This week will a big effect on how the Playoff will shake out. Here’s what we should expect.
#6 Georgia @ #10 Kentucky
Spread: Georgia by 9.5
Wait! Kentucky is in the Top 10?! And this is the biggest game in the SEC East! Wow! Needless to say, Kroger Field will be packed and loud this Saturday.
Courtesy: wildcatbluenation.com
Georgia’s well-balanced offense will be put to the test by UK’s Josh Allen-led defense, which is the best scoring defense in the country. I don’t expect the Dawgs to eclipse 24 points.
UK will be playing in its biggest game since the 1950s. The ‘Cats biggest challenge will be scoring. UK ranks 101st nationally in scoring, while Georgia ranks 14th in scoring defense.
While I expect emotion to keep Kentucky within one possession, in the end, UGA’s weapons will be too much to overcome. That includes the ‘Dawgs formidable running game, led by Holyfield and Swift.
Georgia 21, Kentucky 17
#9 West Virginia @ #16 Texas
Spread: Texas by 2.5
Will WVU keep its title hopes alive? (photo, Big 12 Conference/West Virginia University)
This is the most important game remaining in the Big XII schedule. Home-standing Texas has been up-and-down this year. The down includes last week’s disappointing road loss at Oklahoma State. WVU, which was ranked in the Top 10 until being drubbed by Iowa State. is coming off a dominating home effort against Baylor.
The biggest concern for Texas is pass defense. The ‘Horns 86th standing in passing yards allowed doesn’t line up well with the Mountaineers’ 8th-ranked passing yardage per game. Will UT be able to stop Grier and a slew of potent receivers? I don’t think so. And can Texas move the ball effectively against WVU? I don’t think so, either.
Texas’ inconsistency and weaknesses will be the difference in this game. Still, though, I don’t expect a WVU blowout. I’ll take West Virginia, but it will be close.
West Virginia 35, Texas 31
#14 Penn State @ #5 Michigan
Spread: Michigan by 10
Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh
This B1G game will tell us a lot about Michigan’s legitimacy as a Playoff contender. Also at issue is whether PSU has recovered from home losses against OSU and MSU. Yes, the Lions eeked out a win against Iowa last week, but UM is everything that the Hawkeyes are–and more–with a better offense and defense.
The numbers say so. UM has the nation’s best defense overall (1st in total defense and 6th in scoring) and has a solid offense, too, with Karan Higdon’s running and Shea Patterson’s passing. Those two spearhead long drives. Michigan is 7th in the nation in possession time.
Bottom line: there’s no clear weakness for Penn State to exploit. What’s more, the game is in The Big House. I’ll take the Wolverines to cover.
Michigan 28, Penn State 17
#3 Notre Dame @ Northwestern
Spread: Notre Dame by 8
ND may be unbeaten and ranked 3rd or 4th (depending on the poll), but don’t let those stats fool you into thinking this game will be a breeze for the Irish.
Will they? (photo: gamedayr.com)
Northwestern, despite being 5-3 overall (including an ugly home loss to Akron), is a solid 5-1 in conference play. The ‘Cats have quality B1G victories over Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State. On a 4-game winning streak, NU has beaten two ranked teams by double digits scores and nearly beat Michigan, losing a lead will less than 5 minutes to play.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, has struggled recently against the likes of middling Virginia Tech and underachieving Pittsburgh. QB Ian Book, who started with a 7-0 TD-INT ratio, has gone 6-4 since then.
This week, the Irish will play a night game in a hostile environment against a team that can play with just about anybody. But ND has a significant advantage talent-wise and also has the ability to move the ball through the air (7th-best passing efficiency).
Yes, I’ll take ND, but I don’t see the Irish covering an 8-point spread.
Notre Dame 27, Northwestern 24
Game of the Week
#1 Alabama @ #4 LSU
Spread: Alabama by 14
It feels like deja vu. Even with Tua Tagovailoa’s prolific play and Bama’s overall dominance, I think this is the Tigers’ best chance to beat the Tide since 2011 when LSU won 9-6 in what many people called “The Game of the Century.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UeclbHNjbM
This time around, both teams remind me of the 2012 confrontation. ‘Bama was a 9-point favorite and won by 4. My point? This year’s 14-point Vegas line is absurd! It’s a night game in Baton Rouge, for crying out loud!
In three SEC home games this year–two of which were against ranked squads–LSU has won by an average of 21.6 points. Yes, Devin White missing the first half will undoubtedly hurt the Tigers, but the defense is still strong overall. Defense isn’t the concern for LSU; offense is. It remains to be seen if the Tigers can move the ball against a Tide defense that ranks 10th nationally in points allowed per game.
I think UA’s defensive play should be enough to escape Baton Rouge with a ‘W,” but this one will be a nail-biter–especially if it’s a one-possession game by the time White enters the game. And that’s exactly what I expect to happen. I’ll take ‘Bama to win, but not to cover.
Alabama 27, LSU 21
