwhile, Georgia turned over the ball FOUR TIMES against LSU. With that, I anticipate UF to force 2-3 turnovers.
I’ll take the Gators to stop the Bulldogs late and remain on the road to Atlanta.
Florida 24, Georgia 21
