Cross-divisional and cross-river rivals collide, and a few surprise contenders have a chance to prove they can win on the road.
#6 LSU @ #20 Florida
Spread: LSU by 3
The biggest game in the SEC this week features two bitter rivals. LSU has overachieved to start the season, netting key victories over Miami and Auburn. Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow and a stifling defense are the reasons for the Bengals’ fast start. And now the Tigers have to venture away from Baton Rouge to take on yet another ranked opponent in a key game–and a chance to build further momentum before taking on Georgia and ‘Bama in future marquee games.
On the other hand, Florida’s loss to Kentucky doesn’t look nearly as bad today it did when it happened. Besides, UF’s stifling defense ranks 4th in the country in efficiency and forces more turnovers than anyone–except for Kansas (of all teams).
So far LSU has passed every test it has taken, but with the way Florida is playing now, this should be a back-and-forth affair that will come down to a last-minute stop.
LSU has shown that it’s able to beat good teams away from home, and I don’t expect anything different this week. I’ll take the Tigers to win and I also think the spread is right.
LSU 24, Florida 21
#13 Kentucky @ Texas A&M
Spread: Texas A&M by 6
The UK Wildcats (the football version, that is) have shocked the sports world. Their defense ranks 3rd in points allowed, having given up 7 TDs in 5 games. Only Auburn and Washington have done better. Offensively, UK possesses a serious Heisman candidate in Benny Snell, who ranks 4th nationally in rushing yards. And Snell has gotten those yards against teams like Florida and Mississippi State.
There’s hype in Lexington (understandably so) with a gigantic showdown v. Georgia looming down the road. But the ‘Cats can’t afford to look ahead. Yes, A&M struggled against Arkansas and were blown out by ‘Bama, but they also gave Clemson a game. The Aggies have potential with QB Kellen Mond and Jimbo Fisher’s coaching staff.
Having said that, Kentucky gives me no reason to pick against them. UK has found a way to consistently overcome adversity. I’ll take the ‘Cats in a close one.
Kentucky 24, Texas A&M 20
#8 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Spread: Auburn by 4
The reeling Bulldogs–losers of two in a row–now have to play host to a Top-10 team. That’s not an ideal situation to score a bounce-back win. But Auburn hasn’t exactly been dominant either. The Tigers’ average margin of victory is less than 12 points vs. FBS opponent and, last week, they had to hold onto a one-possession lead in the 4th quarter to beat Southern Miss.
But I just don’t see MSU’s offense waking up against the Tigers’ 3rd-best scoring defense and 8th-best rushing defense. And Auburn’s one weakness–passing defense–may not be much of a weakness in this game. MSU’s Nick Fitzgerald is underperforming with a 49.1% pass completion rate and 11 sacks.
Typically in a game like this, I wouldn’t pick the Fightin’ Malzahn’s to cover the spread. But things tilt significantly in the War Eagles favor. Take Auburn and the points.
Auburn 24, Mississippi State 10
#4 Notre Dame @ #25 Virginia Tech
Spread: Notre Dame by 5.5
The Irish are sitting pretty after thumping hated Stanford. Now it gets a chance to play in the toughest remaining game on the schedule (64% win chances according to the FPI). That means ND has a chance to go unbeaten. Here’s why (ND’s win chances per the FPI):
Pittsburgh: 96.0%
Navy: 96.8%
Northwestern: 80.5%
FSU: 91.7%
Syracuse: 78.3%
USC: 66.5%
The Irish look unstoppable with Ian Book at quarterback. He’s completing 73% of his passes and has over 300 ypg, 6 TDs, and 0 interceptions. Then combine Book’s performance with what tailback Dexter Williams can do. Williams had over 160 yards rushing against Stanford in his first career start. Throw in ND’s more-than-capable defense and what you end up with is arguably the most complete team Brian Kelly has had since arriving in South Bend.
The problem is that the Hokies are in the way of everything that’s possible. After getting humbled by Old Dominion, Tech bounced back, dominating then-unbeaten Duke on the road. Backup QB Ryan Willis has done well replacing Josh Jackson, throwing 3 TDs and not making crucial mistakes. And Bud Foster’s defense has stepped up after playing atrociously against the Monarchs.
But until the Irish show signs of faltering, I’m going to continue picking them. ND should take care of VT and cover the spread along the way.
Notre Dame 34, Virginia Tech 20
Game of the Week
#19 Texas vs. #7 Oklahoma
Spread: Oklahoma by 7.5
Ah! I love the feeling in the pit of my stomach before this game. The hatred these two programs have for each other is palpable. And, to make matters even juicier, this looks to be the best match-up since 2012. It just didn’t look that way a few weeks ago.
But, now, the ‘Horns loss to Maryland is in the rearview mirror. At 4-1 for the year, UT has thumped two then-ranked teams in a row and then manhandled K-State defensively. Texas is benefitting from a one-two punch. Defensively, the ‘Horns are allowing fewer than 20 points a game. Offensively, they’re getting improved play from Sam Ehlinger, who has completed 75% of his passes in the last two games and hasn’t thrown a pick since playing Maryland. And the otherwise mediocre Texas rushing attack seems to have discovered a threat in true freshman Keaontay Ingram. Despite battling injuries, Ingram is averaging over 6 ypc.
What does it all mean? The Longhorns have a fighting chance against their arch-rivals from Norman.
But wait! OU’s Kyler Murray, an absolute beast is in the Heisman discussion. He has thrown 17 touchdown passes, has only two interceptions, and leads the nation (by far) in yards per completion (19). One reason is that he has studs in the receiving corps, most notably CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown.
The fly in the ointment for OU is defense. The Sooners are ranked 90th nationally in total defense and haven’t yet played a team as capable offensively as Texas.
I expect this one to stay within a touchdown. But with how well Murray has been playing–and with all the offensive weapons OU has–I think the Sooners will take care of business, winning late.
Oklahoma 37, Texas 30
