Cleveland has stumbled against what appears to be the weakest part of its schedule. Meanwhile, the Ravens have more youth, speed, and depth than at any time in recent history. I’m taking Baltimore in this match-up.
WHAT: Week Five at Cleveland Browns
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, October 7
WHERE: FirstEnergy Stadium; Cleveland (73,200)
RECORDS: Ravens, 3-1; Browns, 1-2-1
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 29-9; Ravens lead in Cleveland, 14-5, and have won four straight there, including nine of the last ten
TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Andrew Catalon, James Lofton, booth; John Schriffen, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Jarret Johnson, booth; Justin Forsett, sidelines)
REFEREE: John Hussey
About the Browns
—Along with the Baltimore Colts and San Francisco 49ers, the Browns franchise was born as part of the All-America Football Conference in 1946. Cleveland won all four of that league’s championships. Since joining the NFL in 1950, the Browns have won 18 division titles and earned 24 playoff berths. That’s tied for tenth-most in the NFL.
—The Browns’ recent history hasn’t been nearly as spectacular. The Browns are one of four franchises that have never appeared in a Super Bowl (Houston, Jacksonville, and Detroit are the others). Cleveland last won an NFL championship in 1964, two seasons before the Super Bowl was born. Since returning to the league as a 1999 expansion team, Cleveland has made just two playoff appearances (2002, 2007) and has had only one winning season (2007).
—The return game will be played December 30 in Baltimore, ending a streak that saw two of the last three return matches played in Cleveland. The Ravens have swept this head-to-head series 12 times–including in three of the last four years–while the Browns have recorded two sweeps (2001, 2007). There have been five splits–the most recent in 2015.
—Last season the Browns became the second team in the 16-game schedule era (1978-present) to lose every regular-season game (Detroit, 2008). Cleveland had lost its first 14 games in 2016—only four of them by single-digit margins—before upending the then-San Diego Chargers, 20-17, on Christmas Eve. In 2017, Cleveland lost four games (three at home) by three-point margins, including one in overtime to Tennessee. The Browns snapped a 19-game winless streak this year, but Cleveland still hasn’t won a Sunday game in 1029 days. The last Sunday win was at home v. San Francisco in 2015.
—This Sunday’s game against the Ravens is the Browns’ third home game out of four in a season-opening six-week span. They will then hit the road for four of their next six games (with the bye week in between). According to their opponents’ 2017 records, the Browns came into this year with the league’s seventh-toughest schedule and they have one of the league’s latest bye weeks (November 18).
—Through four games this season, Cleveland ranks near the bottom of NFL stats. The Browns rank 19th in total offense (second rushing at 152.8 yards per game, 24th passing, tied for tenth scoring) and 25th in total defense (23rd vs. rush, 24th vs. pass, 19th scoring).
—The Browns had a minus-12 turnover ratio in 2016, which included a league-low three fumble recoveries. Last year, the team was even worse (-28), but it has dramatically turned things around this year, leading the league at plus-7. Despite fumbling the ball nine times in four games, Cleveland has lost just two fumbles, while recovering a league-high six fumbles and forcing an NFL-best 13 takeaways.
-Through four games, Cleveland has 28 accepted penalties, one fewer than Baltimore. The Browns have been called for just four false starts and four defensive holding penalties. That’s an average of just one per game in each category.
—Cleveland has gotten off to slow starts this year, scoring just six first-quarter points in four games. The Browns have scored just 26 first-half points, but they notched 76 points (total) in the second halves of games this year. The team has achieved 11 first downs thanks to opponents’ penalties, but Cleveland’s possession-time average is a pedestrian 28:54–thanks, in part, to a below-average 33% third-down conversion rate. The team ranked 28th in that category last year.
—Former Ravens quarterbacks coach, Hue Jackson, is the Browns’ 16th full-time head coach. Jackson is in his third season with the team and fourth as a head coach. Previously, he went 8-8 in a one-year stint at Oakland (2011). Jackson’s Cleveland record is 2-33-1.
—Veteran defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, a 28-year NFL assistant, is in his second year in Cleveland. He was hired several years after being implicated in the New Orleans “Bountygate” scandal. Other coaching-staff notables include senior offensive assistant Al Saunders (Ravens, 2009-10), strength and conditioning coach Evan Marcus (Maryland, 1994), and tight ends coach Greg Seamon (Navy, 1987-88),
—None of Cleveland’s three starting quarterbacks last year–DeShone Kizer, Cody Kessler, or Kevin Hogan–won a game last year. Rookie Baker Mayfield won after replacing Tyrod Taylor two weeks ago. In two games and part of a third, Mayfield has completed 59.4 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, two interceptions, three sacks, and a passer rating of 81.3.
—The Browns’ highly-successful, grind-it-out running game is paced by ex-Ohio State star Carlos Hyde. Hyde is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry, but has a co-league-high five rushing touchdowns. Second-round pick Nick Chubb (35th overall) supplements Hyde. Duke Johnson, used more as a receiver, caught a team-high 74 passes last year and his 1825 receiving yards (since 2015) leads all NFL running backs. The Browns have run the ball 129 times so far this year–35 fewer times than pass attempts–and 15 more times than the Ravens.
—Mayfield has plenty of passing-game targets. Free-agent pickup Jarvis Landry has a team-high 24 catches, but no one else has more than the 14 hauled in by David Njoku. He’s one of three TEs (Seth DeValve and Daniel Fells are the other two) who will try to exploit the middle of the Ravens’ defense. Other receivers include Rashard Higgins with 13 catches and rookie Antonio Callaway with ten. Johnson is the only running back in the league with at least 50 catches in four straight years. Despite all of those receptions, the Browns have only four receiving scores.
–The Browns’ offensive line regressed late last season when stalwart left tackle Joe Thomas was injured and, then, retired. The new OL has been together for all but one snap all season. Undrafted left tackle Desmond Harrison (West Georgia) has been a pleasant surprise. Holdovers Joel Bitonio (left guard) and JC Tretter (center) team inside with veteran right guard Kevin Zeitler. At right tackle, there’s former Steelers starter Chris Hubbard–a player who can play anywhere along the line. The unit has done extremely well on run-blocking but has to tighten up on pass protection (four sacks per game through the season’s first month.
—The Browns are the league’s youngest team. 45 of the team’s 53 players have five or fewer years’ worth of NFL experience. Three of the exceptions are either backups are on injured reserve. Valuable offensive linemen, such as Zeitler and Tretter, are among the others.
—The Browns began the 2018 draft with 12 picks. They ended up choosing nine players, including two in each of the first two rounds.
—Last year, the Browns’ switched to a 4-3 defense and that helped their run defense drastically. The team finished seventh in the league. But the D is struggling this year, but it’s not for a lack of talent. Myles Garrett (16 tackles)–the draft’s top overall pick in 2017 and the team’s sack leader (4.5)–has fully recovered from an ankle injury. Emmanuel Ogbah mans the other end. Promising Larry Ogunjobi (13 tackles, three sacks) is at one tackle and Trevon Coley is at the other. Former Ravens’ tackle Carl Davis is currently a backup.
—Third-year middle linebacker Joe Schobert (career-high 14 tackles and sack last week vs. Oakland) and weak-side linebacker Christian Kirksey have been among the league’s leading tacklers in recent years. Kirksey was rewarded with a lucrative contract extension last year. Schobert and Kirksey spent most of last season as the only teammate pair in the NFL with over 100 tackles each. Strong-side linebacker Jamie Collins (17 tackles, a sack in the last two games against the Ravens) was acquired in a 2013 trade with New England and is the unit’s feistiest player.
—The Browns not only intercepted just seven passes last year (a franchise-record low). An old and tired secondary accounted for five of those picks. That’s why Denzel Ward (two interceptions) was the team’s choice with the fourth overall pick in the draft. Ward, who was supposed to pair with Terrance Mitchell before the latter broke his forearm, fancies himself as a shutdown corner. Safety Damarious Randall (two interceptions) (and slowed last week by a heel injury) came over from Green Bay, allowing jack-of-all-trades Jabrill Peppers to move closer to the line of scrimmage. Jeremiah McKinnon is up from the practice squad to replace Mitchell.
—Punter Britton Colquitt, who comes from a long line of family punters, is off to a slow start, netting only 35 yards per punt, partially due to poor coverage. On the bright side, Colquitt has put 14 of 30 punts inside the coffin corner. Second-year kicker Zane Gonzalez missed a pair of conversions in a loss at New Orleans and was then released from the team in favor of rookie Greg Joseph (Florida Atlantic). Since taking over, Joseph is 4-for-4 on field goals. But he has attempted only one kick outside of 29 yards.
—Cleveland’s reputation as a fine return team is taking a hit this year. Peppers is averaging only 4.3 yards per punt runback and slightly over 21 on kick returns. The coverage units are also suffering–allowing 12 yards per punt return and 27 on kickoffs. But over the last seven years, Cleveland is the only team in the league to have at least one AFC Special Teams Player of the Week award winner each year.
Prediction
The Browns’ free-agent frenzy and productive draft have many observers thinking this team could possibly contend for a playoff berth. But against what looked to be the weakest part of the schedule, Cleveland stumbled–losing to winless Oakland, tying the slumping Steelers, and beating the stumbling Jets.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have more youth, speed, and depth than at any time in recent history. Baltimore is several levels better than Cleveland–a team that’s likely to feel more growing pains as it develops competitive capacity.
In this one, I say …
Ravens 29, Browns 13
