The top teams? Wait! Look what happened last week. Here’s what I expect this week.
Michigan State @ #7 Penn State
Spread: Penn State by 13.5
If the Nittany Lions are gonna’ have any chance to make the playoff (after losing to Ohio State), they will have to beat Michigan State. But regardless of Sparty’s recent troubles, the Green and White match up with PSU. MSU’s #1 rushing defense nationally could spell trouble for Penn State’s #12 rushing offense.
That said, I expect the Lions to be focused and ready. Penn State’s top-5 scoring offense–with McSorley and Sanders, among others–will be too much for MSU. Besides, the Happy Valley crowd will be anxious for a Lions’ win, especially after watching last year’s blunder against MSU in East Lansing.
I predict that PSU will get the job done at home … but just not as much as Vegas expects. Look for Sparty to cover the two-TD spread.
Penn State 35, Michigan State 24
Baylor @ #11 Texas
Spread: Texas by 17
UT has gone from the role of hunter to that of the hunted. Who would have thought? And this week, the ‘Horns have a chance to show just how “back” they really are.
There’s plenty of reasons for optimism in Austin–thanks to the recent heroics of Sam Ehlinger–and UT should be favored in every remaining game. But here’s the thing: UT can’t afford to be overly optimistic against any team, especially Baylor. The Bears are coming off of a win against K-State and that translates into confidence walking into Austin.
The problem for BU is defense. The Bears are dead last in the Big XII in defensive efficiency, which should mean a lot of points for Texas. But don’t underestimate Charlie Brewer and the Bears’ dangerous receiving corps. The 9th-best passing O in the land will go up against a Texas D that’s ranked 82nd.
I expect Baylor to keep this one surprisingly close. The Bears just won’t win this shootout.
Texas 54, Baylor 40
#10 Washington @ #15 Oregon
Spread: Washington by 3
With Stanford stumbling, largely as a result of Bryce Love’s injuries, this game appears to be a defining contest for the Pac-12 North championship. That means it’s a must-win game for both teams.
U-Dub looks to be a tough nut for Oregon to crack. Looking elite at times, the Huskies played a good Auburn team down to the wire and blew out then-ranked BYU. But, at other times, UW didn’t look like a Top 25 team–barely beating ASU at home and struggling against inept UCLA. The Huskies appear to be the Auburn of the Pac-12–a dominant defense combines with an inconsistent offense.
For Oregon, Justin Herbert remains stellar. He leads the nation’s 7th-most-efficient offense, But the Ducks’ defense is another story. It gave up points against Stanford after leading by 17 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.
In the end, I trust the Ducks’ offense more than I trust the Huskies’ defense. With the Ducks having home field advantage–coupled with Washington’s inconsistencies–I pick UO to pull the upset.
Oregon 31, Washington 28
#8 Central Florida @ Memphis
Spread: Central Florida by 4.5
UCF has returned to college football’s top-10, but they’ll need to play like a top-ten team to leave the Liberty Bowl with a ‘W.’ The Knights certainly have the firepower to do just that. The 3rd-best offense in the land is led by the proficient McKenzie Milton– ‘Mr. Everything’ for UCF. He’s 6th in the country in points responsible for and works in tandem with a spread rushing attack, which is the country’s 10th-best.
While the Knights can score some points, Memphis is no slouch on that score. Junior RB Darrell Henderson is 2nd only to Jonathan Taylor in rushing yards per game; and sophomore Brady White, who’s thrown 15 TDs with only one pick, is 7th in the country in passing efficiency.
Statwise, these teams are quite comparable. Because of that, it’s tempting to go pick the home team to pull off an upset, But I’ll stick with the Knights. The consolation prize for the Tigers? UCF won’t cover the spread.
Central Florida 38, Memphis 35
#6 West Virginia @ Iowa State
Spread: West Virginia by 4.5
WVU is the only remaining unbeaten in the Big XII. But that status could change Saturday in Ames. This game has ‘trap’ written all over it.
That’s because ISU’s 2-3 record is deceptive. The Cyclones have played every team close. And last week they debuted true freshman QB Brock Purdy, who led Iowa State to a big road victory over then-ranked Oklahoma State. Purdy went 18-23 passing, had 84 yards rushing and accounted for 5 total TDs.
Yes, WVU has a fantastic offense–led by Will Grier–and a receiving corps to die for in Marcus Simms and David Sills V. But there’s a problem. The Mountaineers has a tendency to burn out in the 2nd half, turning the ball over and allowing other teams that have no business playing the Mountaineers close … to do just that.
I expect this one to be tight. WVU will jump to a 2-3 possession lead at halftime. Then the ‘Clones will show their resilience, just like they’ve done all year. But I don’t think ISU has enough to win the game. Holgorsen’s squad has simply too many weapons and WVU will slip out of Ames with a win. They’ll cover the spread (barely), too.
West Virginia 34, Iowa State 28
#17 Wisconsin @ #9 Michigan
Spread: Michigan by 6.5
A classic B1G slugfest is in store in a game that will likely make or break each team’s playoff hopes.
Michigan seems to have found its rhythm offensively. Shea Patterson is as efficient as advertised with a 68.8% completion percentage. Senior tailback Karan Higdon leads a top-15 rushing offense corps. And, on defense, the Wolverines boast the nation’s best overall defensive unit–1st in total defense and rushing yards allowed, 6th in rushing defense, 9th in efficiency, and 10th in scoring.
On the other side of the field, Wisconsin hasn’t been impressive. The Badgers most dominant performance was in Week 2 with a ho-hum 17 point victory over 0-5 Nebraska. And that BYU loss at home (Ouch!) is looking worse by the week. Jonathan Taylor may be the nation’s rushing leader, but I think he’ll be lucky to crack 100 yards against UM. Hornibrook has been decent enough–just not enough to help the Badgers’ one-dimensional attack.
The bottom line? Home-standing Michigan has too much for these Badgers.
Michigan 27, Wisconsin 17
Game of the Week
#3 Georgia @ # 13 LSU
Spread: Georgia by 7
The biggest game in the SEC so far this year this year gives one team a chance for a statement win (UGA) and the other team redemption from a loss (LSU).
Georgia, the best team in the SEC East, is 2nd nationally in overall efficiency (#4 offensively, #2 defensively). Jake Fromm has performed phenomenally as a second-year starter. He’s 4th in the country in passing efficiency, making all the throws he needs to make for the Bulldogs to dominate. Preseason All-American CB, Deandre Baker, leads the team in picks and pass breakups. He’s just one piece of a defense that, while young at several positions, is talented and dangerous.
LSU, on the other hand, has been up-and-down offensively–up against ‘Ole Miss, down against UF. And I don’t think LSU will score many points against UGA. While Joe Burrow is an upgrade at QB from previous seasons, he’s gone over 60% passing in only once this year (‘Ole Miss). That doesn’t auger success against Georgia’s strong defense.
Nonetheless, Death Valley offers the best home field advantage in all of college football. That alone should give the Dawgs reason to be worried. Another reason is the Bayou Bengals’ physical defense, which is led by preseason All-Americas Devin White and Greedy Williams.
I think the game will be close–a defensive struggle the whole way through. But there’s no question about one thing: UGA has stronger units on both sides of the ball. The D should be able to hold off the Tigers, even though LSU will be aided by its own solid defense and those rabid home fans.
Georgia 27, LSU 21
