NFL Week 6: Ravens-Titans Prediction

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October road games have been the Ravens’ Achilles heel. It’s October. Woe is Baltimore!


WHAT: Week Six at Tennessee Titans

WHEN: 4:25 p.m. (ET); Sunday, October 14

WHERE: Nissan Stadium; Nashville (69,143)

RECORDS: Ravens, 3-2; Titans, 3-2

LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Titans lead, 10-9; Oilers/Titans lead at home, 6-4, with the teams having split their last four Nashville meetings

TV: WJZ-TV (Channel 13) (Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon, booth; Steve Tasker, sidelines)

RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Jarret Johnson, booth; Justin Forsett, sidelines)

REFEREE: Carl Cheffers

ABOUT THE TITANS

The Titans are tentatively scheduled to wear their dark blue uniform tops for this game, which is their traditional home-field look. The Ravens will wear their white jerseys and either black or white pants. Country music star Clay Walker will sing The National Anthem and also play at halftime.

The Tennessee Titans began their existence in 1960 as the Houston Oilers–an American Football League charter franchise. They moved out of Texas after the 1996 season, operating as the Tennessee Oilers, and played at the Liberty Bowl in 1997 and at Vanderbilt University in 1998. They moved to the current stadium in 1999 with a new name, the Titans. 

Just like the Ravens’ home venue, the Titans’ stadium has had four names since it opened: Adelphia Coliseum (1999-2002), The Coliseum (2002-2005), LP Field (2006-15), and the present-day moniker, Nissan Stadium.

The Houston/Tennessee franchise has made 22 playoff appearances in 58 full seasons of operation. They’ve won nine division titles (six in Houston), the AFC Central crown in 2000, and the AFC South in 2002 and 2008. Houston won the AFL championship in its first two years (1960 and 1961). During the Super Bowl era, the franchise has won just one AFC Championship game–beating Jacksonville to advance to Super Bowl XXXIV–when they narrowly lost to the St. Louis Rams.

When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they split six games with the Oilers, beating Houston in 1983, 20-10, in what would turn out to be the Colts’ last game in Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium. In 1996, the Ravens’ first year of operation, the Oilers won both intradivisional meetings with Baltimore before moving on to Tennessee.

The Ravens and Titans have met three times in postseason play with the road team winning every game. The 2000 Ravens won a Divisional round game in Nashville, 24-10, but the Titans returned the favor in a wild-card game three years later in Baltimore, 20-17. In 2008, the Ravens got a late field goal to pull out a 13-10 Divisional win on the road.

The Ravens were the first visitors to win in the Titans’ new stadium, winning 24-23 in a November 2000 thriller. Tennessee is one of five currently-operating stadiums where the Ravens were the first visitors to win. Baltimore also did it in Denver, Pittsburgh, Washington, and New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium.

Last year, Tennessee was the only Ravens opponent to play Baltimore after coming off its bye. The Titans won, 23-20. After Sunday’s home game against the Ravens, Tennessee plays four of its next five on the road– with a bye week breaking up the stretch. The schedule includes a game against the Chargers in London. The Titans have won 12 of their last 14 home games but, after playing the Ravens, they have just one home game until December 2.

Through five games, Tennessee is ranked 29th in total offense (17th rushing, 29th passing, 29th scoring) and 7th in total defense (26th vs. rush, third vs. pass, tied for third scoring, allowing 17.2 points per game). The Titans’ turnover ratio is minus-1 (equal with Baltimore). The team has lost two fumbles and recovered two fumbles. But three turnovers in their own end doomed the Titans in last week’s 13-12 loss at Buffalo.

The Titans have played defensively-oriented football over the first five weeks, ranking in the bottom third in red-zone and third-down offense, but among the top ten in third-down and red-zone defense. In fact, Tennessee’s red-zone defense has allowed touchdowns on just 23.1 percent of opponents’ trips inside its 20-yard line. That’s the lowest rate in the NFL.

Tennessee has committed 26 accepted penalties, seven fewer than Baltimore, and tied for the second-fewest in the NFL. The Titans’ 218 penalty yards are the league’s fifth-fewest. However, the team has been called for five defensive holding penalties, third-most in the league. Only one player has more than two individual penalties.

Tennessee has been a mostly-defensive team all year–a side of the ball that has kept this team in games. The Titans have allowed just seven first-quarter points in five games. The offense, on the other hand, has scored just three points in the second quarter and ten in the third.

Rookie head coach Mike Vrabel is the 19th head coach in Oilers/Titans franchise history. Vrabel won three Super Bowl rings as a New England Patriots linebacker and also played for the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers. After retiring as a player after the 2010 season, Vrabel became part of the Ohio State coaching staff and then moved to the Houston Texans for four seasons, serving as the team’s defensive coordinator in 2017.

Notables on the coaching staff include ex-Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees, who was also on the Navy staff from 1987-89. Pees’ son, Matt, is the Titans’ quality control coach. Strength and conditioning coach Brian Bell worked at DeMatha High in Hyattsville in 2010 and 2011.

-Quarterback Marcus Mariota is off to a slow start. He has thrown two touchdown passes, has four interceptions, and is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. His 72.3 passer rating is the lowest among qualified starters and his 676 passing yards rank him 31st in the league. Mariota is completing 63.1 percent of his passes and has been sacked just six times. Mariota is backed up by former first-round pick Blaine Gabbert, who’s with his fourth NFL team. Mariota has played once against the Ravens, throwing two touchdown passes and playing to a 100.0 rating in last year’s 23-20 win.

After DeMarco Murray retired, the Titans tried to diversify the running game with Derrick Henry and pass-catching back Dion Lewis. Lewis has only ten fewer carries than Henry, who doesn’t have a run longer than 14 yards this year. Lewis is also second on the team with 21 receptions. As a whole, the team has not broken a rushing play for longer than 26 yards all season (just seven yards longer than Baltimore’s longest carry) and has scored just two rushing touchdowns.

-Tennessee’s receivers were plagued by injuries last year, especially first-round pick Corey Davis, who was coveted by Baltimore. Davis has rebounded this year, leading the team with a 13-yard average and 26 catches, one of which was his first NFL touchdown to beat Philadelphia in OT. Tajee Sharpe caught 41 balls as a rookie two years ago before missing all of 2017. He currently has just seven catches, one for a touchdown. Tayvon Taylor, who’s billed as a deep threat, has 17 receptions (third on the team). Veteran tight end Delaine Walker, who played against the Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII, is out for the year. Tight end Luke Stocker has just five catches.

Like many offensive lines around the league, Tennessee’s unit is much better at pass blocking (nine sacks allowed in five games) than run blocking (3.7 yards per carry). The O-line quintet should be at their career peaks: LT Taylor Lewan is in his fifth year, RT Jack Conklin is in his third, C Ben Jones is in his seventh, LG Quinton Spain is in his fourth, and RG Josh Kline is in his sixth. Lewan had to leave last week’s game with a foot injury.

-Jurrell Casey, a 2011 third-round pick from Southern California, is an interior disruptive force in the mold of a Haloti Ngata and Geno Atkins. Casey paces the Titans’ three-man front with 27 tackles, three of the team’s 13 sacks, 15 quarterback pressures, and five tackles for loss. Against Baltimore, Casey has 14 tackles and a sack in three games. The unit is not that deep, though. If Casey were to get injured, the Titans’ so-far stellar defensive play could take a major hit.

-Second-year middle linebacker Jayvon Brown, a fifth-round sleeper pick in 2017 from UCLA and a teammate of the Ravens’ Kenny Young, is the team’s leading tackler with 38 stops, two sacks, and eight pressures. Veteran Wesley Woodyard is second with 35 tackles, but he sat out last week’s game with a shoulder problem. Woodyard is paired with first-round rookie Rashaan Evans (career-high six tackle last week) on the inside. Former Washington Redskins’ player, Brian Orakpo, plays opposite Brown on the outside–as does nine-year man and Titans 2010 draftee Derrick Morgan. Another ex-Redskins, Will Compton, plays inside. Former Ravens draftee, Kamalei Correa, has two sacks in limited duty.

The Titans’ secondary makes the lion’s share of the tackles. While that’s not usually ideal, it fits into a Dean Pees’ scheme. Corners Logan Ryan (two interceptions in three games against the Ravens) and Malcolm Butler have 52 tackles between them. Adoree Jackson has two of the team’s four interceptions. Safety Kevin Byard emerged as a playmaker last year with eight interceptions, including two against the Ravens. Safety Kenny Vaccaro is a former first-round Saints’ pick.

Baltimore native Darious Jennings (Gilman) has run back three kicks for a 51-yard average, including a 94-yard touchdown. Three different players have split the punt-return duties for the Titans. Adoree Jackson and ex-Atlanta Falcon Nick Williams are each averaging over 11 yards per return. Rishard Matthews, a Miami Dolphins castoff, ran back punts at a 9.5-yard rate before being released by the team.

Punter Brett Kern is coming off his first Pro Bowl invite last year. He has placed 11 of 22 punts inside the coffin corner with only two touchbacks. He is netting 43.3 yards per punt thanks, in part, to good punt coverage. Overall, the unit is allowing 7.9 yards per return. However, the kick-coverage unit, while it hasn’t been tested that much, has given up over 44 yards per return on four runbacks, including a touchdown. That average is the league’s worst.

Kicker Ryan Succop, playing in his 150th NFL game this week, has never missed a game in his ten-year NFL career. In last week’s 13-12 loss at Buffalo, he kicked four field goals–including a career-long 54-yarder–the 11th time in his career that he has had a game with four or more three-pointers. He’s 13-for-14 on field goals this year, including making all three tries from 50 or more yard. He has scored 45 of the team’s 87 total points because no other Titan has had more than one touchdown.

Prediction

The Titans aren’t one of the league’s most explosive teams, but they are playing solid defense and they showed consistency during an early-season three-game winning streak.

They noticed how Cleveland held the Ravens to nine points last week and have ex-Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees on the sideline. That means the Titans will have a good feel for what the Ravens like to do.

While Baltimore is capable of doing better than it did against the Browns, October road games have been this team’s historic Achilles heel. 

Titans 23, Ravens 16

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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