It’s time to bring clarity to the chaos.
The initial rush of conference play created scares for some Top 10 teams. A handful of new contenders have entered the fray, too. Here’s what I think we have in store this week.
#12 West Virginia @ #25 Texas Tech
Spread: West Virginia by 5
WVU’s first game against a ranked team comes this Saturday when the Mountaineers take on the Red Raiders in Lubbock. West Virginia has been flat-out dominating early on, winning by an average of 30 points a game. Will Grier has made a strong early claim for the Heisman with the third-highest completion percentage in the country and the 12th-most passing yards.
TTU has found a proficient new signal-caller, too, in freshman Alan Bowman, who leads the nation’s top passing offense. The Red Raiders have also benefited from an improved defense, a squad that held high-powered Oklahoma State to a measly 17 points.
Add Tech’s home-field advantage and that creates a perfect scenario for an upset. While I expect this one to come down to the wire, I also anticipate Grier winning the shootout and leading the Mountaineers to a one-TD win with WVU barely covering the spread.
West Virginia 49, Texas Tech 42
Florida @ #19 Mississippi State
Spread: Mississippi State by 7
State needs to bounce back after a late collapse doomed the ‘Dogs against Kentucky last week. MSU also wants to stand tall against its former coach. It can do both, largely because this team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Nick Fitzgerald leads the offense, while Montez Sweat and Gerri Green lead the defense.
Florida, on the other hand, started the season sluggishly but bounced back by throttling the Vols in Knoxville. The Gators boast an opportunistic defense, which currently ranks 1st in the country in turnovers gained in 14 (!), and 3rd in turnover margin at +10.
So what will happen? Two proficient defenses should keep the game close, but I expect MSU to get it done in Starkville. The Bulldogs have a Top 20 rushing attack and they’ve only turned over the ball three times this year. Take MSU to cover and win.
Mississippi State 24, Florida 17
South Carolina @ #17 Kentucky
Spread: PK
Kentucky is the 2nd best team in the SEC East. (Did I just write that?) Wow! Who would have thought that possible? It’s true, though. UK is #11 nationally in both rushing offense and total defense. It’s also in the Top 30 in both passing and rushing yards allowed. It all adds up to one conclusion: these Wildcats are a very capable team.
Winning against another solid team–the USC Gamecocks–would sustain their momentum, perhaps even make some people rethink their assumptions about a pre-ordained Georgia-Alabama matchup for the SEC crown.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Capable USC QB Jake Bentley won’t cave on the road.
That said, I think UK’s Benny Snell will run over the Gamecocks’ mediocre rushing defense. He’s one reason why Kentucky should take care of business at home, running away with this game after halftime.
Kentucky 35, South Carolina 17
#24 BYU @ #11 Washington
Spread: Washington by 16.5
If you like defensive football, you’re gonna love this game. Both teams have held opponents to under 24 points a game against good competition. Washington beat a good Arizona State team. BYU took down then-5th ranked Wisconsin in Madison.
Because both teams have Top 25 scoring defenses, this game should remain within two touchdowns the whole way. And even though I think there’s a decent chance that Coach Sitake’s teams will force Washington into making offensive mistakes (BYU has forced 8 turnovers in four games), I don’t believe BYU has enough offensive weapons to penetrate the Huskies’ stout defense.
I don’t think U-Dub will cover what I see as a very generous spread, but I do think the Huskies will get the job done come Saturday.
Washington 24, BYU 14
#6 Stanford @ #8 Notre Dame
Spread: Notre Dame by 3.5
In almost any other year this would be my GOW. These are two bitter rivals and they’re championship contenders, too.
But, on the flip side, both squads have faced early-season peril. For Stanford, Bryce Love has had a slow start and the Cardinal almost walked out of Eugene with a loss. Notre Dame has had its struggles, too, largely due to the lack of offensive firepower. Now the Irish will take its chances with recycled QB Ian Book.
It all adds up to this: each team is trying to find its place in the scheme of college football. This game will go a long way toward pointing to where each may eventually settle.
Advantage goes to ND with the home-field advantage. I pick the Irish to win, but I don’t think ND will cover.
Notre Dame 27, Stanford 24
GAME OF THE WEEK
#4 Ohio State @ #9 Penn State
Spread: Ohio State by 3.5
Well. well! Isn’t this familiar? It’s OSU and PSU playing each other for B1G supremacy.
What’s new? Dwayne Haskins is. He has done a phenomenal job taking the reins from J.T. Barrett–leading the nation’s 6th-best passing offense and #3 total offense. The Buckeyes are no slouch on the other side of the ball, either–allowing only 17 points per game.
Penn State’s early scare against ASU (that’s Appalachian State, I might add) seems to have woken up the team. Since then, the Lions have averaged nearly 60 points a game, while allowing only 13 per contest–a margin that leads the country.
Trace McSorley is as stellar as ever. And in tandem with Miles Sanders, no defense has been able to pen the Lions, who currently possess the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the land.
I predict that this game will be heart-pounding, high-scoring, and incredibly tough to call. That said, PSU is on fire and OSU will be playing without Bosa. Those are two reasons why I think PSU will win by a nose and, with that, take the early lead in the B1G title hunt and the fight for a college playoff berth.
Penn State 35, Ohio State 34
