The Ravens are playing the incomparable Drew Brees at home. Brees will get in his shots, but he’ll fall just short of getting the win.
WHAT: Week Seven vs. New Orleans Saints
WHEN: 4:05 p.m. (ET); Sunday, October 21
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Saints, 4-1; Ravens, 4-2
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 5-1; Ravens lead at home, 3-1, with the teams having split their last two Baltimore meetings
TV: WBFF-TV (Channel 45) (Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston, booth; Laura Okmin, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Jarret Johnson, booth; Kirk McEwen, sidelines)
REFEREE: John Parry
About the Saints
—The New Orleans Saints began their existence as an NFL expansion team in 1967–just as pro football was expanding into the Deep South. The previous year franchises had been granted to Atlanta (NFL) and Miami (AFL). The team played at Tulane University until 1975 when it moved to what is now known as the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
—Why the ‘Saints?” The 1966 announcement of the team’s birth took place on November 1, which is All Saints’ Day in the Catholic faith.
—Even though New Orleans is a frequent Super Bowl host city, the Saints have been mostly spectators. The team did not even post a winning record for its first 20 seasons, reaching the .500 mark only twice. New Orleans has made 11 playoff appearances (one more than Baltimore’s total) in the past 31 years with six division titles (including last year) and five wild-card spots. The Saints are 1-1 in the NFC Championship Game, losing to Chicago in 2006 and beating Minnesota three years later.
—When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they beat the Saints in all three head-to-head meetings, with two of them coming at Memorial Stadium. Baltimore outscored New Orleans in those games, 74-30. The Colts’ 1973 win over the Saints was one of only four wins that Baltimore had that year. Later, New Orleans was the second home opponent in Ravens’ history. The Saints lost, 17-10, to the new franchise in September 1996.
—The Saints are coming off a bye week. The franchise is 15-14 in post-bye games. In 2006, the Ravens played in New Orleans following their bye and won, 35-22. The teams have met four times in pre-season play, including a 2005 game at the Superdome, which took place just as Hurricane Katrina was bearing down on the city.
—New Orleans is entering a very tough portion of its schedule with three road games in a four-week stretch. The team plays at Baltimore, Minnesota, and Cincinnati, with a home game in between against the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams. However, New Orleans close the season with two straight home games (Pittsburgh and Carolina).
–The Saints are still a pass-heavy team. This year, though, there’s a bit more balance: they’ve run the ball 127 times while passing it 200 (including sacks allowed). The team has allowed just eight sacks and has had to punt just 13 times through five games. (Note: Tennessee had allowed only nine sacks of its quarterback before playing the Ravens, who took down Marcus Mariota a team-record 11 times.)
—The New Orleans offense has been prolific. The team ranks sixth in average possession time, eighth in the Red Zone, and second in first downs per game. The team has a zero turnover ratio, with only two interceptions on defense, but none thrown by the offense–the only team in the league that can claim that through six weeks. New Orleans is one of seven top-ten offenses that the Ravens must play over their final ten games.
—Through five games, New Orleans is ranked third in total offense (19th rushing, third passing, first scoring at 36 points per game). That point average would be the best over a full season since the 2013 Denver Broncos squad that reached the Super Bowl. On defense. New Orleans is 18th in total defense (1st vs. rush at 71 yards per game, 30th vs. pass with a 115.4 opponents’ passer rating, 26th scoring).
—The Saints have committed 32 accepted penalties, the fifth-fewest in the league and 11 fewer than Baltimore. However, their five defensive pass interference calls are tied for the league lead and their eight offensive holding fouls are tied for the third-most. No individual player has been charged with more than three penalties.
—Head coach Sean Payton, the 14th head coach in Saints history, is in his 12th season with the team. He led the team from 2006-2011 before being forced to sit out the 2012 campaign by suspension linked to the “Bountygate” scandal. In his playing days, Payton was a replacement quarterback during the 1987 players’ strike. His record is 116-77 (including playoffs), and he led the team to top-ten offensive rankings every year since 2009. Previously, he was the New York Giants’ offensive coordinator the year that the team faced Baltimore in Super Bowl XXXV.
—Payton’s coaching staff includes linebackers coach (Baltimore native and former Ravens defensive coordinator) Mike Nolan, whose father Dick was the Saints’ head coach from 1978-80. Nolan came to the Ravens in 2001 as a wide receivers coach before ascending to the top defensive job.
—Quarterback Drew Brees is in his 18th year in the league, but Baltimore is the only team he has never beaten. He has gone winless in four starts with nine touchdowns, eight interceptions, ten sacks, and an 84.5 passer rating. But the 11-time Pro Bowl pick needs just one touchdown pass to become the fourth quarterback in league history to have 500 scoring passes (P. Manning, Favre, Brady). This year, he has 11 touchdowns, no interceptions, and an NFL-best 122.3 rating. Two weeks ago, he passed Manning at the top of the passing yardage list, having accumulated over 72,000 passing yards. Backup quarterback Taysom Hill has been sometimes used in a Lamar Jackson-type role.
—Alvin Kamara, the Saints’ 2017 third-round pick and the league’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, has had to be the workhorse back with Mark Ingram serving a four-game suspension. Kamara is averaging 4.8 ypc and he has scored five of the Saints’ ten rushing touchdowns. Ingram returned two weeks ago against Washington and gained 53 yards on 16 carries with two scores. Hill has averaged 7.5 ypc in a Wildcat-type role. Ex-New England back Mike Gillislee has as many carries as Ingram.
—In all, 15 different players have caught passes from Brees through the season’s first five games, but this unit isn’t nearly as deep as in previous years. Free agent departures are one reason (including new Ravens slot man Willie Snead IV). Another reason is that the team is trying to achieve better balance. Only four Saints have 12 or more catches, led by 2016 second-round pick Michael Thomas (Ohio State), who has a team-high 46 catches, an 11-yard average, and three of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns. Kamara has 38 receptions out of the backfield and former Ravens tight end Ben Watson has 17 grabs. Veteran speedster Ted Ginn, Jr., who played against Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVII for San Francisco, has 12 receptions. Rookie Tre’Quan Smith is coming off a 111-yard game two weeks ago against Washington.
–-In a league riddled with offensive line play that’s inconsistent at best, the Saints might have one of the league’s best units. NO allowed only 20 sacks last season and has permitted only eight so far this year. The line is also good at opening run-game holes while committing few penalties outside of the occasional hold. Left tackle Terron Armstead seems to have shaken off the injury bug and 2017 first-round pick Ryan Ramczyk became a starter at right tackle last year due to his mauling run-blocking technique. Center Max Unger, who’s in his 11th year in the league, used to block for Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. Right tackle Larry Warford came over from Detroit and has proven to be durable.
–-The Saints have only accumulated 12 sacks through five games. But nine of them have come from their four-man front, a unit that includes eight-year veteran end Cameron Jordan, who had 13 sacks last year and has a team-high five this season. Third-year man Sheldon Rankins has a pair of sacks. Young prospect Marcus Davenport, a first-round pick, has two quarterback takedowns.
—With a team-high 43 tackles and two sacks, weak-side linebacker Demario Davis (a free-agent pickup from the New York Jets) is the unquestioned leader of that unit. It’s a unit that has undergone significant turnover in recent seasons. Former Notre Dame standout Manti Te’o mans the middle with AJ Klein on the strong side. Klein can also move to the middle in passing situations. Alex Anzalone is ready to back up at all three spots.
—The Saints’ cornerback tandem is young and tough to throw on. 2017 Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshawn Lattimore is on one side and third-year player Ken Crawley (20 tackles, third on the team) is on the other. And New Orleans has a good safety rotation despite the departure of Kenny Vaccaro. Vonn Bell (28 tackles, second on the team), Marcus Williams (15, fourth) and Carolina Panthers’ free-agent pickup Kurt Coleman all see plenty of playing time.
—Kicker Wil Lutz saw time in the Baltimore training camp as an option to take the load off Justin Tucker. Lutz has made a name for himself in New Orleans by hitting 84 percent of his kicks in nearly two and a half seasons. This year, he is 11-for-12, but he has not attempted a field goal over 50 yards so far. Lutz has missed one extra point.
—Punter Thomas Morstead’s 42-yard net average ranked him sixth in the league last year. This year, he’s netting 44.6 and has allowed only 31 return yards on 13 punts.
—Backup quarterback Hill has run back seven of the Saints’ 11 kickoff returns this year. He’s averaging just over 24 yards per return. Kamara will also run back an occasional kick or punt. But the Saints have gotten next to nothing from their punt-return team (3.4 yards per return). The better news is that their punt-coverage unit ranks fifth in the league–allowing only 5.2 yards per return and no runback longer than 16 yards.
Prediction
Except for a puzzling effort in Cleveland, the Ravens have an energy about them that hasn’t been seen in recent years. It’s a tempo and attitude–particularly on defense–that suggests they can play with any team in the league.
The Saints, on the other hand, were “A Minnesota Miracle” away from going to the NFC title game last year. They have a talented roster that’s off to a good start in a tough division.
The difference in this game may be that the Ravens begin a home-dominated stretch of games. At home, its ultra-tough defense takes things to another level.
There’s no doubt that Brees will get in his shots, but I think he’ll fall just short of getting a win.
Ravens 30, Saints 27
